Consumer sentiment and household expenditure: reevaluating the forecasting equations
AbstractThis paper reestimates the simple forecasting regressions in Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox (1993) (CFW), which investigate the predictive power of consumer sentiment for consumption growth. Durability in the consumption categories analyzed implies that the error term may be distributed as an MA(1), indicating that ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation is inappropriate when variables lagged one period are used in the forecasting equation. I reestimate the forecasting regressions using nonlinear least squares (NLLS), explicitly accounting for a moving average error structure. In addition, I include two financial indicators as controls in the forecasting regression. These changes produce notable qualitative differences with the results obtained in CFW, and with my own results using OLS. In particular, using NLLS and financial controls, consumer attitudes appear to have little incremental forecasting power for categories of consumption other than motor vehicles.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9636.
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
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- Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994.
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- Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998.
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Economic Policy Review,
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- Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1997. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure?: A sentiment index horse race," Research Paper 9708, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada.
- Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 8410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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