# Elsevier

# International Journal of Forecasting

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**ISSN:**0169-2070

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### 1991, Volume 7, Issue 2

**183-197 Empirical Bayes methods for telecommunications forecasting***by*Greis, Noel P. & Gilstein, C. Zachary**199-208 Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series***by*Franses, Philip Hans**209-230 Automatic forecasting software: A survey and evaluation***by*Tashman, Leonard J. & Leach, Michael L.**231-238 Using interindustry input-output relations as a Bayesian prior in employment forecasting models***by*LeSage, James P. & Magura, Michael**239-240 On confusing lead time demand with h-period-ahead forecasts***by*Chatfield, Christopher & Koehler, Anne B.**241-241 A managerial guide to business forecasting : Dennis Ellis and Jay Nathan, (Graceway Publishing Co., Flushing, NY, 1990), paperback, pp. 162***by*Copulsky, William**242-242 A short history of the future : W. Warren Wager, (The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, 1989), pp. 323***by*Copulsky, William**243-245 Introductory business forecasting : Paul Newbold and Theodore Bos, (South-western, Cincinnati, OH,1990), pp. 497***by*Heitmann, George**245-246 What futurists believe : Joseph F. Coates and Jennifer Jarrett, (Lomond Publication, Inc., Mt. Airy, MD and The World Future Society, Bethesda, MD, 1989)***by*Fisher, Joseph L.**248-249 Econometric modelling of agricultural commodity markets : David Hallam, (Routledge, London, UK, 1990), [UK pound]35.00, ISBN 0-415-00405-5***by*Byers, David**249-249 Non-linear time series : Howell Tong, (Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1990), pp. 564, [UK pound]50.00***by*Chatfield, Chris**251-252 Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model +50% manager : Robert C. Blattberg and Stephen J. Hoch, Management Science 36 (1990) 887-899***by*Fildes, Robert**252-252 A cautionary tale about multiple regression : Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1991) 48-49***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**253-254 Combining forecasts: Operational adjustments to theoretical optimal rules : David C. Schmittlein, Jinho Kim and Donald G. Morrison, Management Science 36 (1990) 1044-1056***by*Fildes, Robert**254-254 Prelaunch forecasting of new automobiles : Glen L. Urban, John R. Hauser and John H. Roberts, Management Science 36 (1990) 401-421***by*Fildes, Robert**252-253 Market and survey forecasts of the three-month treasury bill rate : R.W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein and S. Scott MacDonald, Journal of Business (1991) forthcoming***by*Stekler, H. O.**242-243 Economic modelling in the OECD countries : Homa Motamen, ed., (Chapman and Hall, London, U.K., 1988), pp. 746, [UK pound]89.00***by*Holden, Ken

### 1991, Volume 7, Issue 1

**1-2 Is there a gap between forecasting theory and practice? A personal view***by*DeRoeck, Richard**3-16 Forecasting residential consumption of natural gas using monthly and quarterly time series***by*Liu, Lon-Mu & Lin, Maw-Wen**17-30 Forecasting with vector ARMA and state space methods***by*Aksu, Celal & Narayan, Jack Y.**31-37 Prediction intervals for multiplicative Holt-Winters***by*Chatfield, Chris & Yar, Mohammed**39-45 Forecast sufficiency characteristic: Construction and application***by*Krzysztofowicz, Roman & Long, Dou**47-55 Beta likelihood models of probabilistic forecasts***by*Krzysztofowicz, Roman & Long, Dou**57-63 Alternative methods of combining security analysts' and statistical forecasts of annual corporate earnings***by*Lobo, Gerald J.**65-76 Forecasting the educational participation rate of 16-year olds in England and Wales: A socio-economic approach***by*Whitfield, Keith & Wilson, R. A.**77-104 Microsimulation -- A survey of principles, developments and applications***by*Merz, Joachim**105-106 Forecasting, planning and strategy for the 21st century : Spyros Makridakis, 1990, (Free Press, New York), pp. 293, $29.95***by*Schnaars, Steven P.**106-108 Practical sales forecasting : E.J. Davis, (McGraw-Hill Book Company, London, 1988), pp. x + 291, $13.95***by*Speece, Mark W.**108-108 Business forecasting in a Lotus 1-2-3 environment : Colin Lewis, (Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1989), pp. 98 (software included), [UK pound]19.95***by*Jex, Colin**117-118 The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior : Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Marketing 6 (1989) 183-198***by*Brodie, Roderick J. & Armstrong, J. Scott**118-118 Evaluating forecast performance in an inventory control system : Everette S. Gardner Jr., Management Science 36 (1990) 490-499***by*Fildes, Robert**119-119 Sliding simulation: A new approach to time series forecasting : Spyros Makridakis, Management Science 36 (1990) 505-512***by*Fildes, Robert**118-119 Time series models for count or qualitative observations : A.C. Harvey and C. Fernandes, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 7 (1989) 407-422***by*Winkler, Rober L.**108-109 Envisioning information : Edward R. Tufte, (Graphics Press, Cheshire, CT, 1990), pp. 126, $48.00***by*Rosen, Barry N.

