IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v26yi3p537-542.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of insider trading on forecasting in a bookmakers' horse betting market

Author

Listed:
  • Schnytzer, Adi
  • Lamers, Martien
  • Makropoulou, Vasiliki

Abstract

This paper uses a new variable, which is based on estimates of insider trading, to forecast the outcomes of horse races. We base our analysis on the work of Schnytzer, Lamers, and Makropoulou (2008), who showed that insider trading in the 1997-1998 Australian racetrack betting market represented between 20% and 30% of all trading in this market. They showed that the presence of insiders leads opening prices to deviate from the true winning probabilities. Under these circumstances, forecasts of race outcomes should take into account an estimate of the extent of insider trading for each horse. We show that the added value of this new variable for profitable betting is sufficient to reduce the losses when only prices are taken into account. Since the only variables taken into account by either Schnytzer et al. (2008) or this paper are price data, this is tantamount to a demonstration that the market is, in practice, weak-form efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Schnytzer, Adi & Lamers, Martien & Makropoulou, Vasiliki, 2010. "The impact of insider trading on forecasting in a bookmakers' horse betting market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 537-542, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:3:p:537-542
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(10)00017-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adi Schnytzer & Martien Lamers & Vasiliki Makropoulou, 2010. "Measuring the Extent of Inside Trading in Horse Betting Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(2), pages 21-41, September.
    2. Schnytzer, Adi & Shilony, Yuval, 1995. "Inside Information in a Betting Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 963-971, July.
    3. Adi Schnytzer & Avichai Snir, 2008. "Herding in Imperfect Betting Markets with Inside Traders," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(2), pages 1-15, September.
    4. Shin, Hyun Song, 1991. "Optimal Betting Odds against Insider Traders," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1179-1185, September.
    5. Shin, Hyun Song, 1993. "Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Market for State-Contingent Claims," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1141-1153, September.
    6. Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Prices Of State Contingent Claims With Insider Traders, And The Favourite-Longshot Bias," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets, chapter 34, pages 343-352 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting with discrete choice models: Evaluating predictions with pseudo-coefficients of determination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 1021-1030.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:3:p:537-542. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.