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Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking

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Cited by:

  1. Daniel Benjamin & David R Mandel & Jonathan Kimmelman, 2017. "Can cancer researchers accurately judge whether preclinical reports will reproduce?," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, June.
  2. Veronica Rappoport & Enrichetta Ravina & Daniel Paravisini, 2010. "Risk Aversion and Wealth: Evidence from Person-to-Person Lending Portfolios," 2010 Meeting Papers 664, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Aurélien Baillon & Yoram Halevy & Chen Li, 2022. "Experimental elicitation of ambiguity attitude using the random incentive system," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(3), pages 1002-1023, June.
  4. Hojun Sung & Brian M. Mills, 2018. "Estimation of game-level attendance in major league soccer: Outcome uncertainty and absolute quality considerations," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 519-532, December.
  5. Herrera-Araujo, Daniel & Rheinberger, Christoph M. & Hammitt, James K., 2022. "Valuing non-marginal changes in mortality and morbidity risk," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  6. Asrilhant, Boris & Dyson, Robert G. & Meadows, Maureen, 2007. "On the strategic project management process in the UK upstream oil and gas sector," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 89-103, February.
  7. Daniel Fonseca Costa & Francisval Carvalho & Bruno César Moreira & José Willer Prado, 2017. "Bibliometric analysis on the association between behavioral finance and decision making with cognitive biases such as overconfidence, anchoring effect and confirmation bias," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 1775-1799, June.
  8. Holden, Stein, 2014. "Explaining anomalies in intertemporal choice: A mental zooming theory," CLTS Working Papers 2/14, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 10 Oct 2019.
  9. Michael Becker‐Peth & Kai Hoberg & Margarita Protopappa‐Sieke, 2020. "Multiperiod Inventory Management with Budget Cycles: Rational and Behavioral Decision‐Making," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(3), pages 643-663, March.
  10. Luigi Guiso, 2015. "A Test of Narrow Framing and its Origin," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(1), pages 61-100, March.
  11. Wunhong Su & Chunlin Wang & Zhong‐qin Su, 2024. "Association between foreign background of executives and firm goodwill impairment risk," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(1), pages 223-250, January.
  12. Carpenter, Jeffrey P. & Benscheidt, Kevin, 2019. "Advanced Counter-Biasing," IZA Discussion Papers 12253, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  13. François Degeorge & François Derrien & Kent L. Womack, 2004. "Quid Pro Quo in IPOs: Why Book-building is Dominating Auctions," Working Papers 2004.150, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  14. Arnoud W.A. Boot & Anjan V. Thakor, 2003. "Disagreement and Flexibility: A Theory of Optimal Security Issuance and Capital Structure," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-001/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  15. Koellinger, Philipp & Minniti, Maria & Schade, Christian, 2007. ""I think I can, I think I can": Overconfidence and entrepreneurial behavior," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 502-527, August.
  16. Michele Dell'Era & Luis Santos-Pinto, 2011. "Entrepreneurial Overconfidence, Self-Financing and Capital Market Efficiency," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 11.06, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie, revised Nov 2012.
  17. Ron Kaniel & Cade Massey & David T. Robinson, 2010. "The Importance of Being an Optimist: Evidence from Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 16328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Stevo Pavićević & Thomas Keil, 2021. "The role of procedural rationality in debiasing acquisition decisions of overconfident CEOs," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(9), pages 1696-1715, September.
  19. Shane, Scott & Delmar, Frederic, 2004. "Planning for the market: business planning before marketing and the continuation of organizing efforts," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 767-785, November.
  20. Meissner, Philip & Brands, Christian & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 244-253.
  21. Sandro Fabbro & Marco Dean, 2012. "More realistic national infrastructure strategies to connect regions with the global networks: the Italian case," ERSA conference papers ersa12p392, European Regional Science Association.
  22. Botond Kőszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2006. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1133-1165.
