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Import demand under a foreign exchange constraint

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  • Angelos Antzoulatos
  • Simone Peart

Abstract

This paper develops a forward-looking model for import demand under a foreign exchange constraint, in which import growth is an increasing function of contemporaneous and expected future export growth. ; Unlike existing models which stress the role of foreign exchange reserves and contemporaneous export earnings for countries that have limited access to foreign borrowing, this one stresses the importance of the expected time path of future export earnings. The implications of the model are tested and confirmed with data from three East Asian developing countries for which relevant time series are available at quarterly intervals.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9810.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9810

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Keywords: Imports ; Forecasting ; International finance ; Developing countries ; Capital movements;

References

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  1. Jerome Adda & Jonathan Eaton, 1998. "Borrowing iwth Unobserved Liquidity Constraints: Structural Estimation with an Application to Sovereign Debt," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 84, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  2. Leonardo Bartolini & Allan Drazen, 1996. "When Liberal Policies Reflect External Shocks, What Do We Learn?," NBER Working Papers 5727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Faini, Riccardo & Pritchett, Lant & Clavijo, Fernando, 1988. "Import demand in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 122, The World Bank.
  4. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
  5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade," MPRA Paper 13708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Khan, Mohsin S & Knight, Malcolm D, 1988. "Import Compression and Export Performance in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 315-21, May.
  9. Adnan Mazarei, 1995. "Imports Under a Foreign Exchange Constraint," IMF Working Papers 95/97, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Mohsin S. Khan, 1974. "Import and Export Demand in Developing Countries (Demande à l'importation et l'exportation dans les pays en développement) (La demanda de importación y de exportación en los países en des," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(3), pages 678-693, November.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Worrell, DeLisle & Lowe, Shane & Naitram, Simon, 2012. "Growth Forecasts for Foreign Exchange Constrained Economies," MPRA Paper 52169, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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