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Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts

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Author Info
Louis K. C. Chan
Jason Karceski
Josef Lakonishok
Abstract

Analysts' earnings forecasts are influenced by their desire to win investment banking clients. We hypothesize that the equity bull market of the 1990s, along with the boom in investment banking business, exacerbated analysts' conflict of interest and their incentives to adjust strategically forecasts to avoid earnings disappointments. We document shifts in the distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non-negative surprises. Further confirmation is based on subsamples where conflicts of interest are more pronounced, including growth stocks and stocks with consecutive non-negative surprises; however shifts are less notable in international markets.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9544.

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Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9544

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G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-86.
  2. Rafael La Porta & Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 1995. "Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 5311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Degeorge, François & Patel, U & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1998. "Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds," CEPR Discussion Papers 1790, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Krigman, Laurie & Shaw, Wayne H. & Womack, Kent L., 2001. "Why do firms switch underwriters?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 245-284, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Busse, Jeffrey A. & Clifton Green, T., 2002. "Market efficiency in real time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 415-437, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Fried, Dov & Givoly, Dan, 1982. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : A better surrogate for market expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 85-107, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Taylor, Svetlana M., 2007. "Ownership Structure and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: UK Evidence," Cardiff Accounting and Finance Working Papers A2007/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Accounting and Finance Section. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ljungqvist, Alexander P & Marston, Felicia & Wilhelm Jr, William J, 2003. "Competing for Securities Underwriting Mandates: Banking Relationships and Analyst Recommendations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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