### 1990, Volume 6, Issue 4

**449-451 The role of time series analysis in forecasting: A personal view***by*de Gooijer, Jap G.**453-461 Forecasting the business cycle using survey data***by*Oller, Lars-Erik**463-468 Use of preliminary values in forecasting industrial production***by*Boucelham, Jamel & Terasvirta, Timo**469-477 Comparing forecasts from fixed and variable coefficient models: The case of money demand***by*Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Kennickell, Arthur B. & von zur Muehlen, Peter**479-484 A modification of time series forecasting methods for handling announced price increases***by*Carreno, Jose Juan & Madinaveitia, Jesus**485-495 Time-series decomposition using the sinusoidal model***by*Simmons, L. F.**497-499 "In defense of ARIMA modeling", by D.J. Pack***by*Geurts, Michael D. & Kelly, J. Patrick**501-502 Comments on: "In defense of ARIMA modeling", by M.D. Geurts and J.P. Kelly***by*Pack, David J.**503-508 The use of prior information in forecast combination***by*Diebold, Francis X. & Pauly, Peter**509-519 A forecast evaluation of capital investment in agriculture***by*Conway, Roger K. & Hrubovcak, James & LeBlanc, Michael**521-530 Stochastic methods in population forecasting***by*Alho, Juha M.**531-540 Experience curve models in the electricity supply industry***by*Sharp, John A. & Price, David H. R.**541-547 Parameter instability in learning curve models : Invited comments on papers by Towill and by Sharp and Price***by*Howell, Sydney D.**549-556 An engineering approach to LSE modelling of experience curves in the electricity supply industry***by*Naim, Mohamed M. & Towill, Denis R.**557-558 An inappropriate prediction interval***by*Koehler, Anne B.**559-559 "Confidence intervals for non-stationary forecast errors", by P. Lefrancois***by*Chatfield, Chris**561-561 Comments by C. Chatfield***by*Lefrancois, Pierre**563-564 Forecasting methods for management : Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright, Fifth Edition (Wiley, New York, 1989), pp. 470, $52.95 (hard), $27.15, [UK pound]15.95 (soft)***by*Stekler, H. O.**564-565 Introductory business forecasting : Paul Newbold and Theodore Bos, (South-Western Publishing, Cincinnati, OH, 1990), pp. 497, $31.00***by*Remus, William**565-566 Applied time series analysis for business and economic forecasting : Sufi M. Nazem, (Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York and Basel, 1988), pp. 431, $89.75***by*Loungani, Prakash**566-568 System-theoretic methods in economic modelling I : Stefan Mittnik, ed., (Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1989), pp. 184, $39.50***by*Lesage, James P.**568-569 The analysis of time series: An introduction : Christopher Chatfield, 4th ed. (Chapman & Hall, London, U.K., 1989), pp. 241, $25.00***by*Talwar, Prem P.**569-570 Business forecasting : J. Holten Wilson and Barry Keating, (Richard D. Irwin, Homewood, IL), 1990, pp. 386, $45.95***by*Rozeff, Michael S.**570-571 Future stuff : Malcolm Abrams and Harriet Bernstein, (Penguin Books, New York, 1989), pp. 300, $8.95***by*Schnaars, Steven P.**571-572 Parameter variability in the single factor market model: An empirical comparison of tests and estimation procedures using data from the Helsinki stock exchange : Johan Knif, (The Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters, Helsinki, 1989), pp. 167, ISBN 951-653-196-2, ISSN 0355-256X***by*Taylor, Stephen J.**583-584 Effect of price on the demand for durables: Modelling, estimation and findings : D.C. Jain and R.C. Rao, Journals of Business and Economics Statistics 8, no. 2 (1990) 163-170***by*Bottomley, Paul**584-585 A meta-analysis of applications of diffusion models : F. Sultan, J.U. Farley and D.R. Lehmann, Journal of marketing research 27 (1990) 70-77***by*Bottomley Paul**585-586 To be convincing or to be right: A question of preciseness : K.J. Gilhooly, M.T.G. Keane, R.H. Logie and G. Erdos (eds.), Lines of Thinking (Wiley, Chichester, 1990) 299-313***by*Teigen Karl Halvor**586-586 The price elasticity of selective demand: A meta-analysis of econometric models of sales : Gerald J. Tellis, Journal of marketing research 25 (1988) 331-341***by*Fildes Robert

