IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge


  • Arkadiusz Wisniowski

    (University of Southampton)

  • Nico Keilman

    (University of Oslo)

  • Jakub Bijak

    (University of Southampton)

  • Solveig Christiansen

    (University of Oslo)

  • Jonathan J. Forster

    (University of Southampton)

  • Peter W.F Smith

    (University of Southampton)

  • James Raymer

    (University of Southampton)


International migration statistics vary considerably from one country to another in terms of measurement, quality and coverage. Furthermore, immigration tend to be captured more accurately than emigration. In this paper, we first describe the need to augment reported flows of international migration with knowledge gained from experts on the measurement of migration statistics, obtained from a multi-stage Delphi survey. Second, we present our methodology for translating this information into prior distributions for input into the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) model, which is designed to estimate migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA), by using recent data collected by Eurostat and other national and international institutions. The IMEM model is capable of providing a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Arkadiusz Wisniowski & Nico Keilman & Jakub Bijak & Solveig Christiansen & Jonathan J. Forster & Peter W.F Smith & James Raymer, 2012. "Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012005, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  • Handle: RePEc:nor:wpaper:2012005

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Stewart, Thomas R., 1999. "Commentary on "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: Issues and analysis" by Rowe and Wright," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 380-381, October.
    2. Ayton, Peter & Ferrell, William R. & Stewart, Thomas R., 1999. "Commentaries on "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis" by Rowe and Wright," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 377-379, October.
    3. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nor:wpaper:2012005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Norface Migration Administrator) or (Thomas Cornelissen). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.