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Group diversity and decision quality: Amplification and attenuation of the framing effect

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  • Yaniv, Ilan

Abstract

Do groups make better judgments and decisions than individuals? We tested the hypothesis that the advantage of groups over individuals in decision-making depends on the group composition. Our study used susceptibility to the framing effect as a measure of decision quality. Individuals were assigned to one of two perspectives on a choice problem. The individuals were asked to indicate their individual preference between a risky option and a risk-free option. Next, they were asked to consider the same (or a related) choice problem as a group. Homogeneous groups were composed of similarly framed individuals, while the heterogeneous ones were composed of differently framed individuals. In comparison to individual preferences, the homogeneous groups' preferences were polarized, and thus the framing effect was amplified; in contrast, the heterogeneous groups' preferences converged, and thus the framing effect was reduced to zero. The findings are discussed with regard to group polarization, the effects of heterogeneity on group performance, and the Delphi forecasting method.

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  • Yaniv, Ilan, 2011. "Group diversity and decision quality: Amplification and attenuation of the framing effect," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 41-49, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:1:p:41-49
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    1. Tindale, R. Scott & Sheffey, Susan & Scott, Leslie A., 1993. "Framing and Group Decision-Making: Do Cognitive Changes Parallel Preference Changes?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 470-485, August.
    2. Gary Bornstein & Ilan Yaniv, 1998. "Individual and Group Behavior in the Ultimatum Game: Are Groups More “Rational” Players?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 1(1), pages 101-108, June.
    3. Paese, Paul W. & Bieser, Mary & Tubbs, Mark E., 1993. "Framing Effects and Choice Shifts in Group Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 149-165, October.
    4. Milch, Kerry F. & Weber, Elke U. & Appelt, Kirstin C. & Handgraaf, Michel J.J. & Krantz, David H., 2009. "From individual preference construction to group decisions: Framing effects and group processes," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 242-255, March.
    5. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    6. Sniezek, Janet A., 1992. "Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 124-155, June.
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    1. repec:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:1:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jiang, Ruth & Kleer, Robin & Piller, Frank T., 2017. "Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 84-97.
    3. Wright, George & Rowe, Gene, 2011. "Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-13, January.
    4. Philipp Ecken & Richard Pibernik, 2016. "Hit or Miss: What Leads Experts to Take Advice for Long-Term Judgments?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(7), pages 2002-2021, July.
    5. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    6. Winkler, Jens & Moser, Roger, 2016. "Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 63-76.

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