### 1990, Volume 6, Issue 3

**283-284 Macroeconomic forecasting***by*Henry, S. G. B. & Holden, K.**285-286 Introduction***by*Henry, S. G. B. & Holden, K.**287-299 The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy***by*McNees, Stephen K.**301-309 The Warwick ESRC macroeconomic modelling bureau: An assessment***by*Smith, Ron**311-316 Product differentiation in the economic forecasting industry***by*Batchelor, Roy A. & Dua, Pami**317-326 Mode predictors in nonlinear systems with identities***by*Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo**327-336 A survey of seasonality in UK macroeconomic variables***by*Osborn, Denise R.**337-348 Macroeconomic forecasting experience with balanced state space models***by*Mittnik, Stefan**349-362 BVAR forecasts for the G-7***by*Artis, M. J. & Zhang, W.**363-378 Assessing the forecasting accuracy of monthly vector autoregressive models : The case of five OECD countries***by*Funke, Michael**379-392 The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy : Demand, output and prices***by*Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M.**393-400 Forecasting the developing world : An accuracy analysis of the IMF's forecasts***by*Arora, Harjit K. & Smyth, David J.**401-405 Forecasting government policy : An example of the importance of time inconsistency***by*Westaway, Peter & Wren-Lewis, Simon**407-419 By how much would exchange rate stabilisation improve macroeconomic performance? : An exercise in forecasting alternative histories for the industrial economies***by*Hughes Hallett, A. J.**421-440 P* type models: Evaluation and forecasts***by*Pecchenino, R. A. & Rasche, Robert H.**441-442 Investment and factor demand : Patrick Artus and Pierre-Alain Muet, Contributions to Economic Analysis, Vol. 193 (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1990) pp. 308, Dfl 175.00 ($69.50)***by*Henry, S. G. B.**442-443 Challenges for macroeconomic modelling : W. Driehuis, M.M.G. Fase and H. den Hartog, eds., Contributions to Economic Analysis, Vol. 178 (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1988) pp. 487, Dfl 185.00 ($97.25)***by*Hall, S. G.

