# Elsevier

# International Journal of Forecasting

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**Series handle:**repec:eee:intfor

**ISSN:**0169-2070

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### 1993, Volume 9, Issue 2

**227-243 On the estimation of time-series quantiles using smoothed order statistics***by*Gelinas, Rene & Lefrancois, Pierre**245-253 Forecasting the failure of component parts in computer systems: A case study***by*Gardner, Everette Jr**255-269 Long-range forecasting of IBM product revenues using a seasonal fractionally differenced ARMA model***by*Ray, Bonnie K.**271-272 Leading economic indicators: New approaches and forecasting records : Kajal Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore, eds. 1992 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 464 pp., paperback [UK pound]15.95, US$22.95, ISBN 0-521-43858-6***by*Holden, Kenneth**272-272 Dynamical systems. An introduction with applications in economics and biology : Pierre N.M. Tu, 1992 (Springer, Berlin-Heidelberg), xi + 252 pp., DM 49.80, ISBN 3-540-55780-6***by*Ray, W. D.**273-274 Nonlinear modeling and forecasting : Martin Casdagli and Stephen Eubank (eds.), 1992, (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA), 533 pp., paper-back $34.50, ISBN 0-201-58788-2***by*Chen, Rong**274-275 Forecasting elections : Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 1992, (CQ Press, Washington, DC), 163 pp., paperback $18.95, ISBN 0-8718 7-600-0***by*Stekler, H. O.**275-277 Business cycles: Theory, history, indicators, and forecasting : Victor Zarnowitz, 1992, (University of Chicago Press, Chicago), xvii + 593 pp., $70.00, ISBN 0-226-97890-7***by*Boehm, Ernst A.**277-278 Guide to forecasts and projections : Don Pallais and Stephen D. Holton, 1992, (Practitioners Publishing, Fort Worth, TX), 2 vols., $120.00***by*Forsyth, Jay D.**278-279 Selling the story: The layman's guide to collecting and communicating demographic information : William Dunn, 1992, (American Demographic Books, Ithaca, NY), 245 pp., paperback $27.50, hardback $39.95, ISBN 0-936889-14-4***by*Hamrick, Karen S.**281-283 A critique of recent papers on "Trends, random walks, and break points in macroeconomic time series"***by*Fildes, Robert**284-285 "Rule-based forecasting: Development and validation of an expert systems approach to combining time series extrapolations": Fred Collopy and J. Scott Armstrong, Management science, 38 (1992) 1394-1414***by*Chatfield, Chris**285-285 "A simple nonparameteric test of predictive performance": M. Hashem Pesaran and Allan Timmerman, Journal of business and economic statistics, 10 (1992) 461-465***by*Fildes, Robert

