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Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation


  • Baek, Jungho
  • Koo, Won W.


Since the summer of 2007, U.S. food price has increased dramatically. Given public anxiety over fast-rising food prices in recent years, this paper attempts to analyze the effects of market factors ─ prices of energy and agricultural commodities and exchange rate ─ on U.S. food prices using a co-integration analysis. Results show that the agricultural commodity price and exchange rate play key roles in determining the short- and long-run movement of U.S. food prices. It is also found that in recent years, the energy price has been a significant factor affecting U.S. food prices in the long-run, but has little effect in the short-run. This implies the strong long-run linkage between energy and agricultural markets has emerged through production of commodity-based ethanol in the recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2009. "Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 54248, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:nddaae:54248

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    Cited by:

    1. Nemati, Mehdi, 2016. "Relationship among Energy, Bioenergy, and Agricultural Commodity Prices: Re-Considering Structural Changes," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229793, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Dae-Heum Kwon & Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2012. "A New Look at the Emergence of an Agro-Energy Nexus: A Graphical Causal Approach," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 42-53, December.
    3. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2014. "On the upsurge of U.S. food prices revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 272-276.
    4. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    5. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2010. "Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2517-2525, August.
    6. Razmi, Fatemeh & M., Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The effects of oil price and US economy on Thailand's macroeconomy: The role of monetary transmission mechanism," MPRA Paper 69096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Rizgar Abdlkarim Abdlaziz & Khalid Abdul Rahim & Peter Adamu, 2016. "Oil and Food Prices Co-integration Nexus for Indonesia: A Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 82-87.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugando, Mikel, 2014. "US dollar exchange rate and food price dependence: Implications for portfolio risk management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 72-89.
    9. Irz, Xavier & Niemi, Jyrki & Liu, Xing, 2013. "Determinants of food price inflation in Finland—The role of energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 656-663.
    10. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    11. Razmi, Fatemeh & Mohamed, Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The role of monetary policy in macroeconomic volatility of ASEAN-4 countries against oil price shock over time," MPRA Paper 65714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Radukić, Snežana & Marković, Milan, 2015. "Limitation Of Trade Margins As A Measure Of Food Price Controls: Experience Of Serbia," Economics of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 62(1).
    13. Snežana Radukić & Milan Marković & Milica Radović, 2015. "The Effect of Food Prices on Inflation in the Republic of Serbia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(2), pages 23-36.
    14. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2015. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Macroeconomic Volatility of Association of Southeast Asian Nations-4 Countries against Oil Price Shock over Time," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 731-737.
    15. Irz, Xavier T. & Niemi, Jyrki S. & Xing, Liu, 2011. "Determinants Of Food Price Inflation In Finland," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114460, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
    17. Shih-Wen Hu & Li-Ju Chen & Vey Wang & Meng-Yi Tai & Lee-Jung Lu & Chiu-Yue Lin, 2015. "Energy Policies and Food Prices," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 11(1), pages 47-68, January.

    More about this item


    Agricultural commodity price; Energy price; Exchange rate; Food price inflation; Time-series analysis; Agribusiness;

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