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The Impact of Insider Trading on Forecasting in a Bookmakers' Horse Betting Market

  • Adi Schnytzer

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Bar Ilan University)

  • Martien Lamers

    ()

    (Ghent University
    Department of Financial Economics, Ghent University)

  • Vasiliki Makropoulou

    ()

    (Utrecht School of Economics, Utrecht University)

This paper uses a new variable based on estimates of insider trading to forecast the outcome of horse races. We base our analysis on Schnytzer, Lamers and Makropoulou (2008) who showed that inside trading in the 1997-1998 Australian racetrack betting market represents somewhere between 20 and 30 percent of all trading in this market. They show that the presence of insiders leads opening prices to deviate from true winning probabilities. Under these circumstances, forecasting of race outcomes should take into account an estimate of the extent of insider trading per horse. We show that the added value of this new variable for profitable betting is sufficient to reduce the losses when only prices are taken into account. Since the only variables taken into account in either Schnytzer, Lamers and Makropoulou (2008) or this paper are price data, this is tantamount to a demonstration that the market is, in practice, weak-form efficient.

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File URL: http://www.biu.ac.il/soc/ec/wp/2011-14.pdf
File Function: Working paper
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Paper provided by Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011-14.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:biu:wpaper:2011-14
Contact details of provider: Postal: Faculty of Social Sciences, Bar Ilan University 52900 Ramat-Gan
Phone: Phone: +972-3-5318345
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Web page: http://www.biu.ac.il/soc/ec
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  1. Shin, Hyun Song, 1991. "Optimal Betting Odds against Insider Traders," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1179-85, September.
  2. Shin, Hyun Song, 1993. "Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Market for State-Contingent Claims," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1141-53, September.
  3. Shin, Hyun Song, 1992. "Prices of State Contingent Claims with Insider Traders, and the Favourite-Longshot Bias," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 426-35, March.
  4. Schnytzer, Adi & Shilony, Yuval, 1995. "Inside Information in a Betting Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 963-71, July.
  5. Adi Schnytzer & Avichai Snir, 2008. "Herding in Imperfect Betting Markets with Inside Traders," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(2), pages 1-15, September.
  6. Adi Schnytzer & Martien Lamers & Vasiliki Makropoulou, 2010. "Measuring the Extent of Inside Trading in Horse Betting Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(2), pages 21-41, September.
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