### 1990, Volume 6, Issue 2

**149-162 Judgmental forecasts in a competitive environment: Rational vs. adaptive expectations***by*Glazer, Rashi & Steckel, Joel H. & Winer, Russell S.**163-174 A comparative study of market share models using disaggregate data***by*Kumar, V. & Heath, Timothy B.**175-186 A composite model for deterministic and stochastic trends***by*Kang, Heejoon**187-198 Structural time series models in inventory control***by*Harvey, Andrew & Snyder, Ralph D.**199-209 Parameter space of the Holt-winters' model***by*Archibald, Blyth C.**211-218 In defense of ARIMA modeling***by*Pack, David J.**219-227 An MSE statistic for comparing forecast accuracy across series***by*Thompson, Patrick A.**229-239 Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressions***by*Masarotto, Guido**241-251 A log-linear approach to disaggregated micro-level population forecasts***by*Ketkar, Kusum W.**253-254 Forecasting: A new agenda : Harold A. Linstone, senior ed., 1989, a special twentieth anniversary edition, technological forecasting social change, 36, nos. 1-2, Aug***by*Schnaars, Steven P.**255-256 Optimal control, expectations and uncertainty : Sean Holly and Andrew Hughes Hallett, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1989) pp. 244***by*Lahiri, Kajal**258-259 Quantitative forecasting methods : Nicholas R. Farnum and La Verne W. Stanton, PWS-KENT, Boston, MA, 1989) pp. 573***by*Sanders, Nada R.**275-276 An exercise in computing the variance of the forecast error***by*Kennedy, Peter

### 1990, Volume 6, Issue 1

**1-2 A look at the year and decade ahead***by*Schnaars, Steven P.**3-10 Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts***by*Bathcelor, Roy & Dua, Pami**11-23 An examination of vector autoregressive forecasts for the U.K. economy***by*Holden, K. & Broomhead, A.**25-38 Forecasting learning curves***by*Towill, Denis R.**39-52 Predicting doctorate production in the U.S.A.: Some lessons for long-range forecasters***by*Pollack-Johnson, Bruce & Dean, Burton V. & Reisman, Arnold & Michenzi, Alfred R.**53-64 Forecasting demand for special telephone services: A case study***by*Grambsch, Patricia & Stahel, Werner A.**65-74 Forecasting competitive entry: The case of bypass adoption in telecommunications***by*Weisman, Dennis L. & Kridel, Donald J.**75-88 Forecasting competitors' actions: An evaluation of alternative ways of analyzing business competition***by*Singer, Alan E. & Brodie, Roderick J.**89-102 Political risk forecasting by Canadian firms***by*Rich, Gillian & Mahmoud, Essam**103-113 Forecasting monthly cotton price: Structural and time series approaches***by*Chen, Dean T. & Bessler, David A.**115-125 Forecasting using partially known demands***by*Kekre, Sunder & Morton, Thomas E. & Smunt, Timothy L.**127-137 Prediction intervals for the Holt-Winters forecasting procedure***by*Yar, Mohammed & Chatfield, Chris**139-140 Megamistakes: Forecasting and the myth of technological change : Steven Schnaars, 1989, (The Free Press, New York), 202 pp., US$19.95***by*Makridakis, Spyros**140-141 Macro-economic modelling : S.G. Hall and S.G.B. Henry, [1988] 1989, Contributions to economic analysis, vol. 172 (North-Holland, Amsterdam, reprint), 416 pp., ISBN 0-444-7042***by*Osborn, Denise R.**141-142 Basic techniques of forecasting : D. Johnson and M. King, 1988, (Butterworth, Guildford, U.K.), 144 pp., [UK pound]13.95***by*Sweeney, William B.**142-144 The limits to rational expectations: M. Hashem Pesaran, 1987, (Basic Blackwell, Oxford, U.K.), [UK pound]32.50 (hardbound)***by*Matthews, K. G. P.

