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The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence

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  • Hall, Crystal C.
  • Ariss, Lynn
  • Todorov, Alexander

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  • Hall, Crystal C. & Ariss, Lynn & Todorov, Alexander, 2007. "The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 277-290, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:103:y:2007:i:2:p:277-290
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
    2. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    3. Arkes, Hal R. & Dawes, Robyn M. & Christensen, Caryn, 1986. "Factors influencing the use of a decision rule in a probabilistic task," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 93-110, February.
    4. Huberman, Gur, 2001. "Familiarity Breeds Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 659-680.
    5. Camerer, Colin & Loewenstein, George & Weber, Martin, 1989. "The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1232-1254, October.
    6. Stewart, Thomas R. & Heideman, Kenneth F. & Moninger, William R. & Reagan-Cirincione, Patricia, 1992. "Effects of improved information on the components of skill in weather forecasting," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 107-134, November.
    7. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Dana & Robyn Dawes & Nathanial Peterson, 2013. "Belief in the unstructured interview: The persistence of an illusion," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(5), pages 512-520, September.
    2. Glenn Boyle & Gerald Ward, 2016. "Do Better Informed Investors Always Do Better?," Working Papers in Economics 16/29, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Dominik M. Piehlmaier, 2022. "Overconfidence and the adoption of robo-advice: why overconfident investors drive the expansion of automated financial advice," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Cédric Lesage & Yuan Ding & Thomas Jeanjean & Hervé Stolowy, 2009. "An experiment in the economic consequences of additional disclosure: The case of the Fair Value of Unlisted Equity Investments," Post-Print hal-00495573, HAL.
    5. Tânia Saraiva & Tiago Cruz Gonçalves, 2022. "The Role of Emotions and Knowledge on Preference for Uncertainty: Follow Your Heart but Listen to Your Brain!," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Tingwei Jiang & Huicong Fang, 2020. "The influence of user interface design on task performance and situation awareness in a 3-player diner's dilemma game," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, March.
    7. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:5:p:469-478 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ya-Hui Want, 2014. "Does Online Trading Affect Investors' Trading Intention?," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(5), pages 71-79.
    9. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Yasmina Okan & Tamar Krishnamurti & Mark D. Huffman, 2023. "The Role of Confidence and Knowledge in Intentions to (Not) Seek Care for Hypertension: Evidence From a National Survey," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 43(4), pages 461-477, May.
    10. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
    11. Xiaofang Yuan & Jing Yan & Linhui Sun & Fangming Cheng & Zigu Guo & Hongzhi Yu, 2023. "The Influence of Presentation Frames of Visualization Information for Safety on Situational Awareness under a Three-Level User-Interface Design," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-26, February.
    12. Glenn Boyle & Gerald Ward, 2018. "Do Better Informed Investors Always Do Better? A Buyback Puzzle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2137-2157, October.
    13. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:5:p:512-520 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Piehlmaier, Dominik M. & Stagno, Emanuela & Nagy, Agnes, 2023. "Overconfidence at the time of COVID-19:Does it lead to laxer attitudes?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    15. Azoulay, Pierre & Greenblatt, Wesley H. & Heggeness, Misty L., 2021. "Long-term effects from early exposure to research: Evidence from the NIH “Yellow Berets”," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    16. Weifeng Xu & Qingsong Ruan & Chang Liu, 2019. "Can the Famous University Experience of Top Managers Improve Corporate Performance? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    17. Kausel, Edgar E. & Culbertson, Satoris S. & Madrid, Hector P., 2016. "Overconfidence in personnel selection: When and why unstructured interview information can hurt hiring decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 27-44.
    18. Avery, Derek R. & McKay, Patrick F. & Volpone, Sabrina D. & Malka, Ari, 2015. "Are companies beholden to bias? The impact of leader race on consumer purchasing behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 85-102.
    19. Banik, Shanta, 2021. "Exploring the involvement-patronage link in the phygital retail experiences," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    20. David W. Lehman & Jungpil Hahn & Rangaraj Ramanujam & Bradley J. Alge, 2011. "The Dynamics of the Performance--Risk Relationship Within a Performance Period: The Moderating Role of Deadline Proximity," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(6), pages 1613-1630, December.
    21. Yuan Li & William J. Kettinger, 2022. "Testing the Relationship Between Information and Knowledge in Computer-Aided Decision-Making," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 1827-1843, December.
    22. Crystal C. Hall & Daniel M. Oppenheimer, 2015. "Error Parsing: An alternative method of implementing social judgment theory," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(5), pages 469-478, September.

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