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On the Role of Stock Market for Real Economic Activity

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  • Boriss Siliverstovs
  • Manh Ha Duong

Abstract

In this study we have addressed the relationship between the stock market, the measure of real economic activity (represented by the real GDP), the economic sentiment indicator, and real interest rate for the five European countries: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK. We find that even when accounting for expectations, represented by the economic sentiment indicator, the stock market has certain predictive content for the real economic activity. At the same time, the relationship between the economic sentiment indicator and the real activity seems to be more articulated than that between the latter variable and the stock market. We also have shown that the developments in the national stock markets are explained by the common factor shared by all of them. The greater relative importance of the economic sentiment indicator for the real GDP when compared to that of the stock market can be traced to the fact that the real economic activity is still shaped more by the domestic shocks rather than the global ones, i.e. those reflected in the stock market.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.44425.de/dp599.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 599.

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Length: 17 p.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp599

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Keywords: Stock market; real activity; economic sentiment indicator;

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References

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  1. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Schwert, G William, 1990. " Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-57, September.
  4. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  5. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  6. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
  7. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
  9. Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
  10. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Abu Nurudeen, 2009. "Does Stock Market Development Raise Economic Growth? Evidence from Nigeria," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 1(1), pages 015-026, December.

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