### 1989, Volume 5, Issue 4

**467-468 Editorial: Reflections on forecasting in the 1980's***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**469-484 Beyond accuracy***by*Ascher, William**485-489 Comments in response to Beyond accuracy, by William Ascher***by*Robinson, John B.**491-500 A comparison of quarterly earnings per share forecasts using James-Stein and unconditional least squares parameter estimators***by*Landsman, Wayne R. & Damodaran, Aswath**501-513 Model selection and estimation for technological growth curves***by*Young, Peg & Ord, J. Keith**515-522 Legal control of drunken driving: A time series study of California data***by*Ray, Subhash C.**523-527 On exponential smoothing and the assumption of deterministic trend plus white noise data-generating models***by*Newbold, Paul & Bos, Ted**529-535 The utilization of the Wilcoxon test to compare forecasting methods: A note***by*Flores, Benito E.**537-545 Rates of convergence to steady state for the linear growth version of a dynamic linear model (DLM)***by*Ray, W. D.**547-552 Forecasting with combined seasonal indices***by*Withycombe, Richard**553-557 Confidence intervals for non-stationary forecast errors : Some empirical results for the series in the M-competition***by*Lefrancois, Pierre**559-583 Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography***by*Clemen, Robert T.**585-588 Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**589-592 Forecast combination and encompassing: Reconciling two divergent literatures***by*Diebold, Francis X.**593-597 On combining diagnostic forecasts: Thoughts and some evidence***by*Hogarth, Robin M.**599-600 Combining forecasts: Some managerial issues***by*Mahmoud, Essam**601-603 Why combining works?***by*Makridakis, Spyros**605-609 Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues***by*Winkler, Robert L.**611-612 The evolution of technology : George Basalla, (Cambridge University Press, New York, 1988) pp. 248, US $10.95***by*Schnaars, Steven P.**612-612 The computation and modelling of economic equilibria : A. Talman and G. van der Laan, eds., (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1987) pp. 229, Dfl 120.00***by*Holden, Ken**614-615 Information horizons : Miles, Rush, Turner and Bessant, Edward Elgar, 1988***by*Holroyd, P.**616-617 Judgmental forecasting : George Wright and Peter Ayton, eds., (Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1987), pp. 293, [UK pound]29.95***by*Andreassen, Paul B.**617-619 Macroeconomic uncertainty: International risks and opportunities for the corporation : L. Oxelheim and C. Wihlborg, (Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1987) pp. 272, [UK pound]29.50/$58.45 (hardcover) and [UK pound]12.95/$29.95 (paperback)***by*Cataquet, Harold**612-614 Advances in econometrics : Truman F. Bewley, ed.,Vol. I (Cambridge University Press, 1988), [UK pound]27.50 ($34.50)***by*Henry, S. G. B.

### 1989, Volume 5, Issue 3

**303-304 Special issue on public sector forecasting***by*Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L.**307-319 Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues***by*Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle**321-331 An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments***by*Cassidy, Glenn & Kamlet, Mark S. & Nagin, Daniel S.**333-345 Public sector forecasting m the third world***by*Schroeder, Larry & Wasylenko, Michael**347-360 Measuring the cyclical sensitivity of federal receipts and expenditures: Simplified estimation procedures***by*Holloway, Thomas M.**361-371 The politics of state revenue forecasting in Ohio, 1984-1987: A case study and research implications***by*Shkurti, William J. & Winefordner, Darrell**373-380 A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax***by*Fullerton, Thomas Jr.**381-391 Forecasting unemployment insurance trust funds: The case of Tennessee***by*Mandy, David M.**393-397 The contribution of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting the effects of oil prices on private consumption***by*Praet, Peter & Vuchelen, Jef**399-408 The sensitivity of VAR forecasts to alternative lag structures***by*Hafer, R. W. & Sheehan, Richard G.**409-416 Forecasts and actuals: The trade-off between timeliness and accuracy***by*McNees, Stephen K.**417-426 Econometric GNP forecasts: Incremental information relative to naive extrapolation***by*Clemen, Robert T. & Guerard, John Jr.**427-427 The sources of innovation : Eric Von Hippel, (Oxford University Press, New York, 1988), $27.00, pp.218***by*Schnaars, Steven P.**428-429 Non-linear and non-stationary time series analysis : M.B. Priestley, (Academic Press, London, 1988), [UK pound]25.00, pp. 237***by*Chatfield, Chris**429-430 Employment forecasting: The employment problem in industrialized countries : M.J.D. Hopkins, ed., (Pinter Publishers, New York and London, 1988)***by*Holden, Ken**430-431 Macroeconomic medium term models in the Nordic countries : O. Bjerkholt and J. Rosted ed., (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1987) [UK pound]45.05, pp. 324***by*Meade, Nigel**431-432 Forecasting in the social and natural sciences : K.C. Land and S.H. Schneider, eds.,(1987), $78.00, pp. 381***by*Luchino, Anatoly I.**432-434 Canadian economic forecasting in a world where all's unsure : Mervin Daub, (Kingston, Ont., Canada: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1987), $32.50, pp. 236***by*Siklos, Pierre L.**434-435 Trade friction and economic policy: Problems and prospects for Japan and the United States : R. Sato and P. Wachtel, eds., (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 1987)***by*Rastogi, Anupam B.**437-462 Microcomputer software of interest to forecasters in comparative review***by*Rycroft, Robert S.**427-428 Managing new product innovations : William E. Souder, (Lexington Books, Lexington, Massachusetts, 1987), $29.95, pp. 251***by*Schnaars, Steven P.