### 1993, Volume 9, Issue 1

**1-3 Neural networks: Forecasting breakthrough or passing fad?***by*Chatfield, Chris**5-22 The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study***by*Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F.**23-24 A personal view of the M2-competition***by*Chatfield, Chris**24-25 Computational aspects and a personal view of the M2-competition***by*Hibon, Michele**25-26 The M2-competition: Some personal views***by*Lawrence, Michael**26-26 The M2-competition: Some personal reflections***by*Mills, Terence C.**28-29 The value of empirical work: A personal view***by*Makridakis, Spyros**31-37 Geoffrey H. Moore and dynamic statistical methods***by*Klein, Philip A.**39-48 Monitoring business conditions at the CIBCR***by*Cullity, John P.**49-60 Forecasting criminal sentencing decisions***by*Simester, Duncan I. & Brodie, Roderick J.**61-76 Forecasting the Swedish unemployment rate VAR vs. transfer function modelling***by*Edlund, Per-Olov & Karlsson, Sune**77-83 Evaluation of alternative leading indicators of British Columbia industrial employment***by*Holmes, Richard A. & Shamsuddin, Abul F. M.**85-93 The effect of additive outliers on the estimates from aggregated and disaggregated ARIMA models***by*Hotta, Luiz Koodi**95-108 Constrained forecasting in autoregressive time series models: A Bayesian analysis***by*de Alba, Enrique**109-115 The ambiguous nature of forecasts in project evaluation: Diagnosing the over-optimism of rate-of-return analysis***by*Ascher, William**117-120 Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test***by*Kolb, R. A. & Stekler, H. O.**121-129 Software reviews***by*Tashman, Leonard J. & Tashman, Peter A.**131-133 A manager's guide to technology forecasting and strategy analysis methods : Stephen M. Millett and Edward J. Honton, 1991, (Battelle Press, Columbus, OH), 99 pp. $19.95. ISBN 0 935470 63 8***by*Young, Peg**133-134 Scanning the future: A long term scenario study of the world economy 1990-2015 : Central Planning Bureau, 1992, (Sdu Publishers, The Hague), 246 pp., ISBN 9039902046***by*Hallett, Andrew Hughes**134-135 Nonlinear dynamics, chaos, and instability : William A. Brock, David A. Hsieh and Blake LeBaron, 1991, (MIT Press, Cambridge) 328, pp. [UK pound]29.25. ISBN 0-262-02329-6***by*de Gooijer, Jan G.**135-136 Forecasting for technologists and engineers : Brian C. Twiss, 1992, IEE Management of Technology Series 15 (Peter Peregrinus, London) pp. xv + 221, [UK pound]19.00 paperback. ISBN 0 86341 285 8***by*Ray, W. D.**137-137 Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives" : Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**138-138 The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting : D.S. Turner, Journal of Forecasting, 9 (1990), 315-345***by*McNees, Stephen**26-28 Personal views of the M2-competition***by*Ord, J. Keith & Geriner, Pamela A. & Reilly, David & Winkel, Robert**138-139 On predictive least squares principles : C.Z. Wei, The Annals of Statistics 20 (1992), 1-42***by*De Gooijer, Jan G.**137-138 Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources : Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626***by*Armstrong, J. Scott

### 1992, Volume 8, Issue 4

**543-544 Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**545-557 Business planning under uncertainty: Will we attain our goal?***by*Wu, Lilian Shiao-Yen & Hosking, J. R. M. & Doll, Jeanne M.**559-573 The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters***by*Benson, P. George & Onkal, Dilek**575-582 Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities***by*Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott**583-593 An estimation model for country risk rating***by*Oral, Muhittin & Kettani, Ossama & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Daouas, Mohamed**595-611 Combining vector forecasts to predict thoroughbred horse race outcomes***by*White, Edna M. & Dattero, Ronald & Flores, Benito**613-626 Predictive accuracy of simple versus complex econometric market share models: Theoretical and empirical results***by*Danaher, Peter J. & Brodie, Roderick J.**627-633 An extended review of the X11ARIMA seasonal adjustment package***by*Scott, Stuart**635-635 Forecasting structural time series models and the kalman filter: Andrew Harvey, 1989, (Cambridge University Press), 554 pp., ISBN 0-521-32196-4***by*Fildes, Robert**637-637 Into the 21st century: A handbook for a sustainable future: Brian Burroughs, Alan Mayne and Paul Newbury, 1992, (Adamantine Press, London), pp. 442, softback [UK pound]15.95, hardback[UK pound]32.50***by*Miles, Ian**639-641 Encyclopedia of world problems and human potential: Union of international associations, 1991, (K.G. Saur, Munich), Vol. 1, 950 pp; Vol. 2, 1188 pp., hardcover, ISBN 3-598-10842-7, US$400.00***by*Halal, William E.**641-643 Taming the future: Kenneth E.F. Watt, 1991, (Contextured Web Press, Davis, CA), pp. 163, ISBN 1-880014-01-7, US$40.00***by*Porter, Alan L.**643-644 Modeling and forecasting demand in tourism: Stephen F. Witt and Christine A. Witt, 1992, (Academic Press, London), pp. 195, ISBN 0-127-60740-4, [UK pound]35.00***by*Mahmoud, Essam**644-646 Forecasting systems for operations management: Stephen A. Delurgio and Carl D. Bhame, 1991, (Business One Irwin, Homewood, IL), pp. 648, hardback, US$49.95***by*Fields, Paul J.**646-646 The art of modeling dynamic systems: Forecasting for chaos, randomness, and determinism: F. Morrison, 1991, (Wiley-Interscience, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York), pp. 387, ISBN 0-471-52004-7, $54.95***by*Priesmeyer, H. Richard**647-648 Forecasting with dynamic regression models: Alan Pankratz, 1991, (John Wiley and Sons, New York), ISBN 0-471-61528-5, [UK pound]47.50***by*Kennedy, Peter**649-649 Journal of business research : "Analysis and comparison of financial analysts', time series, and combined forecast of annual earnings", 24 (1992) 269-280***by*Lobo, Gerald J.**650-651 Journal of the American statistics association: "Likelihood and bayesian prediction of chaotic systems", 86 (1991) 938-952***by*Berliner, L. Mark**651-652 Journal of behavioral decision making: "The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting", 5 (1992) 39-52***by*Sanders, Nada R. & Ritzman, Larry P.**649-650 Leading economic indicators: "A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates"***by*Lahiri, Kajal**637-639 The next three futures: Paradigms of things to come: W. Warren Wagar, 1992,(Adamantine Press, London), pp.xxi + 165, [UK pound]13.95***by*Miles, Ian**635-637 Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models: Mike West and Jeff Harrison, 1989,(Springer), 704 pp., ISBN 0-387-97025-8***by*Fildes, Robert

