Stock Returns Under Alternative Volatility and Distributional Assumptions: The Case for India
This paper has attempted studying the twin issues of asymmetry/leverage effect and excess kurtosis prevalent in India’s stock returns under alternative volatility specifications as well as conditional distributional assumptions. This study has been carried out using daily-level data, based on India’s premier stock index, BSESENSEX, covering India’s post-liberalisation period from January 1996 to December 2010. Apart from lag returns, three other variables viz., call money rate, nominal exchange rate and daily dummies have been used as explanatory variables for specifying the conditional mean. Three alternative models of volatility representing the phenomenon of ‘leverage effect’ in returns viz., EGARCH, TGARCH and asymmetric PARCH along with standard GARCH have been considered for this study. As regards the assumption on conditional distribution for the innovations, apart from the Gaussian distribution, two alternative conditional distributions viz., standardized Student’s distribution and standardized GED for capturing the leptokurtic property of the return distribution have been considered. Further, comparisons across these models have been done using forecast evaluation criteria suitable for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. The results indicate that the asymmetric PARCH volatility specification performs the best in terms of both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Also, the assumption of normality for the conditional distribution is not quite statistically tenable against the standardized GED and standardized Student’s distribution for all the volatility models considered.
Volume (Year): 5 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: + 90 312 447 51 95
Fax: + 90 312 447 51 95
Web page: http://www.era.org.tr/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Taylor, James W., 2004. "Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 273-286.
- Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995.
"Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
297., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
- Whitney K. Newey & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1997. "Asymptotic Bias for Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimators in Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 587-600, May.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
- G. William Schwert, 1990.
"Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?,"
NBER Working Papers
2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000.
"A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
- Granger, Clive W.J. & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin W., 1998. "A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9bk607p6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
" Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Makridakis, Spyros, 1993. "Accuracy measures: theoretical and practical concerns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 527-529, December.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
- Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
- Tucker, Alan L, 1992. "A Reexamination of Finite- and Infinite-Variance Distributions as Models of Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 73-81, January.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. F. Cosar)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.