IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/r/oup/qjecon/v108y1993i4p1135-1145..html
   My bibliography  Save this item

How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as


Cited by:

  1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
  2. Tortorice, Daniel L., 2018. "Equity return predictability, time varying volatility and learning about the permanence of shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 315-343.
  3. Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 2190-2245.
  4. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288.
  5. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2014. "A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices With an Application to Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 10162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Calvet, Laurent E. & Fisher, Adlai J., 2007. "Multifrequency news and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 178-212, October.
  7. Adrian, Tobias, 2009. "Inference, arbitrage, and asset price volatility," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-64, January.
  8. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, February.
  9. Barucci, Emilio & Landi, Leonardo, 1996. "Speculative dynamics with bounded rationality learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 284-300, June.
  10. Cassano, Mark A., 1999. "Learning and mean reversion in asset returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 529-545.
  11. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
  12. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Stock price volatility and equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 249-283, April.
  13. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Learning To Forecast And Cyclical Behavior Of Output And Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
  14. Antonio Zoratto Sanvicente & Renato Teles Delgado, 2010. "Learning Theory and Equity Valuation: an Empirical Analysis," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 8(2), pages 113-139.
  15. Ian Tonks & Andy Snell & George Bulkley, 1996. "Excessive Dispersion of US Stock Prices: A Regression Test of Cross-Sectional Volatility," FMG Discussion Papers dp246, Financial Markets Group.
  16. Snell, Andy & Tonks, Ian & Bulkley, George, 1996. "Excessive stock price dispersion: a regression test of cross-sectional volatility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119165, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  17. Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "High equity premia and crash fears - Rational foundations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(3), pages 693-708, August.
  18. Martin, Ian W.R. & Nagel, Stefan, 2022. "Market efficiency in the age of big data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 154-177.
  19. Calvet, Laurent-Emmanuel & Czellar , Veronika, 2011. "state-observation sampling and the econometrics of learning models," HEC Research Papers Series 947, HEC Paris.
  20. Veronesi, Pietro, 2004. "The Peso problem hypothesis and stock market returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 707-725, January.
  21. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Learning about the interdependence between the macroeconomy and the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 223-242.
  22. Lettau, Martin, 1997. "Explaining the facts with adaptive agents: The case of mutual fund flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1117-1147, June.
  23. Li, Jinfang, 2022. "The sentiment pricing dynamics with short-term and long-term learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  24. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.
  25. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
  26. Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2016. "Do Combination Forecasts Outperform the Historical Average? Economic and Statistical Evidence," MPRA Paper 71589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 629-651, July.
  28. Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 1996. "Learning, regime switches, and equilibrium asset pricing dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 979-1006.
  29. Bernales, Alejandro & Chen, Louisa & Valenzuela, Marcela, 2017. "Learning and forecasts about option returns through the volatility risk premium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 312-330.
  30. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
  31. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2010. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  32. Andrea Gaunersdorfer & Cars Hommes, 2007. "A Nonlinear Structural Model for Volatility Clustering," Springer Books, in: Gilles Teyssière & Alan P. Kirman (ed.), Long Memory in Economics, pages 265-288, Springer.
  33. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Learning Under Ambiguity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(4), pages 1275-1303.
  34. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," CRSP working papers 520, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  35. Bakshi, Gurdip & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2010. "Do subjective expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 462-477, December.
  36. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2015. "Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-82, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  37. Hongye Guo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. ""Superstitious" Investors," NBER Working Papers 25603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Johannes Beutel, 2017. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2352-2408, August.
  39. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
  40. Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2005. "Imperfect Information and Stock Market Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 173-194, May.
  41. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December.
  42. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2011. "Do Mean Reverting based trading strategies outperform Buy and Hold?," Working Papers 1113, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
  43. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  44. Franke, Günter & Lüders, Erik, 2004. "Why Do Asset Prices Not Follow Random Walks?," CoFE Discussion Papers 04/05, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
  45. Malmendier, Ulrike & Pouzo, Demian & Vanasco, Victoria, 2020. "Investor experiences and financial market dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 597-622.
