IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v58y2018icp179-199.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk contribution of crude oil to industry stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Honghai
  • Du, Donglei
  • Fang, Libing
  • Yan, Panpan

Abstract

Oil shock is an important source of risk and hence has a significant effect on the real economy and financial markets. The objective of this study is to explore the crude oil risk contribution to industry-level returns in the US stock market using the ADCC-ΔCoVaR model. We employ the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to rank the contribution and then investigate the structural breakpoints using the Bai and Perron (2003) test. Our empirical results reveal that oil contributes the highest risk to the energy industry and the lowest risk to the Consumer Staples industry. We also find notable discrepancies between industries with regard to number of breakpoints and the break date. In particular, the rankings of the financial, materials, and utilities industries fluctuate dramatically across different sub-samples. In addition, the crude oil risk contribution was commonly larger across all these industries during the 2008 crisis period. Our findings are helpful to investors, market participants, and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Honghai & Du, Donglei & Fang, Libing & Yan, Panpan, 2018. "Risk contribution of crude oil to industry stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:179-199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2018.03.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056017305993
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2018.03.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Qinbin & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2012. "U.S. industry-level returns and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 112-128.
    2. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Dibooglu, Sel & Aleisa, Eisa, 2004. "Relationships among U.S. oil prices and oil industry equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 427-453.
    3. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Ouarda Merrouche, 2013. "Precautionary Hoarding of Liquidity and Interbank Markets: Evidence from the Subprime Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 107-160.
    5. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    6. Moya-Martínez, Pablo & Ferrer-Lapeña, Román & Escribano-Sotos, Francisco, 2014. "Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 280-290.
    7. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on U.S. bond market returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 248-258.
    8. Fang, Chung-Rou & You, Shih-Yi, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on the large emerging countries' stock prices: Evidence from China, India and Russia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 330-338.
    9. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "The impact of oil price shocks on the stock market return and volatility relationship," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 41-54.
    10. Robert F. Engle & Eric Ghysels & Bumjean Sohn, 2013. "Stock Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 776-797, July.
    11. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2011. "Oil price shocks and industry stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 966-974, September.
    12. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
    13. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lee, Bi-Juan & Yang, Chin Wei & Huang, Bwo-Nung, 2012. "Oil price movements and stock markets revisited: A case of sector stock price indexes in the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1284-1300.
    15. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
    16. Salisu, Afees A. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2015. "Modeling oil price–US stock nexus: A VARMA–BEKK–AGARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-12.
    17. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
    18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    19. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Wavelet-based evidence of the impact of oil prices on stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 145-176.
    20. Du, Limin & He, Yanan, 2015. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 455-465.
    21. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    22. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    23. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
    24. Hedi Arouri, Mohamed El & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4528-4539, August.
    25. Bauwens, Luc & Laurent, Sebastien, 2005. "A New Class of Multivariate Skew Densities, With Application to Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 346-354, July.
    26. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    27. Ågren, Martin, 2006. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Transmit to Stock Markets?," Working Paper Series 2006:23, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    28. Evan J. McSweeney & Andrew C. Worthington, 2008. "A comparative analysis of oil as a risk factor in Australian industry stock returns, 1980‐2006," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(2), pages 131-145, June.
    29. Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
    30. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
    31. Girardi, Giulio & Tolga Ergün, A., 2013. "Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3169-3180.
    32. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    33. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    34. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2012. "Oil Prices And Stock Markets In Gcc Countries: Empirical Evidence From Panel Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 242-253, July.
    35. Doidge, Craig & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, René M., 2013. "The U.S. left behind? Financial globalization and the rise of IPOs outside the U.S," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 546-573.
    36. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    37. Zhu, Huiming & Guo, Yawei & You, Wanhai & Xu, Yaqin, 2016. "The heterogeneity dependence between crude oil price changes and industry stock market returns in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 30-41.
    38. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
    39. Malik, Farooq & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368.
    40. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "Quantile dependence of oil price movements and stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 33-49.
