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Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures: a disaggregated analysis

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Author Info
Marco Malgarini () (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)
Patrizia Margani () (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

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Abstract

The aim of the paper is to assess the role of the Italian Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) as an autonomous driving force of consumption decisions. We test for the presence of “rule of thumb” consumers as originally proposed by Campbell and Mankiw (1991), using sentiment measures distinguished by working condition of the household. Consumption data are disaggregated according to durability. The role of sentiment results to be stronger for service expenditures. Psychological motives of employees are found to have a particularly significant influence on consumption decisions. Moreover, CSI can not be explained by economic fundamentals alone, capturing also the effects of the political cycle and exceptional circumstances.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY) in its series ISAE Working Papers with number 58.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:58

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Related research
Keywords: Consumer sentiment; Permanent Income hypothesis; excess sensitivity; psychological approach; heterogeneity of individuals;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-1), pages 175-216. [Downloadable!]
  2. Parigi, Giuseppe & Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1997. "Predicting consumption of Italian households by means of survey indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 197-209, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Berg Lennart & Bergström Reinhold, 1996. "Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. C. Alan Garner, 2002. "Consumer confidence after September 11," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
  8. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-79, July.
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  9. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1982. "Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 417-425. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ermini, Luigi, 1989. "Some New Evidence on the Timing of Consumption Decisions and on Their Generating Process," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 643-50, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Marshall, David, 1991. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 397-423, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Flora Fullone & Bianca Maria Martelli, 2008. "Re-thinking the ISAE Consumer Survey Processing Procedure," ISAE Working Papers 92, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  2. Luciana Crosilla, 2006. "The seasonality of ISAE business and consumer surveys: methodological aspects and empirical evidence," ISAE Working Papers 68, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
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