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Entrepreneurial Overconfidence: Evidence from a C.A.R.T. Approach

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  • Philipp Köllinger
  • Maria Minniti
  • Christian Schade

Abstract

We use a sample of 18 countries to study what variables have a significant impact on an individual's decision to start a new business and classification and regression trees for an accurate interpretation of the data. Our results support existing literature suggesting the existence of strong country effects. In addition, we find strong evidence that perceptual variables, such as one's belief about her own skills and ability and about the risk involved in the venture, have a crucial impact on new business creation across all countries in our sample. Our findings are consistent with the idea that entrepreneurs evaluate their businesses by taking an "inside view" of their situation, overestimate their likelihood of success, and, as a result, rely significantly on perceptions rather than on objective expectations of success.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.42837.de/dp465.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 465.

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Length: 26, 3 p.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp465

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Keywords: CARTs; Entrepreneurship; Overconfidence; Self-employment;

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  1. Holtz-Eakin, D. & Joulfaian, D. & Rosen, H.S., 1992. "Entrepreneurial Decisions and Liquidity Constraints," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center 129, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  2. Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-27, August.
  3. Baldwin,John R. & Gorecki,Paul With contributions by-Name:Caves,Richard E., 1998. "The Dynamics of Industrial Competition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633574.
  4. Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Earnings, Independence or Unemployment: Why Become Self-Employed?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 253-66, May.
  5. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
  6. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 8876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Otani, Kiyoshi, 1996. "A Human Capital Approach to Entrepreneurial Capacity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(250), pages 273-89, May.
  8. Elke U. Weber & Richard A. Milliman, 1997. "Perceived Risk Attitudes: Relating Risk Perception to Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 123-144, February.
  9. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "Pattenrs Of Firm Entry And Exit In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Papers, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics 1-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  10. Blanchflower, D.G. & Oswald, A., 1991. "What Makes an Entrepreneur?," Economics Series Working Papers 99125, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
  12. Barton H. Hamilton, 2000. "Does Entrepreneurship Pay? An Empirical Analysis of the Returns to Self-Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 604-631, June.
  13. Bates, Timothy, 1990. "Entrepreneur Human Capital Inputs and Small Business Longevity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 551-59, November.
  14. Busenitz, Lowell W. & Barney, Jay B., 1997. "Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-30, January.
  15. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Joulfaian, David & Rosen, Harvey S, 1994. "Sticking It Out: Entrepreneurial Survival and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 53-75, February.
  16. Baumol, William J, 1990. "Entrepreneurship: Productive, Unproductive, and Destructive," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 893-921, October.
  17. Iyigun, Murat F & Owen, Ann L, 1998. "Risk, Entrepreneurship, and Human-Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 454-57, May.
  18. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
  19. Cooper, Arnold C. & Woo, Carolyn Y. & Dunkelberg, William C., 1988. "Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 97-108.
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