### 1989, Volume 5, Issue 2

**155-157 The future of the forecasting profession***by*Dagum, Estela Bee**159-169 Models of human behaviour and confidence in judgement: A review***by*O'Connor, Marcus**171-178 An examination of group process in judgmental forecasting***by*Sniezek, Janet A.**179-185 Graphical adjustment of statistical forecasts***by*Willemain, Thomas R.**187-194 Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings***by*Dakin, Stephen & Armstrong, J. Scott**195-208 Modeling and forecasting hospital patient movements: Univariate and multiple time series approaches***by*Lin, Winston T.**209-215 Forecasting using automatic identification procedures: A comparative analysis***by*Texter, Pamela A. & Ord, J. Keith**217-230 Partially adaptive estimation of ARMA time series models***by*McDonald, James B.**231-240 The effect of additive outliers on the forecasts from ARIMA models***by*Ledolter, Johannes**241-247 National indicator series as quantitative predictors of small region monthly employment levels***by*Weller, Barry R.**249-257 Labor supply over the life cycle: The long-term forecasting problem***by*Owen, John D.**259-262 Forecasting in business schools: A follow-up survey***by*Hanke, John**263-278 Software for econometric research with a personal computer***by*Van Nes, Floor & Ten Cate, Arie**279-280 100 predictions for the baby boom: The next 50 years : Cheryl Russell, (Plenum Press, New York, 1987) pp. 250, $17.95***by*Schnaars, Steven P.**280-281 Forward thinking: The pragmatist's guide to today's business trends : Robert D. Gilbreath, (McGraw-Hill, New York, 1987) pp. 184 including index, $19.95***by*Tashman, Leonard**281-282 Market structure and technological change : William L. Baldwin and John T. Scott, (Harwood Academic Publishers, Chur, New York and Switzerland, 1987) pp. 170, $?***by*Ord, Keith**282-283 Time series forecasting, unified concepts and computer implementation : Bruce L. Bowerman and Richard T. O'Connell, 2nd ed. (Duxbury Press, Boston, 1987) pp. 540***by*Mahmoud, Essam**283-285 Business cycles and forecasting : Lloyd M. Valentine, 7th ed. (South-Western Publishing Company, Cincinnati, Ohio, 1987) pp. 572, $36.75***by*Wrightsman, Dwayne**285-286 Business forecasting methods : Jeffrey Jarrett: (Basil Blackwell Ltd., Oxford, U.K., 1987) pp. 346, $15.00***by*Chatfield, Chris**286-288 New directions in research on decision making : Berndt Brehmer, Helmut Jungermann, Peter Laurens and Guje Sevon, eds. (Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam, 1986) pp. 443, $105***by*Goitein, Bernard J.**288-289 Judgment and decision making: An interdisciplinary reader : Hal R. Arkes and Kenneth R. Hammond, eds., (Cambridge University Press, New York, 1986) pp. 818, $22.95 paper $62.50 hardbound***by*Willemain, Thomas R.**289-290 Econometrics and structural change : Lyle D. Broemeling and Hiroki Tsurumi, (Marcel Dekker, New York, 1987) pp. 266, $59.75***by*Stekler, H. O.**290-291 Market-based demand forecasting for hospital inpatient services : James A. Rice and George H. Creel II, (American Hospital Publishing, Inc., Chicago, 1985) pp. 124***by*Sumrall, Delia A.**293-294 Journal of forecasting 7 : Robert F. Engle, Scott J. Brown and Gary Stern, A comparison of adaptive structural forecasting methods for electricity sales, (1988) 149-172***by*Fildes, Robert**294-294 Journal of the American Statistical Association : William S. Cleveland, Marylyn E. McGill and Robert McGill, The shape parameter for a two variable graph 83 (1988) 289-300***by*Fildes, Robert**295-295 Why the 1936 literary digest poll failed : Peverill Squire, Public Opinion Quarterly 52 (1988) 125-133***by*ScottArmstrong J.**294-295 Journal of the American Statistical Association : Stanley K. Smith, Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for country population projections (with discussion), 82 (1987) 991-1012***by*Fildes Robert

