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Is U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Slowing?

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  • Ball, V. Eldon
  • Schimmelpfennig, David
  • Wang, Sun Ling

Abstract

Tests for a structural break in a time series typically involves partitioning the data into two sub-periods and compare the resulting mean rates of growth. A more formal approach involves estimating the regression parameters for each sub-period and testing theequality of the two sets of parameters. An important limitation of both approaches is that the breakdate must be known a priori. The researcher must either pick an arbitrary breakdate or pick a breakdate based on some known feature of the data. The test results can be "uninformative" because they can miss the true breakdate, or can be ‘misleading’ because the breakdate is endogenous and the test can indicate a break when none in fact exists. This paper tests for slower productivity growth in agriculture using techniques that allow for unknown structural breaks jointly with a possible unit root that can have either or both stochastic and deterministic components.

Suggested Citation

  • Ball, V. Eldon & Schimmelpfennig, David & Wang, Sun Ling, 2012. "Is U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Slowing?," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1225, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we1225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fuglie, Keith, 2013. "U.S. Agricultural Productivity," Proceedings Issues, 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152336, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    2. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
    3. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-558, December.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Costello, Donna M, 1993. "A Cross-Country, Cross-Industry Comparison of Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 207-222, April.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Eldon Ball & David Schimmelpfennig & Sun Ling Wang, 2013. "Is U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Slowing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 435-450.
    9. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    10. V. Eldon Ball & Frank M. Gollop & Alison Kelly-Hawke & Gregory P. Swinand, 1999. "Patterns of State Productivity Growth in the U.S. Farm Sector: Linking State and Aggregate Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 164-179.
    11. Colin Thirtle & Lin Lin Lin & Jim Holding & Lindie Jenkins & Jenifer Piesse, 2004. "Explaining the Decline in UK Agricultural Productivity Growth," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 343-366.
    12. V. Eldon Ball & Jean‐Pierre Butault & Carlos San Juan & Ricardo Mora, 2010. "Productivity and international competitiveness of agriculture in the European Union and the United States," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(6), pages 611-627, November.
    13. Keith O. Fuglie, 2008. "Is a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth contributing to the rise in commodity prices?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 431-441, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Trindade, Federico J., 2015. "U.S. Crop Yields Redux: Weather Effects versus Human Inputs," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205271, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. repec:bla:jageco:v:68:y:2017:i:1:p:228-248 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sabasi, Darlington & Shumway, C. Richard, 2014. "Technical Change, Efficiency, and Total Factor Productivity in U.S. Agriculture," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170225, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. San Juan Mesonada, Carlos & Ball, V. Eldon & Butault, Jean-Pierre & Nehring, Richard, 2015. "Real Capital Input in OECD Agriculture: A Multinational Comparison," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1501, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    5. Andersen, Matthew A., 2015. "Public investment in U.S. agricultural R&D and the economic benefits," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 38-43.
    6. Francisco J. Goerlich & Ernest Reig & Isidro Cantarino, 2016. "Delimitación y características de las áreas rurales en los municipios y las provincias españolas," Working Papers 1606, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    7. Khan, Farid & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "The Public R&D and Productivity Growth in Australian Broadacre Agriculture: A Cointegration and Causality Approach," 2015 Conference (59th), February 10-13, 2015, Rotorua, New Zealand 204432, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    8. Esposti, Roberto & Materia, Valentina, 2015. "The determinants of the public R&D cofinancing rate An empirical assessment on agricultural research," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211624, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. V. Eldon Ball & Richard Nehring & Sun Ling Wang, 2016. "Productivity Growth in U.S. Agriculture: 1948-2013," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 30, pages 64-76, Spring.
    10. Ball, V. Eldon & Nehring, Richard & Mesonada, Carlos San Juan & Sheng, Yu, 2016. "Comparisons of Real Values of Capital Input," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235914, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Ball, V. Eldon & Färe, R. & Grosskopf, S. & Margaritis, D., 2014. "The role of energy productivity in the U.S. agriculture," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1424, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    12. Malacarne, Janet Horsager & Artz, Georgeanne M. & Orazem, Peter, 2017. "Agricultural Production and Technical Change Around the World, 1961-2010," ISU General Staff Papers 201705200700001024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Jin, Yu & Huffman, Wallace E., 2013. "Reduced U.S. Funding of Public Agricultural Research and Extension Risks Lowering Future Agricultural Productivity Growth Prospects," Staff General Research Papers Archive 36796, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Lajos Baráth & Imre Fertő, 2017. "Productivity and Convergence in European Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 228-248, February.
    15. Dutta, Ritwik & Saghaian, Syed, 2015. "A Chronological Study of Total Factor Productivity and Agricultural Growth in U.S. Agriculture," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196953, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Eldon Ball & David Schimmelpfennig & Sun Ling Wang, 2013. "Is U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Slowing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 435-450.
    17. Wang, Sun Ling & Heisey, Paul & Schimmelpfennig, David & Ball, Eldon, 2015. "Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: Measurement, Trends, and Drivers," Economic Research Report 207954, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    18. Kabata, Tshepelayi, 2015. "Water Pollution and Environmental Performance in US Agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212626, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Hans Peter Schmidt & Bishnu Hari Pandit & Vegard Martinsen & Gerard Cornelissen & Pellegrino Conte & Claudia I. Kammann, 2015. "Fourfold Increase in Pumpkin Yield in Response to Low-Dosage Root Zone Application of Urine-Enhanced Biochar to a Fertile Tropical Soil," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 1-19, September.
    20. Wang, Sun Ling & McPhail, Lihong Lu, 2012. "Impacts of Energy Shocks on US Agricultural Productivity Growth and Food Prices —A Structural VAR Analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124892, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Ball, V.E. & Färe, R. & Grosskopf, S. & Margaritis, D., 2015. "The role of energy productivity in U.S. agriculture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 460-471.
    22. V. Eldon Ball & Sean Cahill & Carlos San Juan Mesonada & Richard Nehring & Yu Sheng, 2016. "Comparisons of Capital Input in OECD Agriculture, 1973-2011," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 25-48, August.

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