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Citations for "Bayesian fan charts for UK inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system"

by Cogley, Timothy W. & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J.

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  1. Luca Benati, 2006. "UK monetary regimes and macroeconomic stylised facts," Bank of England working papers 290, Bank of England.
  2. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Paper Series 34_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," MPRA Paper 21124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 7542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Methods Available to Monetary Policy Makers to Deal with Uncertainty," Macroeconomics 0310002, EconWPA.
  7. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
  8. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Unconventional US Monetary Policy: New Tools Same Channels?," Working Papers 208, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  9. Stefania D'Amico, 2005. "Density selection and combination under model ambiguity: an application to stock returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
  11. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz & Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Term Structure Of Inflation Forecast Uncertainties And Skew Normal Distributions," Discussion Papers in Economics 14/01, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  12. Gary Koop & Lise Tole, 2013. "Forecasting the European carbon market," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 723-741, 06.
  13. Meredith J. Beechey & Par Osterholm, 2007. "The rise and fall of U.S. inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Farooq Akram & Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Joint prediction bands for macroeconomic risk management," Working Paper 2016/7, Norges Bank.
  15. Benati, Luca, 2007. "The ‘Great Moderation’ in the United Kingdom," Working Paper Series 0769, European Central Bank.
  16. Miguel Belmonte & Gary Koop, 2013. "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time-Varying Parameter Regression Models," Working Papers 1302, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  17. Luca Benati, 2004. "Evolving post-World War II UK economic performance," Bank of England working papers 232, Bank of England.
  18. Miguel A. G. Belmonte & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2011. "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models," Working Paper Series 35_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  19. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial indicators and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 977, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  20. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Tim W. Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making," Working Papers 523, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  22. Hansen, Bruce E., 2006. "Interval forecasts and parameter uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 377-398.
  23. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
  24. Luis Uzeda, 2016. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-632, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  25. Dong Jin Lee, 2009. "Testing Parameter Stability in Quantile Models: An Application to the U.S. Inflation Process," Working papers 2009-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  26. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Working Papers 2012_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  27. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2016. "A MIDAS approach to modeling first and second moment dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 315-334.
  28. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
  29. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-39, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  30. Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Soares Esteves, 2008. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: Combining judgements with sample and model information," Working Papers w200821, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  31. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Evolving UK macroeconomic dynamics: a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Bank of England working papers 386, Bank of England.
  32. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial Conditions and Density Forecasts for US Output and Inflation," Working Papers 715, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  33. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2007. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Working Paper Series 0802, European Central Bank.
  34. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  35. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
  36. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
  37. Lahiri, Kajal & Liu, Fushang, 2005. "ARCH models for multi-period forecast uncertainty-a reality check using a panel of density forecasts," MPRA Paper 21693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2012. "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 9118, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal portfolio choice under decision-based model combinations," Working Paper 2014/15, Norges Bank.
  40. repec:rim:rimwps:24-08 is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "On the Evolution of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 24_08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  42. Liu, Li & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2015. "Forecasting excess stock returns with crude oil market data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 316-324.
  43. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2011. "What lies beneath? A time-varying FAVAR model for the UK transmission mechanism," Working Paper Series 1320, European Central Bank.
  44. Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  45. Andrew McKenna & Rhys Bidder, 2014. "Robust Stress Testing," 2014 Meeting Papers 853, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  46. Davide Pettenuzzo & Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2016. "Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic TiltinG," Working Papers 99, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  47. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
  48. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
  49. Harrison, Richard & Taylor, Tim, 2012. "Non-rational expectations and the transmission mechanism," Bank of England working papers 448, Bank of England.
  50. Gargano, Antonio & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 10104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  51. Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
  52. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2010. "Asset Prices, News Shocks and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 8080, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  53. Kateøina Šmídková, 2005. "How Inflation Targeters (Can) Deal with Uncertainty," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(7-8), pages 316-332, July.
  54. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2011. "Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada," Working Papers 1138, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  55. Juan Manuel Julio, . "Implementación, Uso e Interpretación del "Fan Chart"," Borradores de Economia 346, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  56. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility," Working Paper 1218, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  57. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
  58. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Changes in the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from a time-varying factor-augmented VAR," Bank of England working papers 401, Bank of England.
  59. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
  60. Beechey, Meredith, 2004. "Excess Sensitivity and Volatility of Long Interest Rates: The Role of Limited Information in Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 173, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  61. Francois R. Velde, 2004. "Poor hand or poor play? the rise and fall of inflation in the U.S," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 34-51.
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