Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Euro area and global oil shocks: an empirical model-based analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Lorenzo Forni

    ()
    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Andrea Gerali

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    ()

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We assess the impact of oil shocks on euro-area macroeconomic variables by estimating a new-Keynesian small open economy model with Bayesian methods. Oil price is determined according to supply and demand conditions in the world oil market. We find that the impact of an increase in the price of oil depends upon the underlying sources of variation: when the driver of higher oil prices is an increase in the rest of the world's aggregate demand, both euro-area GDP and CPI inflation increase, whereas negative oil supply shocks and positive worldwide oil-specific demand shocks have stagflationary effects on the euro-area economy. Moreover, the increase in oil prices during the 2004-2008 period did not induce stagflationary effects on the euro-area economy because it was associated with positive aggregate demand shocks in the rest of the world. Similarly, a drop in world aggregate demand helps to explain the recent (2008) simultaneous drop in oil prices, euro-area GDP and inflation - particularly its fuel component.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/temidi/td12/td873_12/en_td873/en_tema_873.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 873.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_873_12

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: oil shocks; DSGE modelling; open-economy macroeconomics; Bayesian inference; euro area;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October.
  3. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Oil and the macroeconomy: a quantitative structural analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 704, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
  5. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2006. "Can Structural Small Open Economy Models Account For The Influence Of Foreign Disturbances?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  7. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October.
  9. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2004. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0391, European Central Bank.
  10. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Monetary Policy Trade-Offs with a Dominant Oil Producer," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 1-32, 02.
  11. Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2007. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," International Finance Discussion Papers 897, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0735, Banco de Espa�a.
  13. Pascal Jacquinot & Mika Kuismanen & Ricardo Mestre & Martin Spitzer, 2009. "An Assessment of the Inflationary Impact of Oil Shocks in the Euro Area," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 49-84.
  14. Christoffel, Kai & Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2008. "The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 0944, European Central Bank.
  15. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  16. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
  17. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," Working Paper Series 0860, European Central Bank.
  18. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
  19. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  20. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 87-112.
  21. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  22. Fabrizio Venditti, 2010. "Down the non-linear road from oil to consumer energy prices: no much asymmetry along the way," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 751, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  23. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Eric Amoo Bondzie & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Gabriel Obed Fosu, 2014. "Oil Price Fluctuations and it Impact on Economic Growth: A Dsge Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 217-242, February.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_873_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.