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Citations for "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?"

by Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W

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  1. Martin Sommer, 2001. "Sentiment Predictable Income and Habits in the Dynamics of Aggregate Consumption," Economics Working Paper Archive 458, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  2. Loría, Eduardo & Brito, L., 2004. "Is the Consumer Confidence Index a Sound Predictor of the Private Demand in the United States?," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-15, Diciembre.
  3. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters," IMF Working Papers 08/169, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Rüdiger Bachmann & Eric R. Sims, 2011. "Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks," NBER Working Papers 17063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2007. "Confidence or competence: Do presidencies matter for households' subjective preferences?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1025-1037, December.
  6. Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2011. "International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1135-1145, November.
  7. Easaw, Joshy & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2008. "The cyclical nature of Consumer Sentiments Indices in the US and UK," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1994-1998, October.
  8. Gabor Vadas & Gergely Kiss, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," Macroeconomics 0512010, EconWPA.
  9. Martin Sommer & Christopher Carroll, 2004. "Epidemiological expectations and consumption dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 92, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Lucia Dunn & Ida Mirzaie, 2004. "Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked To Manufacturing," Working Papers 04-03, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "International Wealth Effects," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 425, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
  13. Enders, Zeno & Kleemann, Michael & Müller, Gernot, 2013. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80009, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  14. Guzman, Giselle C., 2008. "Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns," MPRA Paper 36653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Martin Sommer, 2004. "Habits, Sentiment and Predictable Income in the Dynamics of Aggregate Consumption," Macroeconomics 0408004, EconWPA.
  16. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets—The Role of Economic Sentiments," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 137-157, 02.
  17. GORMUS Sakir & GUNES, Sevcan, 2010. "Consumer Confidence, Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: The Case Of Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
  18. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2006. "Financial expectations, consumption and saving: a microeconomic analysis," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 313-338, August.
  19. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1995. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Discussion Paper 1995-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  20. Christopher D. Carroll & Wendy E. Dunn, 1997. "Unemployment Expectations, Jumping (S,s) Triggers, and Household Balance Sheets," NBER Working Papers 6081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Bob McNabb & Karl Taylor, 2002. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence from Europe," Discussion Papers in Economics 02/3, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  22. Simeon Vosen & Torsten Schmidt, 2011. "Forecasting private consumption: survey‐based indicators vs. Google trends," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 565-578, September.
  23. Stéphane Dées & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "The International Dimension of Confidence Shocks," Economics working papers 2014-05, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  24. Khoon Lek Goh & Richard Downing, 2002. "Modelling New Zealand Consumption Expenditure over the 1990s," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/19, New Zealand Treasury.
  25. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  26. Sydney Ludvigson, 1996. "Consumption and credit: a model of time-varying liquidity constraints," Research Paper 9624, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  27. Thomas A. Garrett & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?," Working Papers 2003-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  28. Dilyara Ibragimova, 2014. "Consumer Expectations Of Russian Populations: Cohort Analysis (1996–2009)," HSE Working papers WP BRP 41/SOC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  29. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Garratt, Dean & Heravi, Saeed M., 2005. "Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 517-532, September.
  30. Guzman, Giselle C., 2008. "Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns," MPRA Paper 36505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. Garrett, Thomas A., 2003. "Aggregated versus disaggregated data in regression analysis: implications for inference," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-65, October.
  32. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1997. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure?: A sentiment index horse race," Research Paper 9708, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  33. Barnes, Michelle L. & Olivei, Giovanni P., 2013. "The Michigan Surveys of Consumers and consumer spending," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  34. Md. Kabir Ahmed Chowdhury & G.M. Abul Kalam Azad, 2010. "Consumer Confidence in Financial Markets," Working Papers id:3265, eSocialSciences.
  35. Weber, Christian E., 2002. "Intertemporal non-separability and "rule of thumb" consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 293-308, March.
  36. repec:fip:fedhep:y:2013:i:qi:p:14-29:n:vol.37no.1 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Thomas A. Garrett, 2002. "Aggregated vs. disaggregated data in regression analysis: implications for inference," Working Papers 2002-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  38. Eric French & Taylor Kelley & An Qi, 2013. "Expected income growth and the Great Recession," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 14-29.
  39. Roos, Michael W.M., 2008. "Willingness to consume and ability to consume," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-402, May.
  40. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Canzian, Giulia, 2011. "The psychology of inflation, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 660-670.
