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Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Edwards, Sebastian
  • Riera-Crichton, Daniel

Abstract

We analyze the way in which Latin American countries have adjusted to commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks in the 1970–2007 period. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which the active management of international reserves and exchange rates impacted the transmission of international price shocks to real exchange rates. We find that active reserve management not only lowers the short run impact of CTOT shocks significantly, but also affects the long run adjustment of REER, effectively lowering its volatility. We also show that relatively small increases in the average holdings of reserves by Latin American economies (to levels still well below other emerging regions current averages) would provide a policy tool as effective as a fixed exchange rate regime in insulating the economy from CTOT shocks. Reserve management could be an effective alternative to fiscal or currency policies for relatively trade closed countries and economies with relatively poor institutions or high government debt. Finally, we analyze the effects of active use of reserve accumulation aimed at smoothing REERs. The result support the view that “leaning against the wind” is potent, but more effective when intervening to support weak currencies rather than intervening to slow down the pace of real appreciation. The active reserve management reduces substantially REER volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1990-2016

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:8:p:1990-2016

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Terms of trade; The real exchange rate; International reserves; Commodity price shocks; Volatility; Exchange rate regime;

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  1. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers UWEC-2008-11-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2009.
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  12. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Ranciere, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Scholarly Articles 12490419, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Andrés Velasco, 2012. "Macroeconomic Performance During Commodity Price Booms and Busts," NBER Working Papers 18569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
  4. Buetzer, Sascha & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Global exchange rate configurations: Do oil shocks matter?," Working Paper Series 1442, European Central Bank.
  5. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2014. "On the impact of oil price volatility on the real exchange rate–terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-3, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  6. Vincent BODART & Bertrand CANDELON & Jean-François CARPANTIER, 2014. "Real exchange rates, commodity prices and structural factors in developing countries," Working Papers 2014-046, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  7. Titelman, Daniel & Vera, Cecilia & Carvallo, Pablo & Perez Caldentey, Esteban, 2012. "Un Fondo de Reservas Regional para América Latina
    [A Regional Reserve Fund for Latin America]
    ," MPRA Paper 42614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "The Accumulation of Foreign Exchange by Central Banks: Fear of Capital Mobility?," Working Papers 85, Institute of Empirical Economic Research.
  9. Aizenman, Joshua & Dekle, Robert & Lothian, James R., 2012. "Overview of the special issue on “Policy Implications of and Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis”," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1971-1975.
  10. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2013. "Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 18963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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