  46. Calvet, Laurent E. & Czellar, Veronika, 2015. "Through the looking glass: Indirect inference via simple equilibria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 343-358.
  47. Guidolin, Massimo, 2006. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: Quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 85-118.
  48. Diks, Cees & Dindo, Pietro, 2008. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1432-1465, May.
  49. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2008. "The market price of risk and the equity premium: A legacy of the Great Depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 454-476, April.
  50. Choi, Jae Hoon & Munro, David, 2022. "Market liquidity and excess volatility: Theory and experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  51. Nonejad, Nima, 2019. "Forecasting aggregate equity return volatility using crude oil price volatility: The role of nonlinearities and asymmetries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  52. Brandt, M.W.Michael W. & Zeng, Qi & Zhang, Lu, 2004. "Equilibrium stock return dynamics under alternative rules of learning about hidden states," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1925-1954, September.
  53. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 223-244, Summer.
  54. Kawakami, Kei, 2016. "Market size matters: A model of excess volatility in large markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 24-45.
  55. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  56. Gurdip Bakshi, 2009. "Du subjectiv expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?," 2009 Meeting Papers 1234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  57. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2003. "Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 717-769, March.
  58. Chakraborty, Avik & Evans, George W., 2008. "Can perpetual learning explain the forward-premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 477-490, April.
  59. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2013. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," NBER Working Papers 19705, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2011. "Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 8340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  61. Paye, Bradley S., 2012. "‘Déjà vol’: Predictive regressions for aggregate stock market volatility using macroeconomic variables," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 527-546.
  62. Head, Allen C. & Smith, Gregor W., 2003. "The CCAPM meets Euro-interest rate persistence, 1960-2000," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 349-366, March.
  63. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2015. "Revisiting Shiller's excess volatility hypothesis," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-33, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  64. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  65. Tong, Chen & Huang, Zhuo & Wang, Tianyi & Zhang, Cong, 2023. "The effects of economic uncertainty on financial volatility: A comprehensive investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 369-389.
  66. Adem Atmaz & Suleyman Basak, 2018. "Belief Dispersion in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1225-1279, June.
  67. Sergey V. Chernenko, 2004. "The information content of forward and futures prices: market expectations and the price of risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 808, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  68. Timmermann, Allan & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 15-27.
  69. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 197-228, February.
  70. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2015. "Revisiting Shiller's excess volatility hypothesis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-33, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  71. Glen Donaldson & Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer, 2003. "Stare down the barrel and center the crosshairs: Targeting the ex ante equity premium," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  72. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2016. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 664-698, March.
  73. Alexander Zimper, 2011. "Do Bayesians Learn Their Way Out of Ambiguity?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 269-285, December.
  74. Adrian, Tobias & Franzoni, Francesco, 2009. "Learning about beta: Time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-556, September.
  75. Neilson, Jed J., 2022. "Investor information gathering and the resolution of uncertainty," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1).
  76. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  77. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakoš, 2015. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications For Consumption and Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1053-1104.
  78. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2018. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 71-127.
  79. Luc Paugam & Olivier Ramond, 2015. "Effect of Impairment-Testing Disclosures on the Cost of Equity Capital," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5-6), pages 583-618, June.
  80. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2022. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  81. Jonathan Dark & Xin Gao & Thijs van der Heijden & Federico Nardari, 2022. "Forecasting variance swap payoffs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2135-2164, December.
  82. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 629-651, July.
  83. Berrada, Tony & Hugonnier, Julien, 2013. "Incomplete information, idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 448-462.
  84. Djeutem Edouard & Nguimkeu Pierre, 2020. "Robust learning in the foreign exchange market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, January.
  85. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2015. "Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-82, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  86. Katsuhiro Oshima, 2019. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Monetary Policy, and Stock Price Volatility," KIER Working Papers 1013, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  87. Michele Vodret & Bence Tóth & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Michael Benzaquen, 2022. "Do fundamentals shape the price response? A critical assessment of linear impact models," Post-Print hal-03797375, HAL.