### 1992, Volume 8, Issue 3

**289-299 Population forecasting: Guest editors' introduction***by*Ahlburg, Dennis A. & Land, Kenneth C.**301-314 The magnitude of error due to different vital processes in population forecasts***by*Alho, Juha M.**315-327 Stochastic demographic forecasting***by*Lee, Ronald D.**329-338 Forecasting US population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach***by*Pflaumer, Peter**339-365 Projecting the number of new AIDS cases in the United States***by*Bloom, David E. & Glied, Sherry**367-384 The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa : Short- and long-term projections***by*Bos, Eduard & Bulatao, Rodolfo A.**385-391 Stochastic population forecasts and their uses***by*Tuljapurkar, Shripad**393-411 Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality***by*Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D.**413-432 Forecasting cause-specific mortality using time series methods***by*McNown, Robert & Rogers, Andrei**433-458 Projecting the future size and health status of the US elderly population***by*Manton, Kenneth G. & Stallard, Eric & Singer, Burt**459-476 Immigration and immigrant generations in population projections***by*Edmonston, Barry & Passel, Jeffrey S.**477-493 Predicting childlessness for recent cohorts of American women***by*Morgan, S. Philip & Chen, Renbao**495-508 Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states***by*Smith, Stanley K. & Sincich, Terry**509-527 A comparison of four methods for projecting households***by*Mason, Andrew & Racelis, Rachel**529-539 Into the twenty-first century with British households***by*Spicer, Keith & Diamond, Ian & Ni Bhrolchain, Marie

