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Is U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Slowing?

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  • Eldon Ball
  • David Schimmelpfennig
  • Sun Ling Wang

Abstract

This paper uses statistics on agricultural productivity compiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service to test the productivity slowdown hypothesis. The indexes of productivity growth span the years 1948 to 2009. In our analysis, we apply econometric techniques that allow for multiple structural breaks at unknown points in time and in various forms. The tests identify a break in trend in 1974 and an intercept shift in 1985. These results point to slower productivity growth in agriculture beginning in 1974. Prior to 1974, productivity grew at an annual rate of 1.71%, but this slowed to 1.56% after 1974. This slower rate of productivity growth persisted after the intercept shift in 1985 but from a higher absolute level of productivity.

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  • Eldon Ball & David Schimmelpfennig & Sun Ling Wang, 2013. "Is U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Slowing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 435-450.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:apecpp:v:35:y:2013:i:3:p:435-450.
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    Cited by:

    1. Trindade, Federico J., 2015. "U.S. Crop Yields Redux: Weather Effects versus Human Inputs," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205271, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Lajos Baráth & Imre Fertő, 2017. "Productivity and Convergence in European Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 228-248, February.
    3. Sabasi, Darlington & Shumway, C. Richard, 2014. "Technical Change, Efficiency, and Total Factor Productivity in U.S. Agriculture," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170225, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Ball, V. Eldon & Butault, Jean-Pierre & Nehring, Richard, 2015. "Real Capital Input in OECD Agriculture: A Multinational Comparison," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1501, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    5. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Lowder, Sarah K. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Willenbockel, Dirk & Robinson, Sherman & Zhu, Tingju & Cenacchi, Nicola & Duns, 2019. "Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 38-53.
    6. Andersen, Matthew A., 2015. "Public investment in U.S. agricultural R&D and the economic benefits," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 38-43.
    7. Francisco J. Goerlich & Ernest Reig & Isidro Cantarino, 2016. "Delimitación y características de las áreas rurales en los municipios y las provincias españolas," Working Papers 1606, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    8. Khan, Farid & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "The Public R&D and Productivity Growth in Australian Broadacre Agriculture: A Cointegration and Causality Approach," 2015 Conference (59th), February 10-13, 2015, Rotorua, New Zealand 204432, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    9. Esposti, Roberto & Materia, Valentina, 2015. "The determinants of the public R&D cofinancing rate An empirical assessment on agricultural research," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211624, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Zheng, Yu & Alexandre, Gohin, 2018. "Agricultural productivity and price volatility in France: a dynamic stochastic partial equilibrium approach," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274354, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Julien, Jacques C. & Bravo-Ureta, Boris E. & Rada, Nicholas E., 2019. "Assessing farm performance by size in Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 153-164.
    12. Virgil Eldon Ball & Carlos San Juan Mesonada & Carlos Sunyer Manteiga & Kennet Ericson & Yu Sheng, 2023. "Technology catch‐up in agriculture among advanced economies," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(1), pages 18-37, January.
    13. V. Eldon Ball & Richard Nehring & Sun Ling Wang, 2016. "Productivity Growth in U.S. Agriculture: 1948-2013," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 30, pages 64-76, Spring.
    14. Ball, V. Eldon & Nehring, Richard & Mesonada, Carlos San Juan & Sheng, Yu, 2016. "Comparisons of Real Values of Capital Input," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235914, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Ball, V.E. & Färe, R. & Grosskopf, S. & Margaritis, D., 2015. "The role of energy productivity in U.S. agriculture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 460-471.
    16. Malacarne, Janet Horsager & Artz, Georgeanne M. & Orazem, Peter, 2017. "Agricultural Production and Technical Change Around the World, 1961-2010," ISU General Staff Papers 201705200700001024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Jin, Yu & Huffman, Wallace E., 2013. "Reduced U.S. funding of public agricultural research and extension risks lowering future agricultural productivity growth prospects," ISU General Staff Papers 201312180800001053, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Dutta, Ritwik & Saghaian, Syed, 2015. "A Chronological Study of Total Factor Productivity and Agricultural Growth in U.S. Agriculture," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196953, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    19. Eldon Ball & David Schimmelpfennig & Sun Ling Wang, 2013. "Is U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Slowing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 435-450.
    20. Wang, Sun Ling & Heisey, Paul & Schimmelpfennig, David & Ball, Eldon, 2015. "Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: Measurement, Trends, and Drivers," Economic Research Report 207954, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    21. Kabata, Tshepelayi, 2015. "Water Pollution and Environmental Performance in US Agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212626, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. Chatterjee, Diti & Dinar, Ariel & González-Rivera, Gloria, 2018. "An empirical knowledge production function of agricultural research and extension: The case of the University of California Cooperative Extension," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 290-297.
    23. Hans Peter Schmidt & Bishnu Hari Pandit & Vegard Martinsen & Gerard Cornelissen & Pellegrino Conte & Claudia I. Kammann, 2015. "Fourfold Increase in Pumpkin Yield in Response to Low-Dosage Root Zone Application of Urine-Enhanced Biochar to a Fertile Tropical Soil," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-19, September.
    24. Wang, Sun Ling & McPhail, Lihong Lu, 2012. "Impacts of Energy Shocks on US Agricultural Productivity Growth and Food Prices —A Structural VAR Analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124892, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    25. V. Eldon Ball & Sean Cahill & Carlos San Juan Mesonada & Richard Nehring & Yu Sheng, 2016. "Comparisons of Capital Input in OECD Agriculture, 1973-2011," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 25-48, August.

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