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Bankruptcy Prediction: A Survey on Evolution, Critiques, and Solutions

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  • Fejér-Király Gergely

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Human Sciences Sapientia-Hungarian University of Transylvania, Miercurea Ciuc)

Abstract

After the economic crisis and the BASEL agreement, the bankruptcy prediction research has evolved substantially due to its importance in corporate finance. This paper summarizes the short history of bankruptcy prediction from the beginning until quite recently. First, it presents a short summary of bankruptcy prediction evolution pointing to the most used models. Then, it provides a summary of the most cited papers that discuss the evolution of bankruptcy prediction and of those papers that have contributed to bankruptcy prediction. Finally, it summarizes some critiques about bankruptcy prediction that the literature has formulated over time and provides some suggestions for future research on bankruptcy prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Fejér-Király Gergely, 2015. "Bankruptcy Prediction: A Survey on Evolution, Critiques, and Solutions," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 3(1), pages 93-108, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:auseab:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:93-108:n:6
    DOI: 10.1515/eb-2015-0006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard L. Constand & Rassoul Yazdipour, 2011. "Firm Failure Prediction Models: A Critique and a Review of Recent Developments," Springer Books, in: Advances in Entrepreneurial Finance, chapter 0, pages 185-204, Springer.
    2. Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Grazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Financial and economic determinants of firm default," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 373-406, August.
    3. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    4. Premachandra, I.M. & Bhabra, Gurmeet Singh & Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki, 2009. "DEA as a tool for bankruptcy assessment: A comparative study with logistic regression technique," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 412-424, March.
    5. Erkki Laitinen, 2011. "Assessing viability of Finnish reorganization and bankruptcy firms," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 167-198, April.
    6. Dimitras, A. I. & Slowinski, R. & Susmaga, R. & Zopounidis, C., 1999. "Business failure prediction using rough sets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 263-280, April.
    7. Miguel García-Posada & Juan Mora-Sanguinetti, 2014. "Are there alternatives to bankruptcy? A study of small business distress in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 287-332, August.
    8. Hernandez Tinoco, Mario & Wilson, Nick, 2013. "Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 394-419.
    9. Balcaen, Sofie & Ooghe, Hubert, 2006. "35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 63-93.
    10. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    11. Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
    12. Edward I. Altman & Gabriele Sabato, 2013. "MODELING CREDIT RISK FOR SMEs: EVIDENCE FROM THE US MARKET," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Oliviero Roggi & Edward I Altman (ed.), Managing and Measuring Risk Emerging Global Standards and Regulations After the Financial Crisis, chapter 9, pages 251-279, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
    14. Santomero, Anthony M. & Vinso, Joseph D., 1977. "Estimating the probability of failure for commercial banks and the banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 185-205, October.
    15. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    16. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    17. Korol, Tomasz & Korodi, Adrian, 2011. "An Evaluation of Effectiveness of Fuzzy Logic Model in Predicting the Business Bankruptcy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 92-107, September.
    18. Coleen C. Pantalone & Marjorie B. Platt, 1987. "Predicting commercial bank failure since deregulation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 37-47.
    19. Nico Dewaelheyns & Cynthia Hulle, 2008. "Legal reform and aggregate small and micro business bankruptcy rates: evidence from the 1997 Belgian bankruptcy code," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 409-424, December.
    20. William F. Messier, Jr. & James V. Hansen, 1988. "Inducing Rules for Expert System Development: An Example Using Default and Bankruptcy Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(12), pages 1403-1415, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamás Kristóf & Miklós Virág, 2020. "A Comprehensive Review of Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction in Hungary," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Martina Mokrišová & Jarmila Horváthová, 2023. "Domain Knowledge Features versus LASSO Features in Predicting Risk of Corporate Bankruptcy—DEA Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, November.

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