## Content

### March 1995, Volume 11, Issue 1

**113-131 SEARCH (Scenario evaluation and analysis through repeated cross impact handling): a new method for scenario analysis with an application to the Videotel service in Italy***by*Sapio, Bartolomeo**133-145 Screening probability forecasts: contrasts between choosing and combining***by*Clemen, Robert T. & Murphy, Allan H. & Winkler, Robert L.**147-157 Comparing probability forecasts derived from theoretical distributions***by*Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J.**159-174 Road closure to mitigate avalanche danger: a case study for Little Cottonwood Canyon***by*Blattenberger, Gail & Fowles, Richard**175-187 Software review***by*Weller, Barry R.**189-191 Handbook of statistics, volume 11, econometrics : G.S. Maddala, C.R. Rao and H.D. Vinod, eds., 1993, (North Holland, Amsterdam), 800 pp., US$180.00 Df340.00, ISBN 0-444-89577-9***by*Gill, Len**191-192 Forecasting financial and economic cycles : Michael P. Niemira and Philip A Klein, 1994, (John Wiley and Sons Inc, New York), 500 pp. [UK pound]39.95, ISBN 0471845442***by*Mullineux, Andy W.**192-193 Business forecasting and planning : Peter Shearer, 1994, (Prentice Hall, Hemel Hempstead, UK), 183 pp., paperback, [UK pound]16.95, ISBN 0-13-094962-0***by*Raeside, Robert**195-196 Oliver Duncan Anderson: 1940-1995***by*De Gooijer, Jan G.

### December 1994, Volume 10, Issue 4

**491-494 A world-wide information system for forecasters***by*Collopy, Fred**495-506 Judgmental decomposition: when does it work?***by*MacGregor, Donald G. & Armstrong, J. Scott**507-514 Forecasting costs incurred from unit differencing fractionally integrated processes***by*Smith, Jeremy & Yadav, Sanjay**515-527 Restricted forecasts using exponential smoothing techniques***by*Rosas, A. Lorena & Guerrero, Victor M.**529-538 Forecasting intermittent demand in manufacturing: a comparative evaluation of Croston's method***by*Willemain, Thomas R. & Smart, Charles N. & Shockor, Joseph H. & DeSautels, Philip A.**539-547 Forecasting in least absolute value regression with autocorrelated errors: a small-sample study***by*Dielman, Terry E. & Rose, Elizabeth L.**549-555 Prediction with a linear regression model and errors in a regressor***by*Jonsson, Bo**557-571 Forecasts for the Australian economy using the MONASH model***by*Adams, Philip D. & Dixon, Peter B. & McDonald, Daina & Meagher, G. A. & Parmenter, Brian R.**573-581 Adventures with ARIMA software***by*Newbold, Paul & Agiakloglou, Christos & Miller, John**583-596 Electronics industry model: a report on two decades of implementation***by*Webb, G. Kent**597-599 Economic forecasting in agriculture: Comment***by*Chen, Dean T.**601-602 Economic forecasting in agriculture: Reply***by*Alien, P. Geoffrey**609-609 Introduction***by*Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman**643-645 Marketing : J. Eliashberg and G.L. Lilien, eds., 1993, (North-Holland, Amsterdam, The Netherlands), 920 pp., hardback $165.00/Dfl.310.00, ISBN 0-444-88957-4***by*Mercer, Alan**645-646 The rise and fall of strategic planning : Henry Mintzberg, 1994, (Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, USA), 458 pp., [UK pound]19.95 ISBN 0137818246***by*Lawrence, Michael**647-647 Marketing letters : Barry L., Bayus, (1992), Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time? 3 215-226***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**647-649 Omega 21: G.L. Riddington, (1993), Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance, 573-583***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**649-649 Journal of Business and Economic Statistics: Rick L. Andrews, 1994, Forecasting performance of structural time series models, 12, 129-133***by*Fildes, Robert**650-650 Applied Statistics: L.S.-Y. Wu, J.R.M. Hosking and N. Ravishankar, 1993, Reallocation outliers in time series, 42, 301-313***by*Fildes, Robert

