Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world
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References listed on IDEAS
- Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
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- Violetta Bacon-Gerasymenko & Russell Coff & Rodolphe Durand, 2016. "Taking a Second Look in a Warped Crystal Ball: Explaining the Accuracy of Revised Forecasts," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(8), pages 1292-1319, December.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Taleb, Nassim, 2009. "Living in a world of low levels of predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 840-844, October.
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"Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors,"
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- Vögele, Stefan & Hansen, Patrick & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Prehofer, Sigrid & Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang, 2017. "Building scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 937-946.
- Savio, Nicolas D. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2013. "A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 311-321.
- López, Ana M., 2016. "El papel de la información económica como generador de conocimiento en el proceso de predicción: comparaciones empíricas del crecimiento del PIB regional /The Role of Economic Information as a Generat," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 34, pages 543-572, Agosto.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert, 2017. "Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 314-324.
- Roberts, James P. & Middleton, Andrew, 2014. "Evolving products: From human design to self-organisation via Science Fiction Prototyping," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 15-28.
- Julia P. Prims & Don A. Moore, 2017. "Overconfidence over the lifespan," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(1), pages 29-41, January.
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More about this item
KeywordsForecasting Accuracy Uncertainty Subway uncertainty Coconut uncertainty Black swans Illusion of control Dealing with uncertainty;
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