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People consultation to construct the future: A Delphi application

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  • Landeta, Jon
  • Barrutia, Jon

Abstract

This work presents the Delphi method, in its Policy Delphi variant, as an efficient mechanism for carrying out consultations regarding regulatory actions that affect professional bureaucracies, and also, in the last analysis, for forecasting and constructing their future. The Delphi application presented here incorporates some specific characteristics which are aimed at making the plurality of opinions in the organisation under analysis visible, facilitating reasoned debate, minimising the risk of manipulation by study leaders, and maximising the generalised acceptance of the results by the whole collective. This study was performed on the university community of the Basque Country, prior to the enactment of the Act which was to organise the Basque university system. Its results, which were accepted as being representative of the real dissensus existing in the community, constituted a valuable input for the final drawing up of the Act, and for its acceptance without conflict. This Delphi application cannot be classified within its traditional field of exploratory forecasting, but it can be situated within the normative sphere, geared towards the construction of a desired future.

Suggested Citation

  • Landeta, Jon & Barrutia, Jon, 2011. "People consultation to construct the future: A Delphi application," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 134-151, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:1:p:134-151
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Zepke, Nick, 2009. "Thinking strategically in response to New Zealand's tertiary education strategy: The case of a Wānanga," Journal of Management & Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 110-121, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alyami, Saleh. H. & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan, 2013. "Developing sustainable building assessment scheme for Saudi Arabia: Delphi consultation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 43-54.
    2. Winkler, Jens & Kuklinski, Christian Paul Jian-Wei & Moser, Roger, 2015. "Decision making in emerging markets: The Delphi approach's contribution to coping with uncertainty and equivocality," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 1118-1126.
    3. Engelke, Henning & Mauksch, Stefanie & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2015. "Opportunities for social enterprise in Germany — Evidence from an expert survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 635-646.
    4. repec:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:1:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Wright, George & Rowe, Gene, 2011. "Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Meijering, Jurian V. & Tobi, Hilde, 2016. "The effect of controlled opinion feedback on Delphi features: Mixed messages from a real-world Delphi experiment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 166-173.
    7. Alcon, Francisco & Tapsuwan, Sorada & Martínez-Paz, José M. & Brouwer, Roy & de Miguel, María D., 2014. "Forecasting deficit irrigation adoption using a mixed stakeholder assessment methodology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 183-193.
    8. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    9. Spickermann, Alexander & Zimmermann, Martin & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Surface- and deep-level diversity in panel selection — Exploring diversity effects on response behaviour in foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 105-120.
    10. Aldossary, Naief A. & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan, 2015. "Consensus-based low carbon domestic design framework for sustainable homes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 417-432.
    11. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.
    12. Winkler, Jens & Moser, Roger, 2016. "Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 63-76.
    13. Horrillo, A. & Escribano, M. & Mesias, F.J. & Elghannam, A. & Gaspar, P., 2016. "Is there a future for organic production in high ecological value ecosystems?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 114-125.

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