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Living in a world of low levels of predictability


  • Makridakis, Spyros
  • Taleb, Nassim


This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to accepting such inaccurate predictions, while putting forwards a number of ideas aimed at a complex world where accurate forecasting is impossible and where uncertainty reigns.

Suggested Citation

  • Makridakis, Spyros & Taleb, Nassim, 2009. "Living in a world of low levels of predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 840-844, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:4:p:840-844

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
    2. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
    3. Makridakis, Spyros & Hogarth, Robin M. & Gaba, Anil, 2009. "Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 794-812, October.
    4. Makridakis, Spyros, 1982. "Chronology of the last six recessions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 43-50.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Reznakova & Michal Karas, 2012. "The Effects Of A Change In The Environment On Business Valuation Using The Income Capitalization Approach," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(2), pages 119-137, June.
    2. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, February.
    3. Simone Pace, 2014. "Risk of loss towards an agent based model," DEM Working Papers Series 077, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Miller, Craig & Newell, Barry, 2013. "Framing integrated research to address a dynamically complex issue: The red headed cockchafer challenge," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 13-18.
    5. repec:lrk:eeaart:35_2_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Zanoli, Raffaele & Gambelli, Danilo & Vairo, Daniela, 2012. "Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 41-57.


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