Consumer sentiment and the stock market

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Consumer sentiment and the stock market

Author Info

Maria W. Otoo

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between movements in consumer sentiment and stock prices. At the aggregate level, the two share a strong contemporaneous relationship: an increase in equity values boosts sentiment. However, I examined the nature of the relationship between the two. Does an increase in stock prices raise aggregate sentiment because people are wealthier or because they use movements in stock prices as an indicator of future economic activity and potential labor income growth? Using individual observations from the Michigan survey I found results more consistent with the view that people use movements in equity prices as a leading indicator. Although the findings do not rule out a traditional wealth effect, they do raise some questions about the causal role of wealth in aggregate spending.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-60.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-60

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NEP-ALL-2000-01-31 (All new papers)
NEP-FIN-2000-01-31 (Finance)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Poterba, J.M. & Samwick, A.A., 1996. "Stock Ownership Patterns, Stock Market Fluctuations, and Consumption," Working papers 96-2, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
Other versions:
- James M. Poterba & Andrew A. Samwick, 1996. "Stock Ownership Patterns, Stock Market Fluctuations, and Consumption," NBER Reprints 2027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Maria Ward Otoo, 1997. "The sources of worker anxiety: evidence from the Michigan survey," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
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Other versions:
- Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

W. Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," Macroeconomics 0402029, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- W.Jos Jansen & Ad C.J.Stokman, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-10, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
- W. Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2004. "Foreign direct investment and international business cycle comovement," Working Paper Series 401, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
W.Jos Jansen & Ad C.J.Stokman, 2003. "The Importance of Multinational Companies for Global Economic Linkages," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 99, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- W.Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2003. "The Importance of Multinational Companies for Global Economic Linkages," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-22, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
- W.J. Jansen & A.C.J. Stokman, 2002. "The Importance of Multinational Companies for Global Economic Linkages," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 720, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Ricardo M. Sousa, 2003. "Property of stocks and wealth effects on consumption," NIPE Working Papers 2/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
Karen E. Dynan & Dean M. Maki, 2001. "Does stock market wealth matter for consumption?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Johann Burgstaller, 2002. "Are stock returns a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments?," Economics working papers 2002-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
Annamaria Lusardi & Jonathan Skinner & Steven F. Venti, 2001. "Saving Puzzles and Saving Policies in the United States," JCPR Working Papers 220, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Annamaria Lusardi & Jonathan Skinner & Steven Venti, 2001. "Saving Puzzles and Saving Policies in the United States," NBER Working Papers 8237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- A Lusardi & J Skinner & S Venti, 2001. "Saving puzzles and saving policies in the United States," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 95-115, Spring.
Illing, Gerhard & Klüh, Ulrich, 2004. "Vermögenspreise und Konsum," Discussion Papers in Economics 316, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gerhard Illing & Ulrich Klüh, 2005. "Vermögenspreise und Konsum: Neue Erkenntnisse, amerikanische Erfahrungen und europäische Herausforderungen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Schmitz, Philipp & Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2006. "Individual Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns - What Do We Learn from Warrant Traders?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 06-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
John V. Duca, 2005. "Mutual funds and the evolving long-run effects of stock wealth on U.S. consumption," Working Papers 05-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Duca, John V., 2006. "Mutual funds and the evolving long-run effects of stock wealth on U.S. consumption," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 202-221. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Alvin Tan & Graham Voss, 2000. "Consumption and Wealth," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-09, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
Carol C. Bertaut, 2002. "Equity prices, household wealth, and consumption growth in foreign industrial countries: wealth effects in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 724, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
Lucia Dunn & Ida Mirzaie, 2004. "Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked To Manufacturing," Working Papers 04-03, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Lucia F. Dunn & Ida A. Mirzaie, 2006. "Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked to Manufacturing," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 343-351, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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