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Citations for "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting"

by Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen

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  1. Lanne, Markku, 2007. "The Properties of Market-Based and Survey Forecasts for Different Data Releases," MPRA Paper 3877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Crowe, Christopher & Meade, Ellen E., 2008. "Central bank independence and transparency: Evolution and effectiveness," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 763-777, December.
  3. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  4. Wojciech Olszewski & Alvaro Sandroni, 2008. "Manipulability of Future-Independent Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1437-1466, November.
  5. Kohei Kawamura, 2015. "Confidence and competence in communication," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 78(2), pages 233-259, February.
  6. Bullard, James & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2010. "A Model Of Near-Rational Exuberance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 166-188, April.
  7. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 365-396, 03.
  8. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, 01.
  9. Markku Lanne, 2009. "Properties of Market-Based and Survey Macroeconomic Forecasts for Different Data Releases," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2231-2240.
  10. Guembel, Alexander & Rossetto, Silvia, 2009. "Reputational cheap talk with misunderstanding," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 736-744, November.
  11. Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010. "Uncertainty and currency crises: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 668-681, September.
  12. Nolan Miller & Paul Resnick & Richard Zeckhauser, 2005. "Eliciting Informative Feedback: The Peer-Prediction Method," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(9), pages 1359-1373, September.
  13. Ordoñez, Guillermo L., 2013. "Fragility of reputation and clustering of risk-taking," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), September.
  14. Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
  15. Doherty, Neil A. & Kartasheva, Anastasia V. & Phillips, Richard D., 2012. "Information effect of entry into credit ratings market: The case of insurers' ratings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 308-330.
  16. Schanne, Norbert, 2012. "The formation of experts' expectations on labour markets : do they run with the pack?," IAB Discussion Paper 201225, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  17. Elena Panova, 2009. "Confirmatory News," Cahiers de recherche 0912, CIRPEE.
  18. Jan Christoph Ruelke & Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel, 2011. "Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll," Post-Print hal-00743770, HAL.
  19. Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 130-139.
  20. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Müller, Christoph, 2012. "Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 337-355.
  21. Capistrán, Carlos, 2008. "Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1415-1427, November.
  22. García, Juan Angel & Manzanares, Andrés, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 0836, European Central Bank.
  23. Luis E. Rojas, 2011. "Professional Forecasters: How to Understand and Exploit Them Through a DSGE Model," Borradores de Economia 664, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  24. Thomas P. Gehrig & Torben Lütje & Lukas Menkhoff, 2009. "Bonus Payments and Fund Managers' Behavior: Transatlantic Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 55(3-4), pages 569-594.
  25. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Jesper Rudiger & Adrien Vigier, 2015. "Pundits and Quacks," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1997, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  27. Yoon, Young-Ro, 2015. "Strategic behavior in acquiring and revealing costly private information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 133-148.
  28. Veronica Guerrieri & Peter Kondor, 2012. "Fund Managers, Career Concerns, and Asset Price Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 1986-2017, August.
  29. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2002. "Professional Advice: The Theory of Reputational Cheap Talk," Discussion Papers 02-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  30. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-189.
  31. Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 39, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  32. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Muhamet Yildiz, 2006. "Learning and Disagreement in an Uncertain World," NBER Working Papers 12648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
  34. Rocco Ciciretti & Gerald P. Dwyer & Iftekhar Hasan, 2009. "Investment analysts' forecasts of earnings," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 545-568.
  35. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2013. "A note on forecasting the prices of gold and silver: Asymmetric loss and forecast rationality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 294-301.
  36. Tillmann, Peter, 2011. "Strategic forecasting on the FOMC," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 547-553, September.
  37. Deimen, Inga & Szalay, Dezso, 2015. "Information, authority, and smooth communication in organizations," CEPR Discussion Papers 10969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Manzanares, Andrés & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 836, European Central Bank.
  39. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics.
  40. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  41. Yann Braouezec, 2010. "Committee, Expert Advice, and the Weighted Majority Algorithm: An Application to the Pricing Decision of a Monopolist," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 245-267, March.
