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Import demand under a foreign exchange constraint

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Author Info
Angelos Antzoulatos
Simone Peart
Abstract

This paper develops a forward-looking model for import demand under a foreign exchange constraint, in which import growth is an increasing function of contemporaneous and expected future export growth. ; Unlike existing models which stress the role of foreign exchange reserves and contemporaneous export earnings for countries that have limited access to foreign borrowing, this one stresses the importance of the expected time path of future export earnings. The implications of the model are tested and confirmed with data from three East Asian developing countries for which relevant time series are available at quarterly intervals.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9810.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9810

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Keywords: Imports Forecasting International finance Developing countries Capital movements

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bartolini, Leonardo & Drazen, Allan, 1997. "When liberal policies reflect external shocks, what do we learn?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 249-273, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Faini, Riccardo & Pritchett, Lant & Clavijo, Fernando, 1988. "Import demand in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 122, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Khan, Mohsin S & Knight, Malcolm D, 1988. "Import Compression and Export Performance in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 315-21, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Reinhart, Carmen, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6974, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Adnan Mazarei, 1995. "Imports Under a Foreign Exchange Constraint: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 95/97, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Adda, Jérôme & Eaton, Jonathan, 1998. "Borrowing with unobserved liquidity constraints structural estimation with an application to sovereign debt," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9806, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
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