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Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation

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  • Jungho Baek
  • Won W. Koo

Abstract

Since the summer of 2007, U.S. food price inflation has increased dramatically. Given public anxiety over fast‐rising food prices, this study attempts to analyze the effects of market factors—prices of energy and agricultural commodities and exchange rate—on U.S. food prices using a cointegration analysis. Results show that the agricultural commodity price and exchange rate play the key roles in determining the short‐ and long‐run movement of U.S. food prices. It is also found that in recent years, energy price has been a significant factor affecting U.S. food prices in the long run, but has little effect in the short run. This implies the strong linkage between energy and agricultural markets in the long run over the recent years. Depuis l’été 2007, l’inflation des prix des aliments aux États‐Unis a augmenté considérablement. En raison de l’anxiété que la hausse rapide des prix des aliments suscite au sein de la population, nous avons tenté d’évaluer, à l’aide d’une analyse de co‐intégration, les répercussions de certains facteurs de marché– le prix de l’énergie, le prix des produits agricoles primaires et le taux change – sur les prix des aliments aux États‐Unis. Les résultats ont montré que les prix des produits agricoles primaires et le taux de change jouent un rôle important dans la détermination des tendances à court et à long terme des prix des aliments aux États‐Unis. Nous avons également constaté que, au cours des dernières années, le prix de l’énergie a eu une forte influence sur les prix des aliments aux États‐Unis à long terme, mais peu d’influence à court terme. Cette observation montre l’étroit lien à long terme des marchés de l’énergie et des produits agricoles au cours des dernières années.

Suggested Citation

  • Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2010. "Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(3), pages 303-320, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:58:y:2010:i:3:p:303-320
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2010.01186.x
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2010.01186.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nemati, Mehdi, 2016. "Relationship among Energy, Bioenergy, and Agricultural Commodity Prices: Re-Considering Structural Changes," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229793, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Snežana Radukić & Milan Marković & Milica Radović, 2015. "The Effect of Food Prices on Inflation in the Republic of Serbia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(2), pages 23-36.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Festus Victor Bekun, 2018. "Spillover Dynamics Across Price Inflation and Selected Agricultural Commodity Prices," Working Papers 15-42, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    4. Rizgar Abdlkarim Abdlaziz & Khalid Abdul Rahim & Peter Adamu, 2016. "Oil and Food Prices Co-integration Nexus for Indonesia: A Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 82-87.
    5. Irz, Xavier & Niemi, Jyrki & Liu, Xing, 2013. "Determinants of food price inflation in Finland—The role of energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 656-663.
    6. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
    7. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    8. Dae-Heum Kwon & Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2012. "A New Look at the Emergence of an Agro-Energy Nexus: A Graphical Causal Approach," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 42-53, December.
    9. Shih-Wen Hu & Li-Ju Chen & Vey Wang & Meng-Yi Tai & Lee-Jung Lu & Chiu-Yue Lin, 2015. "Energy Policies and Food Prices," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 11(1), pages 47-68, January.
    10. repec:eco:journ1:2017-02-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Razmi, Fatemeh & Mohamed, Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The role of monetary policy in macroeconomic volatility of ASEAN-4 countries against oil price shock over time," MPRA Paper 65714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2014. "On the upsurge of U.S. food prices revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 272-276.
    13. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugando, Mikel, 2014. "US dollar exchange rate and food price dependence: Implications for portfolio risk management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 72-89.
    14. repec:ags:ijfaec:266426 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2015. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Macroeconomic Volatility of Association of Southeast Asian Nations-4 Countries against Oil Price Shock over Time," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 731-737.
    16. Irz, Xavier T. & Niemi, Jyrki S. & Xing, Liu, 2011. "Determinants Of Food Price Inflation In Finland," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114460, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Radukić, Snežana & Marković, Milan, 2015. "Limitation Of Trade Margins As A Measure Of Food Price Controls: Experience Of Serbia," Economics of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 1-13, March.
    18. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2010. "Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2517-2525, August.
    19. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    20. Razmi, Fatemeh & M., Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The effects of oil price and US economy on Thailand's macroeconomy: The role of monetary transmission mechanism," MPRA Paper 69096, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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