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Consumption and stock markets in Asian economies

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  • Xiaohui Liu
  • Chang Shu
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the causal links between stock market performance and consumption for five Asian economies by applying the bound tests of Pesaran et al. and lag augmented VAR of Toda and Yamamoto . We find two-way causal relationships between stock market performance and consumption in the cases of Hong Kong and Taiwan in the long run. The existence of such two-way causal links indicates that stock market performance and consumption mutually affect each other, implying that the previous studies may have overestimated the wealth effect of the stock markets without taking account of the reverse causation from consumption to the stock markets. The short-run effect of the stock market on consumption is more visible than the long-run effect in most of the sample economies, suggesting that changes in consumption directly reflect stock market fluctuations.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0269217042000266435
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 18 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 483-496

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:18:y:2004:i:4:p:483-496

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    Related research

    Keywords: Asian economies; bound tests; consumption; lag-augmented VAR and stock markets;

    References

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    1. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    4. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    6. F. Brayton & P. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    9. Alexander Ludwig & Torsten Sløk, 2002. "The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Priceson Consumption in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/1, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    11. Ogawa, Kazuo & Kitasaka, Shin-ichi & Yamaoka, Hiroshi & Iwata, Yasuharu, 1996. "An empirical re-evaluation of wealth effect in Japanese household behavior," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 423-442, December.
    12. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 29-51.
    13. Sanford J. Grossman & Robert J. Shiller, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 0564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
    15. N.J. Nahuis, 2000. "Are Survey Indicators Useful for Monitoring Consumption Growth: Evidence from European Countries," MEB Series (discontinued) 2000-8, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    16. Karen E. Dynan & Dean M. Maki, 2001. "Does stock market wealth matter for consumption?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2010. "Stock market and aggregate consumption asymmetry: evidence from Malaysia," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 19-29, March.
    2. Salotti, Simone, 2010. "An appraisal of the wealth effect in the US: evidence from pseudo-panel data," MPRA Paper 27351, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2010.
    3. Jayaraman, T.K. & Choong, Chee-Keong, 2009. "Growth and oil price: A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2182-2189, June.

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