  88. Marcet, Albert & Adam, Klaus, 2009. "Internal Rationality and Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  89. Anais Maillet, 2015. "Food price volatility and farmers' production decisions under imperfect information," FOODSECURE Technical papers 8, LEI Wageningen UR.
  90. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April.
  91. Bulkley, George & Taylor, Nick, 1996. "A cross-section test of the present value model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 295-306, February.
  92. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Futures Contract Rates as Monetary Policy Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 109-145, June.
  93. Wright, Jonathan H., 2019. "Some observations on forecasting and policy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1186-1192.
  94. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524, January.
  95. Alvaro Sandroni, 1997. "Learning Rare Events," Discussion Papers 1199, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  96. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 2001. "Learning And Excess Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 272-302, April.
  97. Yi-Chieh Wen & Bin Li, 2020. "Lagged country returns and international stock return predictability during business cycle recession periods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(46), pages 5005-5019, October.
  98. Tim W. Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The Market Price of Risk and the Equity Premium," Working Papers 522, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  99. Ole Peters, 2011. "Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 1593-1602.
  100. Lüders, Erik & Franke, Günter, 2005. "Return predictability and stock market crashes in a simple rational expectations model," CoFE Discussion Papers 05/05, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
  101. Michael Johannes & Lars Lochstoer & Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2015. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," 2015 Meeting Papers 647, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  102. Michele Vodret & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence T'oth & Michael Benzaquen, 2021. "Do fundamentals shape the price response? A critical assessment of linear impact models," Papers 2112.04245, arXiv.org.
  103. Adam, K., 2000. "Adaptive Learning and the Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation," Economics Working Papers eco2000/25, European University Institute.
  104. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  105. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2013. "Bubbles, crashes and risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 254-258.
  106. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2010. "A real-time trading rule," MPRA Paper 27148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  107. Carlos Capistr¡N & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 365-396, March.
  108. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  109. Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2005. "Is learning a dimension of risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2605-2632, October.
  110. Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Maria-Dolores Garcia-Artiles & Juan Manuel Martin-Gonzalez, 2002. "A model of speculative behaviour with a strange attractor," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 143-161.
  111. Brennan, Michael & Xia, Yihong, 1997. "Stock Price Volatility, Learning, and the Equity Premium," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3zw2w634, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  112. Bozos, Konstantinos & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2011. "Forecasting the value effect of seasoned equity offering announcements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 418-427, October.
  113. Pietro Veronesi, "undated". "Belief-dependent Utilities, Aversion to State-Uncertainty and Asset Prices,”," CRSP working papers 529, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  114. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-39, January.
  115. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
  116. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2000. "Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns," NBER Working Papers 7699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  117. Nonejad, Nima, 2023. "Conditional out-of-sample predictability of aggregate equity returns and aggregate equity return volatility using economic variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-122.
  118. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2015. "Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 287, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  119. Uppal, Raman & Dumas, Bernard & Kurshev, Alexander, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  120. Francis, Jennifer & LaFond, Ryan & Olsson, Per & Schipper, Katherine, 2003. "Accounting Anomalies and Information Uncertainty," SIFR Research Report Series 13, Institute for Financial Research.
  121. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 365-396, March.
  122. Andrea Gaunersdorfer & Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2001. "Adaptive Beliefs and the volatility of asset prices," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5A.1, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  123. Michele Berardi, 2016. "Endogenous time-varying risk aversion and asset returns," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 581-601, July.
  124. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Estimation and Inference in Threshold Predictive Regression Models with Locally Explosive Regressors," Papers 2305.00860, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
  125. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching, and Stock Market Crashes," Econometrics 9502003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  126. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  127. Torsten Trimborn & Philipp Otte & Simon Cramer & Maximilian Beikirch & Emma Pabich & Martin Frank, 2020. "SABCEMM: A Simulator for Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 707-744, February.
  128. Jonathan Iworiso & Spyridon Vrontos, 2020. "On the directional predictability of equity premium using machine learning techniques," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 449-469, April.