  41. Panagiotis Konstantinou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2011. "Boosting Confidence: Is there a Role for Fiscal Policy?," Discussion Paper Series 2011_03, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Mar 2011.
  42. Lindberg, Sara, 1999. "Consumption and Capital Mobility in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 1999:6, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  43. Diego Nocetti, 2005. "A Model of Mental Effort and Endogenous Estimation Risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(14), pages 1-10.
  44. Frank Westerhoff & Martin Hohnisch, 2010. "Consumer sentiment and countercyclical fiscal policies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 609-618.
  45. Atsuo Utaka, 2003. "Confidence and the real economy - the Japanese case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 337-342.
  46. Li, Dan & Li, Geng, 2014. "Are Household Investors Noise Traders: Evidence from Belief Dispersion and Stock Trading Volume," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  47. Boriss Siliverstovs & Manh Ha Duong, 2006. "On the Role of Stock Market for Real Economic Activity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 599, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  48. Charlotte Christiansen & Jonas Nygaard Eriksen & Stig V. Møller, 2013. "Forecasting US Recessions: The Role of Sentiments," CREATES Research Papers 2013-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  49. Charles Grant & Tuomas Peltonen, 2005. "Housing and Equity Wealth Effects of Italian Households," DNB Working Papers 043, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  50. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2000. "The effects of weather on retail sales," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  51. Côté, Denise & Johnson, Marianne, 1998. "Consumer Attitudes, Uncertainty, and Consumer Spending," Working Papers 98-16, Bank of Canada.
  52. Yash P. Mehra & Elliot W. Martin, 2003. "Why does consumer sentiment predict household spending?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 51-67.
  53. Berg Lennart & Bergström Reinhold, 1996. "Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  54. Pami Dua, 2004. "Analysis of Consumers' Perceptions of Buying Conditions for Houses," Working papers 127, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  55. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," Urban/Regional 0405006, EconWPA.
  56. Kazuo Ogawa, 2007. "Why did Japan's household savings rate fall in the 1990s?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(18), pages 2341-2353.
  57. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  58. Xiaohui Liu & Chang Shu, 2004. "Consumption and stock markets in Asian economies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 483-496.
  59. Carroll, Christopher D. & Otsuka, Misuzu & Slacalek, Jirka, 2006. "How large is the housing wealth effect? A new approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/35, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  60. Johansson, Martin W, 2002. "Reexamining loss aversion in aggregate consumption - Swedish and international evidence," Working Papers 2002:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  61. Easaw, Joshy & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2010. "News and households' subjective macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 469-475, March.
  62. Parigi, Giuseppe & Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1997. "Predicting consumption of Italian households by means of survey indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 197-209, June.
  63. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," NBER Working Papers 15049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Maria W. Otoo, 1999. "Consumer sentiment and the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  65. Luca Zanin, 2010. "The relationship between changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator and real GDP growth: a time-varying coefficient approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 837-846.
  66. Sarah Gelper & Aurelie Lemmens & Christophe Croux, 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-11.
  67. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2011. "Consumer Confidence and Aggregate Consumption Expenditures in the United States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-18, February.
  68. John J. Heim, 2009. "Does Consumer Confidence, As Measured By U. Of Michigan Indices, Affect Demand For Consumer And Investment Goods (Or Just Proxy For Things That Do)?," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0903, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  69. David L. Haugh, 2005. "The Influence Of Consumer Confidence And Stock Prices On The United States Business Cycle, 1953-2003," CAMA Working Papers 2005-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  70. Croushore, Dean, 2005. "Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 435-450, December.
  71. Choy, Keen Meng & Leong, Kenneth & Tay, Anthony S., 2006. "Non-fundamental expectations and economic fluctuations: Evidence from professional forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-460, June.
  72. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2007. "Consumer confidence in Europe: United in diversity," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-194296, Tilburg University.
  73. Ivan Roberts & John Simon, 2001. "What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  74. Vuchelen, Jef, 1995. "Political events and consumer confidence in Belgium," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 563-579, December.
  75. Christopher D Carroll, 2001. "The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations," Economics Working Paper Archive 462, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  76. Piotr Białowolski, 2011. "Forecasting inflation with consumer survey data – application of multi-group confirmatory factor analysis to elimination of the general sentiment factor," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 100, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  77. Henry, O. & Messinis, G. & Olekalns, N., 1999. "Rational Habit Modification: the Role of Credit," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 729, The University of Melbourne.
