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Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge

  • Arkadiusz Wisniowski

    (University of Southampton)

  • Nico Keilman

    (University of Oslo)

  • Jakub Bijak

    (University of Southampton)

  • Solveig Christiansen

    (University of Oslo)

  • Jonathan J. Forster

    (University of Southampton)

  • Peter W.F Smith

    (University of Southampton)

  • James Raymer

    (University of Southampton)

International migration statistics vary considerably from one country to another in terms of measurement, quality and coverage. Furthermore, immigration tend to be captured more accurately than emigration. In this paper, we first describe the need to augment reported flows of international migration with knowledge gained from experts on the measurement of migration statistics, obtained from a multi-stage Delphi survey. Second, we present our methodology for translating this information into prior distributions for input into the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) model, which is designed to estimate migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA), by using recent data collected by Eurostat and other national and international institutions. The IMEM model is capable of providing a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters.

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File URL: http://www.norface-migration.org/publ_uploads/NDP_05_12.pdf
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Paper provided by Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London in its series Norface Discussion Paper Series with number 2012005.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nor:wpaper:2012005
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  1. Ayton, Peter & Ferrell, William R. & Stewart, Thomas R., 1999. "Commentaries on "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis" by Rowe and Wright," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 377-379, October.
  2. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
  3. Stewart, Thomas R., 1999. "Commentary on "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: Issues and analysis" by Rowe and Wright," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 380-381, October.
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