  23. Laura Rienda & Enrique Claver & Diego Quer & Rosario Andreu, 2019. "Family businesses from emerging markets and choice of entry mode abroad: insights from Indian firms," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(1), pages 6-30, February.
  24. James Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte Madrian, 2008. "The Flypaper Effect in Individual Investor Asset Allocation," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2560, Yale School of Management.
  25. Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Does binding or feedback influence myopic loss aversion : an experimental analysis," Papers 03-20, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  26. Sven Tengstam, 2014. "Disability And Marginal Utility Of Income: Evidence From Hypothetical Choices," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 268-282, March.
  27. Nabanita Datta Gupta & Anders Poulsen & Marie Claire Villeval, 2013. "Gender Matching And Competitiveness: Experimental Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 816-835, January.
  28. Erik Stam & Roy Thurik & Peter van der Zwan, 2010. "Entrepreneurial exit in real and imagined markets," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(4), pages 1109-1139, August.
  29. Johannes Abeler & Felix Marklein, 2017. "Fungibility, Labels, and Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 99-127.
  30. Uri Gneezy & Jan Potters, 1997. "An Experiment on Risk Taking and Evaluation Periods," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 631-645.
  31. Laura Schechter, 2007. "Risk aversion and expected-utility theory: A calibration exercise," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 67-76, August.
  32. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2008. "Financial Literacy and Portfolio Diversification," EIEF Working Papers Series 0812, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Oct 2008.
  33. Schweizer, Roger & Vahlne, Jan-Erik, 2022. "Non-linear internationalization and the Uppsala model – On the importance of individuals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 583-592.
  34. Gilboa, Itzhak & Rouziou, Maria & Sibony, Olivier, 2018. "Decision theory made relevant: Between the software and the shrink," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 240-250.
  35. Arturs Kalnins, 2006. "Markets: The U.S. Lodging Industry," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 203-218, Fall.
  36. Christopher D. Ittner & Jeremy Michels, 2017. "Risk-based forecasting and planning and management earnings forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1005-1047, September.
  37. Sheng-Hsun Hsu & Cheng-Fu Hsiao & Sang-Bing Tsai, 2018. "Constructing a consumption model of fine dining from the perspective of behavioral economics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, April.
  38. Michael L. DeKay & Dan R. Schley & Seth A. Miller & Breann M. Erford & Jonghun Sun & Michael N. Karim & Mandy B. Lanyon, 2016. "The persistence of common-ratio effects in multiple-play decisions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(4), pages 361-379, July.
  39. T. K. Das & Bing-Sheng Teng, 1998. "Time and Entrepreneurial Risk Behavior," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 22(2), pages 69-88, January.
  40. Madi, Riski Amalia & Mutia, Hamrini & Wati, Enny & , sujono, 2021. "The Role Of Internal Financing In Mediating The Effect Of Managerial Overconfidence And Corporate Governance Towards Investment Efficiency," SocArXiv x7q6c, Center for Open Science.
  41. Malmendier, Ulrike & Tate, Geoffrey, 2008. "Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 20-43, July.
  42. Kumar, Alok, 2007. "Do the diversification choices of individual investors influence stock returns?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 362-390, November.
  43. Bar-Gill Oren, 2005. "Pricing Legal Options: A Behavioral Perspective," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 204-240, September.
  44. Michael L. DeKay, 2011. "Are Medical Outcomes Fungible? A Survey of Voters, Medical Administrators, and Physicians," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(2), pages 338-353, March.
  45. Zellweger, Thomas & Sieger, Philipp & Halter, Frank, 2011. "Should I stay or should I go? Career choice intentions of students with family business background," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 521-536, September.
  46. Stefan Graf & Jochen Ruß & Stefan Schelling, 2019. "As you like it: Explaining the popularity of life‐cycle funds with multi cumulative prospect theory," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 221-238, July.
