IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v132y2018icp217-229.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The future of omnichannel retail: A four-stage Delphi study

Author

Listed:
  • von Briel, Frederik

Abstract

Omnichannel retail refers to the integration of retail channels like stores, online, and mobile into a single, seamless customer experience. The emergence of new online channels has had a major impact on the retail industry over the past decade, and it is expected that the need to integrate different channels will transform the retail industry over the next decade. We conducted a four-stage Delphi study with eighteen retail experts to identify the key trends, major challenges, important technologies, and main customer touchpoints that will emerge in omnichannel retail in the next ten years. Using both qualitative and quantitative data analysis techniques, we first elicited open-ended predictions from experts, then transformed and consolidated these predictions into close-ended statements, to finally obtain expert ratings of these statements and analyze changes of expert ratings between two consecutive stages. Based on this approach we derived four broad themes of core insights: future competition in the retail industry will be based on holistic customer experiences; omnichannel retail requires the development of human capabilities and changes in the organizational mindset; physical stores will become key destinations for unique sensory shopping experiences; and omnichannel retail will improve operational productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • von Briel, Frederik, 2018. "The future of omnichannel retail: A four-stage Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 217-229.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:132:y:2018:i:c:p:217-229
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.02.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518302026
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.02.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herhausen, Dennis & Binder, Jochen & Schoegel, Marcus & Herrmann, Andreas, 2015. "Integrating Bricks with Clicks: Retailer-Level and Channel-Level Outcomes of Online–Offline Channel Integration," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 309-325.
    2. Yaniv, Ilan, 2011. "Group diversity and decision quality: Amplification and attenuation of the framing effect," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 41-49, January.
    3. Rapp, Adam & Baker, Thomas L. & Bachrach, Daniel G. & Ogilvie, Jessica & Beitelspacher, Lauren Skinner, 2015. "Perceived customer showrooming behavior and the effect on retail salesperson self-efficacy and performance," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 358-369.
    4. Yaniv, Ilan, 2011. "Group diversity and decision quality: Amplification and attenuation of the framing effect," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 41-49.
    5. Santiago Gallino & Antonio Moreno, 2014. "Integration of Online and Offline Channels in Retail: The Impact of Sharing Reliable Inventory Availability Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1434-1451, June.
    6. Grewal, Dhruv & Roggeveen, Anne L. & Nordfält, Jens, 2017. "The Future of Retailing," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-6.
    7. Baxendale, Shane & Macdonald, Emma K. & Wilson, Hugh N., 2015. "The Impact of Different Touchpoints on Brand Consideration," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 235-253.
    8. Verhoef, Peter C. & Kannan, P.K. & Inman, J. Jeffrey, 2015. "From Multi-Channel Retailing to Omni-Channel Retailing," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 174-181.
    9. Pentina, Iryna & Pelton, Lou E. & Hasty, Ronald W., 2009. "Performance Implications of Online Entry Timing by Store-Based Retailers: A Longitudinal Investigation," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 177-193.
    10. Ribeiro, Barbara E. & Quintanilla, Miguel A., 2015. "Transitions in biofuel technologies: An appraisal of the social impacts of cellulosic ethanol using the Delphi method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 53-68.
    11. Keller, Jonas & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "The influence of information and communication technology (ICT) on future foresight processes — Results from a Delphi survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 81-92.
    12. Melis, Kristina & Campo, Katia & Breugelmans, Els & Lamey, Lien, 2015. "The Impact of the Multi-channel Retail Mix on Online Store Choice: Does Online Experience Matter?," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 272-288.
    13. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    14. Min, Sungwook & Wolfinbarger, Mary, 2005. "Market share, profit margin, and marketing efficiency of early movers, bricks and clicks, and specialists in e-commerce," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(8), pages 1030-1039, August.
    15. Munier, Francis & Ronde, Patrick, 2001. "The role of knowledge codification in the emergence of consensus under uncertainty: empirical analysis and policy implications," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 1537-1551, December.
    16. Warth, Johannes & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2013. "A dissent-based approach for multi-stakeholder scenario development — The future of electric drive vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 566-583.
    17. Pauwels, Koen & Neslin, Scott A., 2015. "Building With Bricks and Mortar: The Revenue Impact of Opening Physical Stores in a Multichannel Environment," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 182-197.
    18. David A Griffith & Salih Tamer Cavusgil & Shichun Xu, 2008. "Emerging themes in international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 39(7), pages 1220-1235, October.
    19. Zhang, Jie & Farris, Paul W. & Irvin, John W. & Kushwaha, Tarun & Steenburgh, Thomas J. & Weitz, Barton A., 2010. "Crafting Integrated Multichannel Retailing Strategies," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 168-180.
    20. Barnes, Stuart J. & Mattsson, Jan, 2016. "Understanding current and future issues in collaborative consumption: A four-stage Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 200-211.
    21. Jiang, Ruth & Kleer, Robin & Piller, Frank T., 2017. "Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 84-97.
    22. Armstrong, J. Scott & Overton, Terry S., 1977. "Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys," MPRA Paper 81694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Wang, Rebecca Jen-Hui & Malthouse, Edward C. & Krishnamurthi, Lakshman, 2015. "On the Go: How Mobile Shopping Affects Customer Purchase Behavior," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 217-234.