### 1989, Volume 5, Issue 1

**1-1 The important forecasting problems that we are not researching***by*Fildes, Robert**3-5 The impact of the forecasting capacity of one science on that of other sciences***by*Tinbergen, Jan**7-19 Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods***by*Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F.**21-27 Intervention analysis using control series and exogenous variables in a transfer function model: A case study***by*Krishnamurthi, Lakshman & Narayan, Jack & Raj, S. P.**29-36 Diffusion indexes and a statistical test for predicting turning points in business cycles***by*Chaffin, Wilkie W. & Talley, Wayne K.**37-47 Incorporating regional wage relations in local forecasting models with a Bayesian prior***by*Lesage, James P.**49-58 The implications of myopic policy-making for macroeconomic performance***by*Chami, Saade N. & Butterfield, David W.**59-68 A mathematical programming model for market share prediction***by*Oral, Muhittin & Kettani, Ossama**69-82 An analogical approach to the long term forecasting of major new product sales***by*Easingwood, Christopher J.**83-98 Multivariate exponential smoothing: Method and practice***by*Pfeffermann, D. & Allon, J.**99-110 Allowing for asymmetry in forecast errors : Results from a Monte-Carlo study***by*Leffrancois, Pierre**111-116 A note on a comparison of exponential smoothing methods for forecasting seasonal series***by*Bartolomei, Sonia M. & Sweet, Arnold L.**117-125 Judgemental probability forecasts for personal and impersonal events***by*Wright, George & Ayton, Peter**127-131 Improving a group forecast by removing the conservative bias in its components***by*Spiro, Peter S.**133-135 The politics of energy forecasting: A comparative study of energy forecasting in western Europe and north America : (Oxford University Press, New York, 1987) $67.00, [UK pound]32.50, pp.314***by*Jones, Randall Jr.**135-137 Judgment and choice: The psychology of decision : Robin M. Hogarth, Second edition (Wiley, New York, 1987) $24.95, [UK pound]17.50, pp. 311***by*Goitein, Bernard J.**137-138 Forecasting economic time series : C.W.J. Granger and Paul Newbold, Second edition (Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York, 1986) hard cover $49.50/paperback $24.95, [UK pound]37.50 pp. 337***by*Koehler, Anne B.**138-138 A managerial guide to judgmental forecasting : C.L. Jain, ed, (Graceway Publishing, New York, 1987) $17.50, pp. 101***by*Wright, George**141-142 Models of the UK economy: A fourth review by the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau : K.F. Wallis, ed, P.G. Fisher, J.A. Longbottom, D.S. Turner and J.D. Whitley, (Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K., 1987) [UK pound]22.50/$36.00, pp. 152***by*Henry, SGB