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Social protection investments, human capital, and income growth: Simulating the returns to social cash transfers in Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Dietrich, Stephan

    (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University)

  • Malerba, Daniele

    (GDI, University of Manchester)

  • Barrientos, Armando

    (GDI, University of Manchester)

  • Gassmann, Franziska

    (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University)

  • Mohnen, Pierre

    (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University)

  • Tirivayi, Nyasha

    (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University)

  • Kavuma, Susan

    (Makerere University)

  • Matovu, Fred

    (Makerere University)

Abstract

In this paper we assess the short- and mid-term effects of two cash transfer programmes in Uganda in terms of child underweight, school attainment, and the monetary returns to these indirect effects. Using a micro-simulation approach we test how the scale-up of these pilot interventions could affect human capital indicators and income growth. We first use panel data to estimate the links between income, child health, and school attainment. Thereafter we insert the estimates in a micro-simulation model to predict how cash transfer programmes could generate income returns through higher education attainment and compare programmes in terms of their rates of return.

Suggested Citation

  • Dietrich, Stephan & Malerba, Daniele & Barrientos, Armando & Gassmann, Franziska & Mohnen, Pierre & Tirivayi, Nyasha & Kavuma, Susan & Matovu, Fred, 2017. "Social protection investments, human capital, and income growth: Simulating the returns to social cash transfers in Uganda," MERIT Working Papers 2017-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2017029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Glewwe, Paul & Kassouf, Ana Lucia, 2012. "The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 505-517.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pia Rattenhuber & Maria Jouste, 2018. "A role for universal pension? : Simulating universal pensions in Ecuador, Ghana, Tanzania, and South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-23, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Dietrich, Stephan & Malerba, Daniele & Barrientos, Armando & Gassmann, Franziska, 2017. "Rates of return to antipoverty transfers in Uganda," MERIT Working Papers 2017-040, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Maria Jouste & Pia Rattenhuber, 2019. "A Role for Universal Pension? Simulating Universal Pensions in Ecuador, Ghana, Tanzania and South Africa," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 12(1), pages 13-51.
    4. Pia Rattenhuber & Maria Jouste, 2018. "A role for universal pension? Simulating universal pensions in Ecuador, Ghana, Tanzania, and South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 023, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash Transfer; Uganda; Education; Child Health; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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