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Quantifying Structural Change in U.S. Agriculture: The Case of Research and Productivity

Listed author(s):
  • James Oehmke
  • David Schimmelpfennig

    ()

Previous work on structural change in agriculture has failed to distinguish long-run trends from structural breaks leading to new trends. We measure structural changes as statistically significant breaks in either stochastic or deterministic time trends, and apply these measures to agricultural productivity and research. Productivity has a break in 1925 accompanying agriculture's early experience with the Great Depression. Research trends shifted in 1930 as the Depression and new technology began to strongly influence efficient farm size and capitalization. After modeling lags between research and productivity impacts in a vector autoregression (VAR), we compare our results to earlier work by developing a procedure to estimate the rate of return to research from the impulse response function of the VAR. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/B:PROD.0000022095.97676.42
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Productivity Analysis.

Volume (Year): 21 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 297-315

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jproda:v:21:y:2004:i:3:p:297-315
DOI: 10.1023/B:PROD.0000022095.97676.42
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/microeconomics/journal/11123/PS2

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  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  2. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters,in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 17-45 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hwang, Jaeyoun & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "Alternative methods of detrending and the power of unit root tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 227-248.
  4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  5. Fernando S. Machado, 1995. "Testing The Induced Innovation Hypothesis Using Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 349-360.
  6. D. Schimmelpfennig & C. Thirtle, 1994. "Cointegration, And Causality: Exploring The Relationship Between Agricultural And Productivity," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 220-231.
  7. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
  8. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 359-368, February.
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