### November 1994, Volume 10, Issue 3

**387-403 What forecasts (seem to) mean***by*Fischhoff, Baruch**405-417 Using economic indicators to reduce risk in stock market investments***by*Moore, Geoffrey H. & Boehm, Ernst A. & Banerji, Anirvan**419-433 The performance of alternative VAR models in forecasting exchange rates***by*Liu, Te-Ru & Gerlow, Mary E. & Irwin, Scott H.**435-443 The rationality of the OECD foreign-balance forecasts for the USA***by*Antzoulatos, Angelos A.**445-453 Recursive estimation as an aid to exploratory data analysis: an application to market share models***by*Jex, Colin F.**455-460 Late forecasts and early revisions of United States GNP***by*Brodsky, Noel & Newbold, Paul**463-463 Elements of multivariate time series : Gregory C. Reinsel, 1993, Springer Series in Statistics, (Springer-Verlag, New York), 263 pp. US 49.00. ISBN 0-387-94063-4***by*Ord, J. Keith**463-466 Time series prediction: Forecasting the future and understanding the past : Andreas S. Weigend and Neil A. Gershenfeld, eds., 1993, (Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, MA, USA), 643 pp., paperback $49.50, ISBN 0-201-62***by*Makridakis, Spyros**466-469 Modelling reality and personal modelling : Richard Flavell, (ed.), 1993, Contributions to Management Science, (Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg), 407 pp., paperback, DM120, ISBN 3-7908-0682-X***by*Adcock, Chris**471-472 Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results : Nada Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, 1994, interfaces, 24, 92-100***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**473-474 An analysis of the accuracy ot "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election : Richard R. Lau, 1994, Public opinion quarterly, 58, 2-20***by*Scott Armstrong, J.**474-475 Forecasting final cost and budget of construction projects: Paul Teicholz, Journal of computing in civil engineering, 7 (1993), 511-529***by*Collopy, Fred**475-475 Dating turning points in the business cycle: Michael D. Boldin, Journal of business, 67, 97-131***by*Stekler, H. O.

### September 1994, Volume 10, Issue 2

**181-189 Forecasting market response***by*Parsons, Leonard J. & Schultz, Randall L.**191-207 A nearest neighbor model for forecasting market response***by*Mulhern, Francis J. & Caprara, Robert J.**209-233 Bayesian forecasts in markets with overlapping structures***by*Queen, Catriona M. & Smith, Jim Q. & James, David M.**235-244 Comparing the predictive performance of a neural network model with some traditional market response models***by*Dasgupta, Chanda Ghose & Dispensa, Gary S. & Ghose, Sanjoy**245-261 A comparison and an exploration of the forecasting accuracy of a loglinear model at different levels of aggregation***by*Foekens, Eijte W. & Leeflang, Peter S. H. & Wittink, Dick R.**263-276 Forecasting market shares with disaggregate or pooled data: a comparison of attraction models***by*Chen, Youhua & Kanetkar, Vinay & Weiss, Doyle L.**277-285 Conditions when market share models are useful for forecasting: further empirical results***by*Brodie, Roderick J. & Bonfrer, Andre**287-294 Comparing naive with econometric market share models when competitors' actions are forecast***by*Danaher, Peter J.**295-312 Forecasting performance of market share models: an assessment, additional insights, and guidelines***by*Kumar, V.**313-326 Market expansion, cannibalization, and international airline pricing strategy***by*Carpenter, Gregory S. & Hanssens, Dominique M.**327-337 Predicting advertising expenditures using intention surveys***by*Jan Alsem, Karel & Leeflang, Peter S. H.**339-352 Strategic marketing forecasting, market segment selection and firm performance***by*Capon, Noel & Palij, Peter**353-380 Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review***by*Parker, Philip M.**381-382 Elements of multivariate time series analysis : Gregory C. Reinsel, 1993, (Springer-Verlag, New York), xiv + 263 pp., DM 88 hardback, ISBN 0-387-94063-4***by*Chatfield, Chris**382-385 Leading economic indicators: New approaches and forecasting record : Review of Lahiri K. and G. Moore (eds.), 1991, (Cambridge University press, Cambridge)***by*Nazmi, Nader**385-386 Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting : James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, (eds.), 1994, National Bureau of Economic Research, studies in business cycles, vol. 28, (University of Chicago pres***by*Stekler, H. O.