  42. Mariano, Beatriz, 2012. "Market power and reputational concerns in the ratings industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1616-1626.
  43. Ambrus, Attila & Lu, Shih En, 2014. "Almost fully revealing cheap talk with imperfectly informed senders," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 174-189.
  44. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2014. "Microfounded Forecasting," Working Papers Series 372, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  45. Deimen, Inga & Szalay, Dezsö, 2014. "Smooth, strategic communication," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100333, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  46. Alessandro Acquisti, 2014. "Inducing Customers to Try New Goods," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(2), pages 131-146, March.
  47. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Bizer, Kilian, 2013. "Anchoring: A valid explanation for biased forecasts when rational predictions are easily accessible and well incentivized?," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 166, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  48. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2015. "Strategic coordination in forecasting – An experimental study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 155-162.
  49. Phillip E. Pfeifer, 2016. "The promise of pick-the-winners contests for producing crowd probability forecasts," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 81(2), pages 255-278, August.
  50. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  51. Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 223-251.
  52. Marinelli, Carlo & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2014. "On the relation between forecast precision and trading profitability of financial analysts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 39-60.
  53. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  54. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Currency forecast errors and carry trades at times of low interest rates: Evidence from survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-19.
  55. Andrew Bauer & Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2003. "Forecast evaluation with cross-sectional data: The Blue Chip Surveys," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 17-31.
  56. Singh, Ravi & Ruiz-Verdú, Pablo, 2014. "Board Independence, CEO Pay, and Camouflaged Compensation," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb140704, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  57. Breuer Christian, 2015. "On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 22-40, February.
  58. Christian Ewerhart, 2014. "Mixed equilibrium in a pure location game: the case of n ≥ 4 firms," ECON - Working Papers 168, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  59. Mokinski, Frieder, 2016. "Using time-stamped survey responses to measure expectations at a daily frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 271-282.
  60. Todd E. Clark & Troy A. Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  61. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
  62. Campbell, Sean D. & Sharpe, Steven A., 2009. "Anchoring Bias in Consensus Forecasts and Its Effect on Market Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(02), pages 369-390, April.
  63. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos, 2013. "Can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 141-151.
  64. Kiryl Khalmetski & Dirk Sliwka, 2017. "Disguising Lies - Image Concerns and Partial Lying in Cheating Games," CESifo Working Paper Series 6347, CESifo Group Munich.
  65. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  66. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Silgoner, Maria & Wörz, Julia, 2016. "Herding behavior of business cycle forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-33.
  67. Chen, Qiwei & Costantini, Mauro & Deschamps, Bruno, 2016. "How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 154-167.
  68. Rudiger, Jesper & Vigier, Adrien, 2013. "Financial Experts, Asset Prices and Reputation," MPRA Paper 51784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  69. Taylor, Curtis R. & Yildirim, Huseyin, 2010. "Public information and electoral bias," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 353-375, January.
  70. F. Pancotto & G. Pignataro & D. Raggi, 2014. "Higher order beliefs and the dynamics of exchange rates," Working Papers wp957, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  71. Bar-Isaac Heski, 2012. "Transparency, Career Concerns, and Incentives for Acquiring Expertise," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, January.
  72. Cao, H. Henry & Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David, 2011. "Taking the road less traveled by: Does conversation eradicate pernicious cascades?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1418-1436, July.
  73. Francesca Pancotto & Giuseppe Pignataro & Davide Raggi, 2015. "Social Learning and Higher Order Beliefs: A Structural Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics," LEM Papers Series 2015/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  74. Sinkey, Michael, 2015. "How do experts update beliefs? Lessons from a non-market environment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 55-63.
  75. Marinovic, Iván & Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter, 2013. "Forecasters’ Objectives and Strategies," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  76. Papastamos, Dimitrios & Matysiak, George & Stevenson, Simon, 2015. "Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-152.
  77. Friesen, Geoffrey & Weller, Paul A., 2006. "Quantifying cognitive biases in analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 333-365, November.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.