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  • Geweke, John


The article by Zellner and Ando proposes methods for coping with the excess kurtosis that is often observed in disturbances in applications of the seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) model. This is an important topic which is of particular relevance in forecasting. However, the proposed methods do not address the problem: the direct Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm is incorrect and the proposed variant of the Student-t distribution cannot account for thick tails in the distribution of disturbances in the SUR model.

Suggested Citation

  • Geweke, John, 2010. "Comment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 435-438, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:2:p:435-438

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Tomohiro Ando, 2007. "Bayesian predictive information criterion for the evaluation of hierarchical Bayesian and empirical Bayes models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(2), pages 443-458.
    2. Chib, Siddhartha & Tiwari, Ram C. & Jammalamadaka, S. Rao, 1988. "Bayes prediction in regressions with elliptical errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 349-360, July.
    3. Ng, Vee Ming, 2002. "Robust Bayesian Inference for Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with Elliptical Errors," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 409-414, November.
    4. Zellner, Arnold & Bauwens, Luc & Van Dijk, Herman K., 1988. "Bayesian specification analysis and estimation of simultaneous equation models using Monte Carlo methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 39-72.
    5. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    6. Smith, Michael & Kohn, Robert, 2000. "Nonparametric seemingly unrelated regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 257-281, October.
    7. Vrontos, I D & Dellaportas, P & Politis, D N, 2000. "Full Bayesian Inference for GARCH and EGARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 187-198, April.
    8. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika van der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639.
    9. Zellner, Arnold & Chen, Bin, 2001. "Bayesian Modeling Of Economies And Data Requirements," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(05), pages 673-700, November.
    10. Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 2001. "Further Results on Bayesian Method of Moments Analysis of the Multiple Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 121-140, February.
    11. Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993. "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
    12. Fraser, D.A.S. & Rekkas, M. & Wong, A., 2005. "Highly accurate likelihood analysis for the seemingly unrelated regression problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 17-33, July.
    13. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
    14. Geweke, J, 1993. "Bayesian Treatment of the Independent Student- t Linear Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 19-40, Suppl. De.
    15. Judith A. Chevalier & Anil K. Kashyap & Peter E. Rossi, 2003. "Why Don't Prices Rise During Periods of Peak Demand? Evidence from Scanner Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 15-37, March.
    16. Zellner, Arnold, 1998. "The finite sample properties of simultaneous equations' estimates and estimators Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 185-212.
    17. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, P.E.Peter E., 2004. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with fat-tails and correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 185-212, September.
    18. Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June.
    19. Thaís C. O. Fonseca & Marco A. R. Ferreira & Helio S. Migon, 2008. "Objective Bayesian analysis for the Student-t regression model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(2), pages 325-333.
    20. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
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