  47. Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2005. "Profitable Investments or Dissipated Cash?: Evidence on the Investment-Cash Flow Relationship From Oil and Gas Lease Bidding," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2063, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  48. Baljit Sidhu & Hwee Cheng Tan, 2011. "The Performance of Equity Analysts During the Global Financial Crisis," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 21(1), pages 32-43, March.
  49. Koch, Alexander K. & Nafziger, Julia, 2016. "Goals and bracketing under mental accounting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 305-351.
  50. Amit, Raphael & MacCrimmon, Kenneth R. & Zietsma, Charlene & Oesch, John M., 2001. "Does money matter?: Wealth attainment as the motive for initiating growth-oriented technology ventures," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 119-143, March.
  51. Benscheidt, Kevin & Carpenter, Jeffrey, 2020. "Advanced counter-biasing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 1-18.
  52. Michele Dell'Era & Luca David Opromolla & Luís Santos‐Pinto, 2023. "Can optimism solve the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 139-169, January.
  53. Azzi, Sarah & Bird, Ron, 2005. "Prophets during boom and gloom downunder," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-367, February.
  54. Philipp Köllinger & Maria Minniti & Christian Schade, 2005. "Entrepreneurial Overconfidence: Evidence from a C.A.R.T. Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 465, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  55. Rene Schwaiger & Laura Hueber, 2021. "Do MTurkers Exhibit Myopic Loss Aversion?," Working Papers 2021-12, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
  56. Stefan Schiller, 2017. "The Quest for Rationality: Chief Financial Officers’ and Accounting Master’s Students’ Perception of Economic Rationality," SAGE Open, , vol. 7(2), pages 21582440177, April.
  57. Eric Johnson & Suzanne Shu & Benedict Dellaert & Craig Fox & Daniel Goldstein & Gerald Häubl & Richard Larrick & John Payne & Ellen Peters & David Schkade & Brian Wansink & Elke Weber, 2012. "Beyond nudges: Tools of a choice architecture," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 487-504, June.
  58. Zeynep Müge Güzel & Aysegul Ozsomer, 2022. "Cleansing the doors of perception: Perceptual inaccuracy in marketing relationships," AMS Review, Springer;Academy of Marketing Science, vol. 12(3), pages 216-237, December.
  59. Love Ekenberg & Magnus Boman & Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer, 2001. "General risk constraints," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 31-47, January.
  60. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
  61. Etienne Theising & Dominik Wied & Daniel Ziggel, 2021. "Reference Class Selection in Similarity-Based Forecasting of Sales Growth," Papers 2107.11133, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
  62. Aurélien Baillon & Yoram Halevy & Chen Li, 2022. "Randomize at Your Own Risk: On the Observability of Ambiguity Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1085-1107, May.
  63. Frank Hartmann & Sergeja Slapničar, 2015. "An experimental study of the effects of negative, capped and deferred bonuses on risk taking in a multi-period setting," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 19(4), pages 875-896, November.
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  65. Elie Matta & Jean McGuire, 2008. "Too Risky to Hold? The Effect of Downside Risk, Accumulated Equity Wealth, and Firm Performance on CEO Equity Reduction," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 567-580, August.
  66. Yan Li & David Ahlstrom, 2020. "Risk-taking in entrepreneurial decision-making: A dynamic model of venture decision," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 899-933, September.
  67. John T. Harvey, 2010. "Modeling financial crises: a schematic approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 61-82, October.
  68. Elizabeth Boyle & Zur Shapira, 2012. "The Liability of Leading: Battling Aspiration and Survival Goals in the Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 1100-1113, August.
  69. Li, Shuying & Garces, Edwin & Daim, Tugrul, 2019. "Technology forecasting by analogy-based on social network analysis: The case of autonomous vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  70. Hussinger, Katrin & Dick, Johannes M.H. & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2018. "Ownership concentration and innovativeness of corporate ventures," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 527-541.