### 1992, Volume 8, Issue 2

**135-156 Some recent developments in non-linear time series modelling, testing, and forecasting***by*De Gooijer, Jan G. & Kumar, Kuldeep**157-173 On continuous-time threshold autoregression***by*Brockwell, P. J. & Hyndman, R. J.**175-185 An object oriented approach to forecasting***by*Assimakopoulos, Vassilis & Konida, Alexandra**187-199 Non-cointegration and causality: Implications for VAR modeling***by*Shoesmith, Gary L.**201-217 Forecasting economic activity rates***by*Briscoe, G. & Wilson, R.**219-231 Using stochastic simulation to test the effect of seasonal adjustment on forecast standard errors of motor gasoline demand***by*Joutz, Frederick & Trost, Robert**233-241 Top-down or bottom-up: Aggregate versus disaggregate extrapolations***by*Dangerfield, Byron J. & Morris, John S.**243-249 Identification of key attributes, gap analysis and simulation techniques in forecasting market potential of ethical pharmaceutical products***by*Kontzalis, Panos**251-267 Bridging the gap between theory and practice in forecasting***by*Mahmoud, Essam & DeRoeck, Richard & Brown, Robert & Rice, Gillian**269-270 The practice of econometrics: Classical and contemporary : Ernst R. Berndt, (Addison-Wesley Publishing company, Reading, Mass., 1991), pp. 702, $18.95***by*Fildes, Robert**270-271 Japanese financial market research : W.T. Ziemba, W. Bailey and Y. Hamao, eds., (Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1991), pp. 616, $69.50, Dfl 175.00***by*Flavell, Richard**271-274 Seasonal adjustment as a practical problem : F.A.G. den Butter and M.M.G. Fase, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1991), pp. iv + 226, US$94.50, Dfl 165.00***by*Henry, Brian**274-275 The evolution of the future : Frank W. Elwell, (Praeger publishers, New York, NY, 1991), pp. 144. $37.95***by*Wilson, Ian**277-279 Management science : D. Bunn and G. Wright, "Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis", 37 (1991) 501-518***by*Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott**279-279 Public opinion quarterly : Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources" 54 (1990) 609-626***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**279-282 American economic review : Gordon Leitch and J. Ernest Tanner, "Economic forecast evaluation: Profit versus the conventional error measures", 81 (1991) 580-590***by*Filders, Robert

### 1992, Volume 8, Issue 1

**1-2 Influencing forecasting practice***by*Filde, Robert**3-13 Forecasting stock market prices: Lessons for forecasters***by*Granger, Clive W. J.**15-26 Exploring judgemental forecasting***by*Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus**27-43 An empirical analysis of the accuracy of SA, OLS, ERLS and NRLS combination forecasts***by*Aksu, Celal & Gunter, Sevket I.**45-59 Nonnegativity restricted least squares combinations***by*Gunter, Sevket I.**61-67 Trading days, seasonal unit root, and variance change***by*Coelho, Carlos Henrique Motta & Tenenblat, Moyses**69-80 Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons***by*Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred**81-98 The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods***by*Fildes, Robert**99-100 Error measures and the choice of a forecast method***by*Ahlburg, Dennis A.**100-102 A commentary on error measures***by*Chatfield, Chris**102-103 Comparing forecasts in finance***by*Taylor, Stephen J.**103-104 A statistician in search of a population***by*Thompson, Patrick A.**104-107 On seeking a best performance measure or a best forecasting method***by*Winkler, Robert L. & Murphy, Allan H.**107-109 Generalization and communication issues in the use of error measures: A reply***by*Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott**109-111 On error measures: A response to the commentators -- the best error measure?***by*Fildes, Robert**113-114 Successful business forecasting : J.C. Compton and S.B. Compton, 1990, (Liberty Hall Press), pp. 202, ISBN 0-8306-0207-0, $21.95***by*Yokum, Thomas**116-117 Exchange rate forecasting : Christian Dunis and Michael Feeny, eds., (Probus Publishing Company, Chicago, IL.), pp. 356***by*Stallings, David**118-119 Prediction, projection and forecasting : Thomas L. Saaty and Luis G. Vargas, (Kluwer, Norwell, MA, 1991), pp. 251, $57.50***by*Goodwin, Paul

