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The Impact of Insider Trading on Forecasting in a Bookmakers' Horse Betting Market

Author

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  • Adi Schnytzer

    (Department of Economics, Bar Ilan University)

  • Martien Lamers

    (Department of Financial Economics, Ghent University)

  • Vasiliki Makropoulou

    (Utrecht School of Economics, Utrecht University)

Abstract

This paper considers the impact of insider trading on forecasting in a betting market when prices are set by bookmakers. We base our analysis on Schnytzer, Lamers and Makropoulou (2008) who showed that inside trading in the 1997-1998 Australian racetrack betting market represents somewhere between 20 and 30 percent of all trading in this market. They show that the presence of insiders leads opening prices to deviate from true winning probabilities. Under these circumstances, forecasting of race outcomes should take into account an estimate of the extent of insider trading per horse. We show that the added value of a measure of insider trading for profitable betting is sufficient to reduce the losses when only prices are taken into account. Since the only variables taken into account in either Schnytzer, Lamers and Makropoulou (2008) or this paper are price data, this is tantamount to a demonstration that the market is weak-form efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Adi Schnytzer & Martien Lamers & Vasiliki Makropoulou, 2009. "The Impact of Insider Trading on Forecasting in a Bookmakers' Horse Betting Market," Working Papers 2009-11, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:biu:wpaper:2009-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shin, Hyun Song, 1991. "Optimal Betting Odds against Insider Traders," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1179-1185, September.
    2. Shin, Hyun Song, 1993. "Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Market for State-Contingent Claims," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1141-1153, September.
    3. Adi Schnytzer & Martien Lamers & Vasiliki Makropoulou, 2009. "Measuring the Extent of Inside Trading in Horse Betting Markets," Working Papers 2009-10, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    4. Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Prices Of State Contingent Claims With Insider Traders, And The Favourite-Longshot Bias," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Donald B Hausch & Victor SY Lo & William T Ziemba (ed.), Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets, chapter 34, pages 343-352, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Schnytzer, Adi & Shilony, Yuval, 1995. "Inside Information in a Betting Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 963-971, July.
    6. Adi Schnytzer & Avichai Snir, 2008. "Herding in Imperfect Betting Markets with Inside Traders," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(2), pages 1-15, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting with discrete choice models: Evaluating predictions with pseudo-coefficients of determination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 1021-1030.

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