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Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan

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Author Info
Saito, Makoto (Hitotsubashi U)
Shiratsuka, Shigenori (Institute for Monetary and Econ Studies, Bank of Japan)

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Abstract

Exploiting theoretical implications for saving motives under uncertainty proposed by Epstein (1980), this paper empirically examines which motive is more dominant in aggregate household savings in Japan, precautionary savings or savings as waiting options. The former motive is driven by the magnitude of risks, while the latter is promoted by the subsequent resolution of uncertainty. Empirical results indicate that saving behavior since the 1980s is more consistent with precautionary savings; however, estimation results from the behavior during the 1990s offer some evidence in favor of savings as waiting options.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its journal Monetary and Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 1-20
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Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:21:y:2003:i:3:p:1-20

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Personal Finance
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Murata, Keiko, 2003. "Precautionary Savings and Income Uncertainty: Evidence from Japanese Micro Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 21-52, October. [Downloadable!]
  2. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 1999. "Unemployment risk and precautionary wealth: evidence from households' balance sheets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Wendy E. Dunn, 1998. "Unemployment risk, precautionary saving, and durable goods purchase decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Epstein, Larry G, 1980. "Decision Making and the Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kantor, Shawn Everett & Fishback, Price V, 1996. "Precautionary Saving, Insurance, and the Origins of Workers' Compensation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 419-42, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Doug Steigerwald, 1997. "Consumption Adjustment under Changing Income Uncertainty," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 10-96, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Adrian W. Throop, 1992. "Consumer sentiment: its causes and effects," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 35-59. [Downloadable!]
  11. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Mark Kazarosian, 1997. "Precautionary Savings-A Panel Study," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 241-247, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Brugiavini, Agar, 2001. "Risk Pooling, Precautionary Saving and Consumption Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 68(4), pages 757-79, October.
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  14. João Miguel Ejarque, 1997. "Uncertainty and Durable Consumption in the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 97-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  15. Malley, James R & Moutos, Thomas, 1996. "Unemployment and Consumption," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 584-600, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Murata, Keiko, 2003. "Precautionary Savings and Income Uncertainty: Evidence from Japanese Micro Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 21-52, October. [Downloadable!]
  2. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2004. "The Stagnation of Household Consumption in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0599, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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