  129. Sandroni, Alvaro, 1998. "Learning, Rare Events, and Recurrent Market Crashes in Frictionless Economies without Intrinsic Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-18, September.
  130. Colm Kearney & Kevin Daly, 1998. "The causes of stock market volatility in Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 597-605.
  131. Jess Benhabib & Chetan Dave, 2014. "Learning, Large Deviations and Rare Events," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 367-382, July.
  132. Mustafa K. Yılmaz & Mine Aksoy & Tankut T. Çelik, 2020. "Market reaction to regulatory policy changes in financial statements filings: evidence from Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 567-605, December.
  133. Woertman, W.H., 2008. "Learning in consumer choice," Other publications TiSEM c467376b-ae4e-49ad-a336-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  134. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2020. "Belief Overreaction and Stock Market Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 27283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  135. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
  136. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2015. "The Structural Stability of a One-Day Risk Premium in View of the Recent Financial Crisis," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(2), pages 136-142.
  137. Thaddeus Neururer & George Papadakis & Edward J. Riedl, 2016. "Tests of investor learning models using earnings innovations and implied volatilities," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 400-437, June.
  138. Chow, William W. & Fung, Michael K., 2008. "Volatility of stock price as predicted by patent data: An MGARCH perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 64-79, January.
  139. Chen, Qi & Francis, Jennifer & Jiang, Wei, 2005. "Investor learning about analyst predictive ability," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-24, February.
  140. Yihui Pan & Tracy Yue Wang & Michael S. Weisbach, 2015. "Learning About CEO Ability and Stock Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(6), pages 1623-1666.
  141. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 579-629, April.
  142. Élise PAYZAN LE NESTOUR, 2010. "Bayesian Learning in UnstableSettings: Experimental Evidence Based on the Bandit Problem," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-28, Swiss Finance Institute.
  143. Franke, Günter & Lüders, Erik, 2006. "Return predictability and stock market crashes in a simple rational expectation models," CoFE Discussion Papers 06/05, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
  144. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2002. "Learning, Asset‐Pricing Tests, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1113-1145, June.
  145. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2015. "Learning to smile: Can rational learning explain predictable dynamics in the implied volatility surface?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-37.
  146. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2011. "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 159-191, July.
  147. Bing Han & Dong Hong & Mitch Warachka, 2009. "Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1035-1046, June.
  148. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
  149. Stefano Cassella & Huseyin Gulen, 2018. "Extrapolation Bias and the Predictability of Stock Returns by Price-Scaled Variables," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4345-4397.
  150. Katsuhiro Oshima, 2021. "Heterogeneous beliefs, monetary policy, and stock price volatility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 79-125, March.
  151. Katsuhiro Oshima, 2019. "Subjective Beliefs, Monetary Policy, and Stock Price Volatility," KIER Working Papers 1012, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  152. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Bayesian model averaging and the conditional volatility process: an application to predicting aggregate equity returns by conditioning on economic variables," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1387-1411, August.
  153. Sadzik, Tomasz & Woolnough, Chris, 2021. "Snowballing private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
  154. Consiglio, Andrea & Russino, Annalisa, 2007. "How does learning affect market liquidity? A simulation analysis of a double-auction financial market with portfolio traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1910-1937, June.
  155. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "A comprehensive empirical analysis of the predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
  156. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2001. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  157. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Understanding the conditional out-of-sample predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  158. Bansal, Ravi & Lundblad, Christian, 2002. "Market efficiency, asset returns, and the size of the risk premium in global equity markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 195-237, August.
  159. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2009. "Exploiting price misalignements," MPRA Paper 27147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  160. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  161. Aydoğan Alti & Sheridan Titman, 2019. "A Dynamic Model of Characteristic-Based Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 25777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  162. Lopomo Beteto Wegner, Danilo, 2015. "Government insurance, information, and asset prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 165-183.
  163. Gandré, Pauline, 2020. "US stock prices and recency-biased learning in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.