### 1992, Volume 7, Issue 4

**409-411 Fundamental aspects of forecasting in organizations***by*Schultz, Randall L.**413-420 Time series characteristics and the widths of judgemental confidence intervals***by*O'Connor, Marcus & Lawrence, Michael**421-433 Judgmental adjustment of forecasts: A comparison of methods***by*Flores, Benito E. & Olson, David L. & Wolfe, Christopher**435-455 Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts***by*Murphy, Allan H. & Winkler, Robert L.**457-466 Economic, organizational, and political influences on biases in forecasting state sales tax receipts***by*Bretschneider, Stuart & Gorr, Wilpen**467-472 Predicting the job performance of managers: What do the experts know?***by*Ahlburg, Dennis A.**473-481 A Kalman filter formulation for noisy regional job data***by*Coomes, Paul A.**483-492 Population, labour force and unemployment in Andalusia: Prospects for 1993***by*Otero, JoseM. & Martin, Guillermina & Trujillo, Francisco & Fernandez, Antonio**493-500 Commodity prices and the CPI: Cointegration, information, and signal extraction***by*Pecchenino, R. A.**501-513 On the cumulated multi-step-ahead predictions of vector autoregressive moving average processes***by*de Gooijer, Jan G. & Klein, Andre**515-529 The effect of nonstationarity on combined forecasts***by*Miller, Christopher M. & Clemen, Robert T. & Winkler, Robert L.**531-532 The econometric analysis of time series : A.C. Harvey, second edition (MIT Press, Cambridge, 1990) pp. 387, $47.50***by*Weller, Barry R.**532-533 Time Series : Sir Maurice Kendall and J. Keith Ord, third edition (Edward Arnold, Great Britain, 1990) pp. 296***by*Holmes, William M.**535-536 Business forecasting methods : Jeffrey Jarrett, second edition (Basil Blackwell Ltd., Oxford, UK, 1991) pp. 463, $19.95***by*Price, Barbara A.**536-538 Statistical analysis and forecasting of economic structural change : Peter Hackl (ed.), (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1989) pp. 489, $106.00***by*Oller, Lars-Erik**538-539 Economic structural change: Analysis and forecasting : Peter Hackl and Anders H. Westlund (eds.), (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1991) pp. 385, DM 148***by*Holden, Ken**539-540 Comparative performance of U.S. econometric models : Lawrence R. Klein, (ed.), (Oxford University Press, New York, 1991) pp. 325, $45.00***by*Stekler, H. O.**540-541 Oil and gas forecasting: Reflections of a petroleum geologist : Lawrence J. Drew, (Oxford University Press, New York, 1990) $45.00***by*Arafa, Hazem**543-553 Software reviews***by*Tashman, Leonard J. & Withycombe, Richard

### 1991, Volume 7, Issue 3

**257-270 New technology adoption in an innovative marketplace: Micro- and macro-level decision making models***by*Bridges, Eileen & Coughlan, Anne T. & Kalish, Shlomo**271-282 The use of biased predictors in marketing research***by*Hill, R. Carter & Cartwright, Phillip A. & Arbaugh, Julia F.**283-297 Probability distributions of short-term electricity peak load forecasts***by*Adams, Gail & Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J.**299-315 Using belief networks to forecast oil prices***by*Abramson, Bruce & Finizza, Anthony**317-330 Exponential smoothing: The effect of initial values and loss functions on post-sample forecasting accuracy***by*Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele**331-334 Evaluation of the M-competition forecasts via log mean squared error ratio***by*Thompson, Patrick A.**335-337 Assessing the statistical characteristics of the mean absolute error or forecasting***by*Wun, Lap-Ming & Pearn, Wen Lea**339-347 ARIMA forecasts with restrictions derived from a structural change***by*Guerrero, Victor M.**349-356 Forecast selection when all forecasts are not equally recent***by*Brown, Lawrence D.**375-384 Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques***by*Stekler, H. O.**385-387 The foreign exchange market: Theory and econometric evidence : R.T. Baillie and P.C. McMahon, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1989)***by*Tivegna, Massimo**387-388 Business cycles and forecasting : L.M. Valentine and D.F. Ellis, eighth edition (South-Western Publishing Company, Cincinnati, Dallas and Livermore, 1991) pp. 586, [UK pound]16.95***by*Thompson, J. L.**388-389 Economic forecasting: an introduction : K. Holden, D.A. Peel and J.L. Thompson,(Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1991) ISBN 0521 356121, 0521 35692x. h/b [UK pound]30.00, $44.5; p/b [UK pound]10.95, $16.95***by*Fisher, Paul**389-390 Time series analysis univariate and multivariate methods : William W.S. Wei, (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1990)***by*Lai, T. H.**392-392 The new palgrave: Time series and statistics : John Eatwell, Murray Milgate and Perter Newman, (W.W. Norton, New York, 1990)***by*Niemira, Michael P.**395-398 Software reviews***by*Picket, John C.**400-400 The lead and accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts : R.A. Kolb, and H.O. Stekler, Journal of Macroeconomics 12 (1990) 111-123***by*Fildes, Robert**401-401 The role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasting : D.S. Turner, Journal of Forecasting 9 (1990) 315-345***by*McNees, Stephen**403-406 Comparing classification techniques***by*Kennedy, Peter**400-401 Innocents in the forest: Forecasting and research methods : P. Narayan Pant and William H. Starbuck, Journal of Management 16 (1990) 433-460***by*Collopy, Fred**392-393 Uncertainty in national population forecasting: Issues, backgrounds, analyses, recommendations : N.C. Keilman, (Swets & Zeitlinger, 1990) pp. 211***by*Alho, J.

