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Consumption Adjustment under Changing Income Uncertainty

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Author Info
Hahm, J.-H.
Steigerwald, D.G.

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Abstract

We study the effect of income uncertainty on consumption in a model that includes precautionary saving. In contrast to previous studies, we focus on time-series variation in income uncertainty. Our time-series measure of income uncertainty is constructed from a panel of forecasts. We find evidence of precautionary saving in that increases in income uncertainty are related to increases in aggregate rates of savings.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Australian National University - Department of Economics in its series Papers with number 345.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:aunaec:345

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Postal: THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, RESEARCH SCHOOL of PACIFIC STUDIES, RESEARCH SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, G.P.O. 4, CANBERRA ACT 2601 AUSTRALIA..O. BOX 4 CANBERRA 2601 AUSTRALIA.
Web page: http://economics.anu.edu.au/economics.htm
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Related research
Keywords: INCOME ; UNCERTAINTY ; CONSUMPTION;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

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  1. Saito, Makoto & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2003. "Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 1-20, October. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shulian Zhang, 2005. "Consumption Behaviour Under Institutional Transitions in China," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 189, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  3. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income uncertainty and aggregate consumption," Research series 200511-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  4. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Myung Hoon Yi & Changkyu Choi, 2006. "A GMM test of the precautionary saving hypothesis with nonexpected-utility preferences," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 71-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lorenzo Pozzi, 2007. "Idiosyncratic Labour Income Risk and Aggregate Consumption: an Unobserved Component Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-069/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  7. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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