  78. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Heravi, Saeed M., 2004. "Evaluating consumer sentiments as predictors of UK household consumption behavior: Are they accurate and useful?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 671-681.
  79. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2012. "Forecasting Consumption in Real Time: The Role of Consumer Confidence Surveys," Discussion Papers 12-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  80. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
  81. Jansen, W. Jos & Nahuis, Niek J., 2003. "The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 89-98, April.
  82. Mark Doms & Norman Morin, 2004. "Consumer sentiment, the economy, and the news media," Working Paper Series 2004-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  83. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2005:i:14:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  84. Andreas Jonsson & Staffan Lindén, 2009. "The quest for the best consumer confidence indicator," European Economy - Economic Papers 372, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  85. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  86. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada.
  87. Cheolbeom Park & Pei Fang Lim, 2004. "Excess sensitivity of consumption, liquidity constraints, and mandatory saving," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 771-774.
  88. Li, Shanjun & Linn, Joshua & Spiller, Elisheba, 2010. "Evaluating “Cash-for-Clunkers”: Program Effect on Auto Sales, Jobs, and the Environment," Discussion Papers dp-10-39, Resources For the Future.
  89. Marco Malgarini & Patrizia Margani, 2005. "Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures: a disaggregated analysis," ISAE Working Papers 58, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  90. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper Series 42-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  91. BELTRAN, Helena & DURRE, Alain, 2003. "The determinants of consumer confidence: the case of United States and Belgium," CORE Discussion Papers 2003053, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  92. Angelos Antzoulatos & Simone Peart, 1998. "Import demand under a foreign exchange constraint," Research Paper 9810, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  93. W. Anthony Bryant & Joseph Macri, 2005. "Does sentiment explain consumption?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 97-110, March.
  94. Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 8410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  95. Jonsson, Andreas & Lindén, Staffan, 2009. "The quest for the best consumer confidence indicator," MPRA Paper 25515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  96. Sydney Ludvigson, 1996. "Consumer sentiment and household expenditure: reevaluating the forecasting equations," Research Paper 9636, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  97. Nguyen, Viet Hoang & Claus, Edda, 2013. "Good news, bad news, consumer sentiment and consumption behavior," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 426-438.
  98. Lucia Dunn & Tufan Ekici & Paul J. Lavrakas & Jeffery A. Stec, 2004. "An Index to Track Credit Card Debt and Predict Consumption," Working Papers 04-04, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  99. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
  100. Saito, Makoto & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2003. "Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 1-20, October.
  101. Giancarlo Bruno, 2014. "Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach," Empirica, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 37-52, February.
  102. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2003. "Liquidity constraints, precautionary saving and aggregate consumption: an international comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1151-1173, December.
  103. Yasemin Özerkek & Sadullah Çelik, 2010. "The Link between Government Spending, Consumer Confidence and Consumption Expenditures in Emerging Market Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(4), pages 471-485, December.
  104. Khoon Lek Goh, 2003. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand?," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/22, New Zealand Treasury.
  105. Messinis, George & Henry, Olan & Olekalns, Nilss, 2002. "Rational habit modification in consumption," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 665-678, August.
  106. Marta Lachowska, 2013. "Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 13-197, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  107. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada.
  108. Angelos A. Antzoulatos, 1997. "Non-linear consumption dynamics," Research Paper 9726, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  109. Arindam Mandal & Joseph McCollum, 2013. "Consumer Confidence and the Unemployment Rate in New York State: A Panel Study," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 44(1), pages 3-19.
  110. Grant, Charles & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2008. "Housing and equity wealth effects of Italian households," Working Paper Series 0857, European Central Bank.
  111. Mark Doms & Norman Morin, 2004. "Consumer sentiment, the economy, and the news media," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  112. Dion, David Pascal, 2006. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case," MPRA Paper 911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  113. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," NBER Working Papers 9926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  114. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  115. Aleksejs Melihovs & Svetlana Rusakova, 2005. "Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Development in Latvia Using Business and Consumer Survey Data," Working Papers 2005/04, Latvijas Banka.
  116. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2014. "Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Changes, 1952-1991," NBER Working Papers 20087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  117. Dean Croushore, 2006. "Consumer confidence surveys: can they help us forecast consumer spending in real time?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-9.
  118. Robert G. Murphy, 1997. "Household Debt and Aggregate Consumption Expenditures," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 386, Boston College Department of Economics.