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Unemployment and Consumption

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  • Malley, James R
  • Moutos, Thomas

Abstract

In this paper, the authors argue that the aggregate unemployment rate is a valuable measure of aggregate income uncertainty. According to the theory of precautionary saving, an increase in income uncertainty would be expected to increase saving. The authors use U.S. quarterly data on the consumption of motor vehicles first to examine whether unemployment has a negative effect on consumption and then to differentiate between the various explanations for this phenomenon. They conclude that the negative relationship between unemployment and consumption is due in large part to precautionary saving motives. Copyright 1996 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Malley, James R & Moutos, Thomas, 1996. "Unemployment and Consumption," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 584-600, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:48:y:1996:i:4:p:584-600
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated: size distortions and partial remedies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 51-76, August.
    2. Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2013. "Private Saving Rates and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Spanish Regional Data," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 323-349.
    3. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    4. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2003. "Liquidity constraints, precautionary saving and aggregate consumption: an international comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1151-1173, December.
    5. Garz, Marcel, 2014. "Consumption, labor income uncertainty, and economic news coverage," MPRA Paper 56076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ruiz, Freddy & Lugilde, Alba, 2019. "Decent work and the effect of job instability on consumption of Colombian households," MPRA Paper 92717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Piero Ferri & Annalisa Cristini & Anna Maria Variato, 2019. "Growth, unemployment and heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 573-593, September.
    8. David Boto-García & Veronica Leoni, 2023. "Distance Traveled in Times of Pandemic: An Endogenous Switching Regression Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(3), pages 571-595, May.
    9. Arns, Jürgen & Bhattacharya, Kaushik, 2005. "Modelling Aggregate Consumption Growth with Time-Varying Parameters," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 15/2005, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    10. Bergman, Michael, 2000. "The 'Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis' and Uncertainty About the Permanence of Fiscal Consolidations," Working Papers 2000:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    11. Claudio Soto G., 2004. "Unemployment and Consumption in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(1), pages 31-50, April.
    12. Piero Ferri & Fabio Tramontana, 2022. "Autonomous demand, multiple equilibria and unemployment dynamics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 209-223, January.
    13. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2018. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1151-1179, December.
    14. Baxter, J. L. & Moosa, I. A., 1996. "The consumption function: A basic needs hypothesis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 85-100, October.
    15. Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2012. "The Consumption-Investment-Unemployment Relationship in Spain: an Analysis with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 42681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Saito, Makoto & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2003. "Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 1-20, October.
    17. Alain Bensoussan & Bong-Gyu Jang & Seyoung Park, 2016. "Unemployment Risks and Optimal Retirement in an Incomplete Market," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1015-1032, August.
    18. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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