### 1991, Volume 7, Issue 2

**123-126 Forecasting in the 21st century***by*Makridakis, Spyros**127-140 Automatic forecasting using explanatory variables: A comparative study***by*Geriner, Pamela Texter & Ord, J. Keith**141-149 The effect of group interaction processes on performance in time series extrapolation***by*Ang, Soon & O'Connor, Marcus**151-154 The effect of graphical adjustment on forecast accuracy***by*Willemain, Thomas R.**155-163 Professional forecast error as a function of a variable forecast horizon: A decomposition analysis***by*Smith, Kenneth L. & Brocato, Joe & Dabbs, Russell E.**165-170 Do consensus forecasts exist?***by*Schnader, M. H. & Stekler, H. O.**171-181 In-sample and out-of-sample forecasts of wage adjustment in indexed and non-indexed labour contracts***by*Christofides, Louis N.**183-197 Empirical Bayes methods for telecommunications forecasting***by*Greis, Noel P. & Gilstein, C. Zachary**199-208 Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series***by*Franses, Philip Hans**209-230 Automatic forecasting software: A survey and evaluation***by*Tashman, Leonard J. & Leach, Michael L.**231-238 Using interindustry input-output relations as a Bayesian prior in employment forecasting models***by*LeSage, James P. & Magura, Michael**239-240 On confusing lead time demand with h-period-ahead forecasts***by*Chatfield, Christopher & Koehler, Anne B.**241-241 A managerial guide to business forecasting : Dennis Ellis and Jay Nathan, (Graceway Publishing Co., Flushing, NY, 1990), paperback, pp. 162***by*Copulsky, William**242-242 A short history of the future : W. Warren Wager, (The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, 1989), pp. 323***by*Copulsky, William**243-245 Introductory business forecasting : Paul Newbold and Theodore Bos, (South-western, Cincinnati, OH,1990), pp. 497***by*Heitmann, George**245-246 What futurists believe : Joseph F. Coates and Jennifer Jarrett, (Lomond Publication, Inc., Mt. Airy, MD and The World Future Society, Bethesda, MD, 1989)***by*Fisher, Joseph L.**248-249 Econometric modelling of agricultural commodity markets : David Hallam, (Routledge, London, UK, 1990), [UK pound]35.00, ISBN 0-415-00405-5***by*Byers, David**249-249 Non-linear time series : Howell Tong, (Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1990), pp. 564, [UK pound]50.00***by*Chatfield, Chris**251-252 Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model +50% manager : Robert C. Blattberg and Stephen J. Hoch, Management Science 36 (1990) 887-899***by*Fildes, Robert**252-252 A cautionary tale about multiple regression : Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1991) 48-49***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**253-254 Combining forecasts: Operational adjustments to theoretical optimal rules : David C. Schmittlein, Jinho Kim and Donald G. Morrison, Management Science 36 (1990) 1044-1056***by*Fildes, Robert**254-254 Prelaunch forecasting of new automobiles : Glen L. Urban, John R. Hauser and John H. Roberts, Management Science 36 (1990) 401-421***by*Fildes, Robert**252-253 Market and survey forecasts of the three-month treasury bill rate : R.W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein and S. Scott MacDonald, Journal of Business (1991) forthcoming***by*Stekler, H. O.**242-243 Economic modelling in the OECD countries : Homa Motamen, ed., (Chapman and Hall, London, U.K., 1988), pp. 746, [UK pound]89.00***by*Holden, Ken

