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News and households' subjective macroeconomic expectations

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  • Easaw, Joshy
  • Ghoshray, Atanu

Abstract

The purpose of the present paper is to provide microfoundations of how households form subjective expectations of the macroeconomy. We focus on the role of perceived news; distinguishing between good and bad news. The paper introduces a testable model where households give unequal importance (or weights) to 'good' and 'bad' news. The model is empirically verified using household survey data compiled for the US. The results indicate clearly that households give no weight to bad news in the long-run.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 469-475

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:32:y:2010:i:1:p:469-475

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

Related research

Keywords: Household expectations formation Perceived 'good' and 'bad' news;

References

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  1. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Heravi, Saeed M., 2004. "Evaluating consumer sentiments as predictors of UK household consumption behavior: Are they accurate and useful?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 671-681.
  2. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  3. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
  4. Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Inattentive Producers," NBER Working Papers 11820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  6. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
  7. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ricardo Reis, 2004. "Inattentive Consumers," NBER Working Papers 10883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Akerlof, George A & Dickens, William T, 1982. "The Economic Consequences of Cognitive Dissonance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 307-19, June.
  10. Begg, David K H & Imperato, Isabella, 2001. "The Rationality of Information Gathering: Monopoly," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(3), pages 237-52, June.
  11. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
  12. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
  13. John G. Matsusaka & Argia M. Sbordone, 1993. "Consumer confidence and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
  15. Eliaz, Kfir & Spiegler, Ran, 2006. "Can anticipatory feelings explain anomalous choices of information sources?," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 87-104, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Buchen, Teresa, 2013. "The News Media and the Expectation Formation of Firms," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80005, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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