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Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets – The Role of Economic Sentiments

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  • Ansgar Belke

    ()

  • Joscha Beckmann
  • Michael Kühl

Abstract

This paper examines the importance of diff erent economic sentiments, e.g. consumer moods, for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) during the transition process. We fi rst analyze the importance of economic confi dence with respect to the CEECs’ fi nancial markets. Since the integration of formerly strongly-regulated markets into global markets can also lead to an increase in the dependence of the CEECs’ domestic market performance on global sentiments, we also investigate the relationship between global economic sentiments and domestic income and share prices. Finally, we test whether the impact of global sentiments and stock prices on domestic variables increases proportionally with the degree of integration. We also account for eff ects stemming from global income. For these purposes, we apply a restricted cointegrating VAR (CVAR) framework based upon a restricted autoregressive model which allows us to distinguish between the long-run and the short-run dynamics. For the long run we fi nd evidence supporting relationships between sentiments, income and share prices in the case of the Czech Republic. Our results for the short run suggest that economic sentiments in general are infl uenced by share prices but also off er some predictive power with respect to the latter. What is more, European sentiments play an important role in particular for the CEECs’ share prices and income. The signifi cance of this link increases with economic integration.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0174.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0174

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Keywords: Cointegration; European integration; fi nancial markets; restricted autoregressive model; sentiments;

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Cited by:
  1. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2012. "The cross-country importance of global sentiments—evidence for smaller EU countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 245-264, September.

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