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Confidence and the real economy - the Japanese case

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  • Atsuo Utaka
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    Abstract

    This paper empirically analyses whether consumer confidence has an effect on the real economy in Japan. This paper uses vector autoregressions including variables which represent consumer confidence. It is shown that in the cases of quarterly and monthly data, consumer confidence has a significant effect on GDP fluctuations, whereas in the case of semiannual data, it has no effect. In other words, consumer confidence has an effect on only short-term economic fluctuations.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840210135205
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 337-342

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:3:p:337-342

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    1. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Scholarly Articles 3353762, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Andrew Scott, 1993. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0119, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    4. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
    5. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
    6. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    7. Charles Delorme & David Kamerschen & Lisa Ford Voeks, 2001. "Consumer confidence and rational expectations in the United States compared with the United Kingdom," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 863-869.
    8. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Grzegorz Andruszkiewicz & Mark Davis & S├ębastien Lleo, 2013. "Taming animal spirits: risk management with behavioural factors," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 145-166, May.
    2. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Khoon Lek Goh, 2003. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand?," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/22, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Roos, Michael W.M., 2008. "Willingness to consume and ability to consume," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-402, May.
    5. GORMUS Sakir & GUNES, Sevcan, 2010. "Consumer Confidence, Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: The Case Of Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
    6. Nguyen, Viet Hoang & Claus, Edda, 2013. "Good news, bad news, consumer sentiment and consumption behavior," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 426-438.

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