  71. Triebs, Thomas & Tumlinson, Justin, 2014. "Learning Capitalism The Hard Way: Evidence From Germany's Reunification," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100457, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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  73. Hatime Kamilcelebi, 2019. "Framing Effect and Decision-Making in the Market: A Research on Profit-Seeking and Religiousness in Turkey," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(7), pages 417-425, July.
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  75. Siebert, Johannes Ulrich & Kunz, Reinhard E. & Rolf, Philipp, 2021. "Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(1), pages 264-282.
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  77. Cindy Cifuentes Gómez & Siervo Tulio Delgado Ruiz & Jorge Iván González, 2021. "El comportamiento económico desde la perspectiva biológica y psicológica," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 40(72), pages 17-43, July.
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  420. McCown, R.L. & Carberry, P.S. & Dalgliesh, N.P. & Foale, M.A. & Hochman, Z., 2012. "Farmers use intuition to reinvent analytic decision support for managing seasonal climatic variability," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 33-45.
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  430. Zonglong Li & Wenyi Zhang & Yanhui Zhou & Derong Kang & Biao Feng & Qing Zeng & Lingling Xu & Minqiang Zhang, 2022. "College Students’ Entrepreneurial Intention and Alertness in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-14, June.
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  439. Alex S. L. Tse & Harry Zheng, 2023. "Speculative trading, prospect theory and transaction costs," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 49-96, January.
  440. Dan Lovallo & Olivier Sibony, 2018. "Broadening the Frame: How Behavioral Strategy Redefines Strategic Decisions," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 658-667, December.
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  442. Robin L. Dillon & Catherine H. Tinsley, 2008. "How Near-Misses Influence Decision Making Under Risk: A Missed Opportunity for Learning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(8), pages 1425-1440, August.
  443. Philipp Koellinger & Theresa Treffers, 2015. "Joy Leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Countermeasure," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
  444. Moore, Don A., 2007. "Not so above average after all: When people believe they are worse than average and its implications for theories of bias in social comparison," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 42-58, January.
  445. Rogers, Todd & Aida, Masa, 2013. "Vote Self-Prediction Hardly Predicts Who Will Vote, and Is (Misleadingly) Unbiased," Working Paper Series rwp13-010, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  446. Artinger, Sabrina & Schade, Christian, 2013. "Girls will be Girls: An Experimental Study on Female Entrepreneurship," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 146511, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  447. Schwaiger, Rene & Hueber, Laura, 2021. "Do MTurkers exhibit myopic loss aversion?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
  448. Monika Bolek & Rafal Wolski, 2019. "Rationality of more and less experienced groups of finance professionals. Example of Poland," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912031, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
  449. Qiang Lu & Sridhar Moorthy, 2007. "Coupons Versus Rebates," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(1), pages 67-82, 01-02.
  450. Geoffrey P. Martin & Robert M. Wiseman & Luis R. Gomez-Mejia, 2016. "Going short-term or long-term? CEO stock options and temporal orientation in the presence of slack," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(12), pages 2463-2480, December.
  451. Ramzi Suleiman, 2017. "Economic Harmony: An Epistemic Theory of Economic Interactions," Games, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, January.
  452. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
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  454. Sendil K. Ethiraj & Daniel Levinthal, 2009. "Hoping for A to Z While Rewarding Only A: Complex Organizations and Multiple Goals," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 4-21, February.
  455. Daniel Gottlieb & Kent Smetters, 2012. "Narrow Framing and Life Insurance," NBER Working Papers 18601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  458. Lorko, Matej & Servátka, Maroš & Zhang, Le, 2019. "How to Improve the Accuracy of Project Schedules? The Effect of Project Specification and Historical Information on Duration Estimates," MPRA Paper 95585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  459. Dew, Nicholas & Read, Stuart & Sarasvathy, Saras D. & Wiltbank, Robert, 2008. "Outlines of a behavioral theory of the entrepreneurial firm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 37-59, April.
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