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EvacuAid: A Probabilistic Model to Determine the Expected Loss of Life for Different Mass Evacuation Strategies During Flood Threats

Author

Listed:
  • Bas Kolen
  • Matthijs Kok
  • Ira Helsloot
  • Bob Maaskant

Abstract

Evacuation of people in case of a threat is a possible risk management strategy. Evacuation has the potential to save lives, but it can be costly with respect to time, money, and credibility. The consequences of an evacuation strategy depend on a combination of the time available, citizen response, authority response, and capacity of the infrastructure. The literature that discusses evacuations in case of flood risk management focuses, in most cases, only on a best‐case strategy as a preventive evacuation and excludes other possible strategies. This article introduces a probabilistic method, EvacuAid, to determine the benefits of different types of evacuation with regards to loss of life. The method is applied for a case study in the Netherlands for preventive and vertical evacuation due to flood risk. The results illustrate the impact of uncertainties in available time and actual conditions (e.g., the responses of citizens and authorities and the use of infrastructure). It is concluded that preparation for evacuation requires adaptive planning that takes preventive and vertical evacuation into account, based on a risk management approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Bas Kolen & Matthijs Kok & Ira Helsloot & Bob Maaskant, 2013. "EvacuAid: A Probabilistic Model to Determine the Expected Loss of Life for Different Mass Evacuation Strategies During Flood Threats," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1312-1333, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:7:p:1312-1333
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01932.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Bob Maaskant & Ezra Boyd & Marc Lloyd Levitan, 2009. "Loss of Life Caused by the Flooding of New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina: Analysis of the Relationship Between Flood Characteristics and Mortality," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(5), pages 676-698, May.
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    3. Ezra Boyd, 2006. "New Orleans was prepared but it was overwhelmed," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7100), pages 244-244, July.
    4. Urbina, Elba & Wolshon, Brian, 2003. "National review of hurricane evacuation plans and policies: a comparison and contrast of state practices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 257-275, March.
    5. Schneeweiss, Christoph, 2003. "Distributed decision making--a unified approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 237-252, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rachel A. Davidson & Linda K. Nozick & Tricia Wachtendorf & Brian Blanton & Brian Colle & Randall L. Kolar & Sarah DeYoung & Kendra M. Dresback & Wenqi Yi & Kun Yang & Nicholas Leonardo, 2020. "An Integrated Scenario Ensemble‐Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1—Decision Support System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 97-116, January.
    2. Jean Paul Vanderlinden & Juan Baztan & Tracey Coates & Osiel Gonzalez Davila & Francois Hissel & Idrissa Oumar Kane & Phoebe Koundouri & Loraine McFadden & Dennis Parker & Edmund Penning-Rowsell & Luc, 2015. "Nonstructural Approaches to Coastal Risk Mitigations," DEOS Working Papers 1523, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    3. Dimitrina S. Dimitrova & Vladimir K. Kaishev & Shouqi Zhao, 2015. "Modeling Finite‐Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(10), pages 1919-1939, October.
    4. Kun Yang & Rachel A. Davidson & Humberto Vergara & Randall L. Kolar & Kendra M. Dresback & Brian A. Colle & Brian Blanton & Tricia Wachtendorf & Jennifer Trivedi & Linda K. Nozick, 2019. "Incorporating inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 857-878, March.

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