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Farmers use intuition to reinvent analytic decision support for managing seasonal climatic variability

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Author Info

  • McCown, R.L.
  • Carberry, P.S.
  • Dalgliesh, N.P.
  • Foale, M.A.
  • Hochman, Z.
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    Abstract

    The FARMSCAPE Information System emerged in a long-running research program aimed at making simulation models useful to Australian farmers in managing climatic variability. This paper is about how well it has worked. This is reported in relation to two standards: (1) the value to thinking and action expressed by farmers and their consultants, (2) correspondence with theory about learning and judgement in uncertain external environments. The former utilises recorded narrative interviews with participants over many years. The latter uses a cognitive framework drawn from theory of judgment and decision making featuring the relationship between intuition and analysis (McCown, 2011).

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X11001557
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Agricultural Systems.

    Volume (Year): 106 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 33-45

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:106:y:2012:i:1:p:33-45

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy

    Related research

    Keywords: Decision support; Simulation; Information system; Cognitive system; Intuition; Climatic risk;

    References

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    1. Hayman, P. T. & Easdown, W. J., 2002. "An ecology of a DSS: reflections on managing wheat crops in the northeastern Australian grains region with WHEATMAN," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 57-77, October.
    2. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    3. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. " Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-70, October.
    4. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    5. Carberry, P. S. & Hochman, Z. & McCown, R. L. & Dalgliesh, N. P. & Foale, M. A. & Poulton, P. L. & Hargreaves, J. N. G. & Hargreaves, D. M. G. & Cawthray, S. & Hillcoat, N. & Robertson, M. J., 2002. "The FARMSCAPE approach to decision support: farmers', advisers', researchers' monitoring, simulation, communication and performance evaluation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 141-177, October.
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