    41. Abadie A., 2002. "Bootstrap Tests for Distributional Treatment Effects in Instrumental Variable Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 284-292, March.
    42. Sridhar Gogineni, 2010. "Oil and the Stock Market: An Industry Level Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 995-1010, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Ndako, Umar B., 2019. "A sectoral analysis of asymmetric nexus between oil price and stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-259.
    2. Abuzayed, Bana & Bouri, Elie & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Jalkh, Naji, 2021. "Systemic risk spillover across global and country stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 180-197.
    3. Ying-Ying Shen & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Jun-Chao Ma & Gang-Jin Wang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2022. "Sector connectedness in the Chinese stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 825-852, February.
    4. Vidal-Llana, Xenxo & Uribe, Jorge M. & Guillén, Montserrat, 2023. "European stock market volatility connectedness: The role of country and sector membership," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeş & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "On the Linkage between the Energy Market and Stock Returns: Evidence from Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, April.
    6. Liu, Xiang-dong & Pan, Fei & Cai, Wen-li & Peng, Rui, 2020. "Correlation and risk measurement modeling: A Markov-switching mixed Clayton copula approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    7. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal, 2021. "Risk spillover from crude oil prices to GCC stock market returns: New evidence during the COVID-19 outbreak," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Chan, Kam C. & Chan, Leo H. & Nguyen, Chi M., 2020. "Forecasting oil futures market volatility in a financialized world: Why speculative activities matter," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Swaray, Raymond & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Improving the predictability of the oil–US stock nexus: The role of macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 153-171.
    10. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2019. "Correlation dynamics of crude oil with agricultural commodities: A comparison between energy and food crops," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 453-466.
    11. Yin, Libo & Feng, Jiabao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "It's not that important: The negligible effect of oil market uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 62-84.
    12. Zhenhua Liu & Zhihua Ding & Tao Lv & Jy S. Wu & Wei Qiang, 2019. "Financial factors affecting oil price change and oil-stock interactions: a review and future perspectives," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 207-225, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    2. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    3. Babak Fazelabdolabadi, 2019. "Uncertainty and energy-sector equity returns in Iran: a Bayesian and quasi-Monte Carlo time-varying analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2015. "Modeling oil price–US stock nexus: A VARMA–BEKK–AGARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Sharif, Arshian & Aman, Ameenullah & Suki, Norazah Mohd & Salman, Asma & Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Silvapulle, Param & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin & Fenech, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Nonparametric panel data model for crude oil and stock market prices in net oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 255-267.
    8. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    9. Abid, Ilyes & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission of shocks and contagion from U.S. to MENA equity markets: The role of oil and gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Alaali, Fatema, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: evidence from UK firms," MPRA Paper 78013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Zolfaghari, Mehdi & Ghoddusi, Hamed & Faghihian, Fatemeh, 2020. "Volatility spillovers for energy prices: A diagonal BEKK approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Zaighum, Isma & Aman, Ameenullah & Sharif, Arshian & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Do energy prices interact with global Islamic stocks? Fresh insights from quantile ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    14. Zhu, Huiming & Guo, Yawei & You, Wanhai & Xu, Yaqin, 2016. "The heterogeneity dependence between crude oil price changes and industry stock market returns in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 30-41.
    15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Jammazi, Rania & Ferrer, Román & Jareño, Francisco & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2017. "Time-varying causality between crude oil and stock markets: What can we learn from a multiscale perspective?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 453-483.
    17. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali & Muhammad Naveed & Ifraz Adeel, 2021. "Risk and Return Transmissions From Crude Oil to Latin American Stock Markets During the Crisis: Portfolio Implications," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    18. Moya-Martínez, Pablo & Ferrer-Lapeña, Román & Escribano-Sotos, Francisco, 2014. "Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 280-290.
    19. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock price returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," MPRA Paper 80495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2019. "Separating BRIC using Islamic stocks and crude oil: dynamic conditional correlation and volatility spillover analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 950-969.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil market; Industry stock returns; Risk contribution; ADCC-ΔCoVaR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:179-199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.