### 1991, Volume 7, Issue 1

**1-2 Is there a gap between forecasting theory and practice? A personal view***by*DeRoeck, Richard**3-16 Forecasting residential consumption of natural gas using monthly and quarterly time series***by*Liu, Lon-Mu & Lin, Maw-Wen**17-30 Forecasting with vector ARMA and state space methods***by*Aksu, Celal & Narayan, Jack Y.**31-37 Prediction intervals for multiplicative Holt-Winters***by*Chatfield, Chris & Yar, Mohammed**39-45 Forecast sufficiency characteristic: Construction and application***by*Krzysztofowicz, Roman & Long, Dou**47-55 Beta likelihood models of probabilistic forecasts***by*Krzysztofowicz, Roman & Long, Dou**57-63 Alternative methods of combining security analysts' and statistical forecasts of annual corporate earnings***by*Lobo, Gerald J.**65-76 Forecasting the educational participation rate of 16-year olds in England and Wales: A socio-economic approach***by*Whitfield, Keith & Wilson, R. A.**77-104 Microsimulation -- A survey of principles, developments and applications***by*Merz, Joachim**105-106 Forecasting, planning and strategy for the 21st century : Spyros Makridakis, 1990, (Free Press, New York), pp. 293, $29.95***by*Schnaars, Steven P.**106-108 Practical sales forecasting : E.J. Davis, (McGraw-Hill Book Company, London, 1988), pp. x + 291, $13.95***by*Speece, Mark W.**108-108 Business forecasting in a Lotus 1-2-3 environment : Colin Lewis, (Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1989), pp. 98 (software included), [UK pound]19.95***by*Jex, Colin**117-118 The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior : Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Marketing 6 (1989) 183-198***by*Brodie, Roderick J. & Armstrong, J. Scott**118-118 Evaluating forecast performance in an inventory control system : Everette S. Gardner Jr., Management Science 36 (1990) 490-499***by*Fildes, Robert**119-119 Sliding simulation: A new approach to time series forecasting : Spyros Makridakis, Management Science 36 (1990) 505-512***by*Fildes, Robert**118-119 Time series models for count or qualitative observations : A.C. Harvey and C. Fernandes, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 7 (1989) 407-422***by*Winkler, Rober L.**108-109 Envisioning information : Edward R. Tufte, (Graphics Press, Cheshire, CT, 1990), pp. 126, $48.00***by*Rosen, Barry N.

### 1990, Volume 6, Issue 4

**449-451 The role of time series analysis in forecasting: A personal view***by*de Gooijer, Jap G.**453-461 Forecasting the business cycle using survey data***by*Oller, Lars-Erik**463-468 Use of preliminary values in forecasting industrial production***by*Boucelham, Jamel & Terasvirta, Timo**469-477 Comparing forecasts from fixed and variable coefficient models: The case of money demand***by*Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Kennickell, Arthur B. & von zur Muehlen, Peter**479-484 A modification of time series forecasting methods for handling announced price increases***by*Carreno, Jose Juan & Madinaveitia, Jesus**485-495 Time-series decomposition using the sinusoidal model***by*Simmons, L. F.**497-499 "In defense of ARIMA modeling", by D.J. Pack***by*Geurts, Michael D. & Kelly, J. Patrick**501-502 Comments on: "In defense of ARIMA modeling", by M.D. Geurts and J.P. Kelly***by*Pack, David J.**503-508 The use of prior information in forecast combination***by*Diebold, Francis X. & Pauly, Peter