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Global exchange rate configurations: Do oil shocks matter?

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  • Buetzer, Sascha
  • Habib, Maurizio Michael
  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

Do oil shocks matter for exchange rates? This paper addresses this question based on data on real and nominal exchange rates as well as an exchange market pressure index for 44 advanced and emerging countries. We identify three structural shocks (oil supply, global demand, and oil specific demand) which raise the real oil price and analyse their effect on individual exchange rates. Contrary to the predictions of the theoretical literature, we find no evidence that exchange rates of oil exporters systematically appreciate against those of oil importers after shocks raising the real oil price. However, oil exporters experience significant appreciation pressures following an oil demand shock, which they tend to counter by accumulating foreign exchange reserves. Results for general commodity exporters are similar, showing minor differences compared with oil exporters. JEL Classification: F31, Q43

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1442.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121442

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Keywords: exchange market pressure; exchange rate; global imbalances; Oil; Structural VAR;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Valérie Mignon & Audrey Sallenave, 2014. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Working Papers 2014-01, CEPII research center.
  3. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 621-636.
  4. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "On the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on the Real Exchange Rate - Terms of Trade Nexus : Revisiting Commodity Currencies," Working Papers 2013-40, CEPII research center.
  5. Itir OZER-IMER & Ibrahim OZKAN, 2013. "On the Co-Movements of Exchange Rates," Chapters of Financial Aspects of Recent Trends in the Global Economy book, in: Rajmund Mirdala (ed.), Financial Aspects of Recent Trends in the Global Economy, volume 2, chapter 1, pages 12-37 ASERS Publishing.
  6. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 4264, CESifo Group Munich.

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