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Quantifying Structural Change in U.S. Agriculture: The Case of Research and Productivity

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  • James Oehmke
  • David Schimmelpfennig

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Abstract

Previous work on structural change in agriculture has failed to distinguish long-run trends from structural breaks leading to new trends. We measure structural changes as statistically significant breaks in either stochastic or deterministic time trends, and apply these measures to agricultural productivity and research. Productivity has a break in 1925 accompanying agriculture's early experience with the Great Depression. Research trends shifted in 1930 as the Depression and new technology began to strongly influence efficient farm size and capitalization. After modeling lags between research and productivity impacts in a vector autoregression (VAR), we compare our results to earlier work by developing a procedure to estimate the rate of return to research from the impulse response function of the VAR. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Suggested Citation

  • James Oehmke & David Schimmelpfennig, 2004. "Quantifying Structural Change in U.S. Agriculture: The Case of Research and Productivity," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 297-315, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jproda:v:21:y:2004:i:3:p:297-315
    DOI: 10.1023/B:PROD.0000022095.97676.42
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters,in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 17-45 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 359-368, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(02), pages 265-275, October.
    2. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2010. "Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(3), pages 303-320, September.
    3. Paul Heisey & Sarah Adelman, 2011. "Research expenditures, technology transfer activity, and university licensing revenue," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 38-60, February.
    4. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas & Adenauer, Marcel, 2007. "Report and Code to Simulate Structural Change," Reports 57468, Wageningen University, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society.
    5. Toole, Andrew A. & King, John L., 2011. "Industry-science connections in agriculture: Do public science collaborations and knowledge flows contribute to firm-level agricultural research productivity?," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-064, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    6. Rada, Nicholas E. & Schimmelpfennig, David E., 2015. "Propellers of Agricultural Productivity in India," Economic Research Report 262202, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Darragh Clancy & A. Kazukauskas & C. Newman & Fiona Thorne, 2009. "An investigation of the level of structural change in the agrifood sector of Ireland, Denmark and the Netherlands," Working Papers 0915, Rural Economy and Development Programme,Teagasc.

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