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Estimation of rates of return on social protection: ex ante microsimulation of social transfers in Cambodia

Author

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  • Andrés Mideros
  • Franziska Gassmann
  • Pierre Mohnen

Abstract

This study estimates the rates of return of non-contributory social transfer programmes in Cambodia using household-level data and going beyond standard cost--efficiency analyses by developing a dynamic microsimulation model. It shows that social protection promotes equitable economic growth by enhancing human capital and fostering economic performance at the micro level. A positive rate of return is achieved after 12 periods and can reach between 12 per cent and 15 per cent after 20 periods. This study shows that microsimulation models can be extended in order to analyse the long-term economic returns on social protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Mideros & Franziska Gassmann & Pierre Mohnen, 2016. "Estimation of rates of return on social protection: ex ante microsimulation of social transfers in Cambodia," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 67-86, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevef:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:67-86
    DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2015.1025815
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francois Bourguignon & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15090, April.
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    1. Andrés Mideros & Franziska Gassmann, 2021. "Fostering social mobility. The case of the Bono de Desarrollo Humano in Ecuador," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 385-404, October.
    2. Cathal O'Donoghue & Gijs Dekkers, 2018. "Increasing the Impact of Dynamic Microsimulation Modelling," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 61-96.
    3. Dietrich, Stephan & Malerba, Daniele & Barrientos, Armando & Gassmann, Franziska & Mohnen, Pierre & Tirivayi, Nyasha & Kavuma, Susan & Matovu, Fred, 2017. "Social protection investments, human capital, and income growth: Simulating the returns to social cash transfers in Uganda," MERIT Working Papers 2017-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Gassmann, Franziska & Mohnen, Pierre & Vinci, Vincenzo, 2016. "Institutional factors and people's preferences in social protection," MERIT Working Papers 2016-003, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Armando Barrientos & Stephan Dietrich & Franziska Gassmann & Daniele Malerba, 2022. "Prioritarian rates of return to antipoverty transfers," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 550-563, April.
    6. Gassmann,Franziska & Gentilini,Ugo & Morais,Julieta & Nunnenmacher,Conrad & Okamura,Yuko & Bordon,Giulio & Valleriani,Giorgia, 2023. "Is the Magic Happening ? A Systematic Literature Review of the Economic Multiplier of Cash Transfers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10529, The World Bank.

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