    24. Sorescu, Alina & Frambach, Ruud T. & Singh, Jagdip & Rangaswamy, Arvind & Bridges, Cheryl, 2011. "Innovations in Retail Business Models," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 87(S1), pages 3-16.
    25. Spickermann, Alexander & Zimmermann, Martin & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Surface- and deep-level diversity in panel selection — Exploring diversity effects on response behaviour in foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 105-120.
    26. Beck, Norbert & Rygl, David, 2015. "Categorization of multiple channel retailing in Multi-, Cross-, and Omni†Channel Retailing for retailers and retailing," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 170-178.
    27. van Baal, Sebastian, 2014. "Should retailers harmonize marketing variables across their distribution channels? An investigation of cross-channel effects in multi-channel retailing," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1038-1046.
    28. Anantaram Balakrishnan & Shankar Sundaresan & Bo Zhang, 2014. "Browse-and-Switch: Retail-Online Competition under Value Uncertainty," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 23(7), pages 1129-1145, July.
    29. Poba-Nzaou, Placide & Lemieux, Nathalie & Beaupré, Daniel & Uwizeyemungu, Sylvestre, 2016. "Critical challenges associated with the adoption of social media: A Delphi of a panel of Canadian human resources managers," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4011-4019.
    30. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1996. "The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 73-89, March.
    31. von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2012. "Consensus measurement in Delphi studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1525-1536.
    32. Inman, J. Jeffrey & Nikolova, Hristina, 2017. "Shopper-Facing Retail Technology: A Retailer Adoption Decision Framework Incorporating Shopper Attitudes and Privacy Concerns," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 7-28.
    33. Philipp Ecken & Richard Pibernik, 2016. "Hit or Miss: What Leads Experts to Take Advice for Long-Term Judgments?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(7), pages 2002-2021, July.
    34. Cao, Lanlan & Li, Li, 2015. "The Impact of Cross-Channel Integration on Retailers’ Sales Growth," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-216.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. João M. Lopes & Ana Sousa & Eva Calçada & José Oliveira, 2022. "A citation and co-citation bibliometric analysis of omnichannel marketing research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 1017-1050, December.
    2. Vaishnav, Bharat & Ray, Sourav, 2023. "A thematic exploration of the evolution of research in multichannel marketing," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Shakir Goraya, M. Awais & Zhu, Jing & Akram, Muhammad Shakaib & Shareef, Mahmud Akhter & Malik, Aneela & Bhatti, Zeeshan Ahmed, 2022. "The impact of channel integration on consumers’ channel preferences: Do showrooming and webrooming behaviors matter?," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Saghiri, Soroosh & Wilding, Richard & Mena, Carlos & Bourlakis, Michael, 2017. "Toward a three-dimensional framework for omni-channel," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 53-67.
    5. Tagashira, Takumi & Minami, Chieko, 2019. "The Effect of Cross-Channel Integration on Cost Efficiency," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 68-83.
    6. Wagner, Gerhard & Schramm-Klein, Hanna & Steinmann, Sascha, 2020. "Online retailing across e-channels and e-channel touchpoints: Empirical studies of consumer behavior in the multichannel e-commerce environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 256-270.
    7. Neslin, Scott A., 2022. "The omnichannel continuum: Integrating online and offline channels along the customer journey," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 111-132.
    8. Christiane Lehrer & Manuel Trenz, 2022. "Omnichannel Business," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 32(2), pages 687-699, June.
    9. Timoumi, Ahmed & Gangwar, Manish & Mantrala, Murali K., 2022. "Cross-channel effects of omnichannel retail marketing strategies: A review of extant data-driven research," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 133-151.
    10. Cai, Ya-Jun & Lo, Chris K.Y., 2020. "Omni-channel management in the new retailing era: A systematic review and future research agenda," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Roßmann, Bernhard & Canzaniello, Angelo & von der Gracht, Heiko & Hartmann, Evi, 2018. "The future and social impact of Big Data Analytics in Supply Chain Management: Results from a Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 135-149.
    12. Maier, Erik & Bornschein, Rico & Manss, Rico & Hesse, Damian, 2023. "Financial consequences of adding bricks to clicks," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 609-628.
    13. Tueanrat, Yanika & Papagiannidis, Savvas & Alamanos, Eleftherios, 2021. "A conceptual framework of the antecedents of customer journey satisfaction in omnichannel retailing," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    14. Barwitz, Niklas & Maas, Peter, 2018. "Understanding the Omnichannel Customer Journey: Determinants of Interaction Choice," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 116-133.
    15. Alice Mazzucchelli & Roberto Chierici & Francesca Ceruti & Laura Gavinelli, 2017. "Competing in an omnichannel environment. e-tailers strategies and challenges," ESPERIENZE D'IMPRESA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2017(1), pages 5-28.
    16. Frevel, Nicolas & Beiderbeck, Daniel & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2022. "The impact of technology on sports – A prospective study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    17. Paula Rodríguez–Torrico & Sonia San–Martín & Rebeca San José Cabezudo, 2020. "Consumer behavior using multiple channels: a review," DOCFRADIS Working Papers 2002, Catedra Fundación Ramón Areces de Distribución Comercial, revised Jul 2020.
    18. Catherine Viot & Grégory Bressolles, 2021. "Les détaillants face au défi du commerce connecté : Une étude multisectorielle," Post-Print hal-03229956, HAL.
    19. Schlecht, Laura & Schneider, Sabrina & Buchwald, Arne, 2021. "The prospective value creation potential of Blockchain in business models: A delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    20. Kopyto, Matthias & Lechler, Sabrina & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hartmann, Evi, 2020. "Potentials of blockchain technology in supply chain management: Long-term judgments of an international expert panel," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:132:y:2018:i:c:p:217-229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.