### June 1994, Volume 10, Issue 1

**1-4 Editorial: Research prospective on neural network forecasting***by*Gorr, Wilpen L.**5-15 Artificial neural network models for forecasting and decision making***by*Hill, Tim & Marquez, Leorey & O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William**17-34 Comparative study of artificial neural network and statistical models for predicting student grade point averages***by*Gorr, Wilpen L. & Nagin, Daniel & Szczypula, Janusz**35-41 Review of '4thought'***by*Harvey, Andrew & Toulson, Sabine**43-46 Comments on 'neural networks: Forecasting breakthrough or passing fad' by C. Chatfield***by*Refenes, A. N.**47-57 The combination of forecasts using changing weights***by*Deutsch, Melinda & Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo**59-64 The approximation of the one-step ahead forecast error covariance for vector ARMA models***by*Hung, Ken & Alt, Frank B.**65-80 Evaluating forecasting models of farmland prices***by*Tegene, Abebayehu & Kuchler, Fred**81-135 Economic forecasting in agriculture***by*Allen, P. Geoffrey**137-138 Economic forecasting in agriculture: Discussion***by*Bessler, David A.**139-142 The agricultural commodity market forecasting game***by*Freebairn, John**143-145 Economic forecasting in agriculture: Comment***by*Tomek, William G.**147-149 The fertile field of meta-analysis: Cumulative progress in agricultural forecasting***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**151-159 The past and the future of forecasting research***by*Dawes, Robyn & Fildes, Robert & Lawrence, Michael & Ord, Keith**161-163 Time series prediction: Forecasting the future and understanding the past : Neil A. Gershenfeld and Andreas S. Weigend, 1994, 'The future of time series', in: A.S. Weigend and N.A. Gershenfeld, eds., (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA), 1-70***by*Chatfield, Chris & Weigend, Andreas S.**163-164 Journal of econometrics : Chung-ki Min and Arnold Zellner, 1993, "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates"***by*Fildes, Robert**165-166 The econometric modelling of financial time series : Terence C. Mills, 1993, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 247 pp., hardback. [UK pound]35.00, ISBN 0-521-41048-7***by*Meade, Nigel**166-166 ARMA model identification : Byoung Choi, 1992, (Springer-Verlag Berlin), 200 pp., DM 81.00, ISBN 3-540-97795-3***by*Ray, W. D.**166-167 Inflation and disinflation: The Israeli experiment : Leonardo Leiderman, 1993, (Chicago University Press, Chicago, IL). 348 pp., [UK pound]39.25, US $56.25***by*Matthews, Kent**168-169 Forecasting the health of elderly populations : Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, Richard M. Suzman (editors), 1993, (Springer-Verlag, New York), 371 pp., $59.00, ISBN 0-387-97953-0***by*Bailey, R. Clifton**169-171 Modelling nonlinear economic relationships : C.W.J. Granger and T. Terasvirta, 1993, (Oxford University Press, New York,) 187 pp., hardback $30, ISBN 0-19-877319-6; paperback $14.95, ISBN 0-19-877320-X***by*Oller, Lars-Erik**171-172 Developments in time series analysis : T. Subba Rao, ed., 1993, (Chapman & Hall, London, UK), 433 pp., hardback [UK pound]49.95, ISBN 0-412-49260-1***by*Chatfield, Chris

### December 1993, Volume 9, Issue 4

**437-455 Dynamic structural analysis and forecasting of residential electricity consumption***by*Harris, John L. & Liu, Lon-Mu**457-465 The demand for gasoline: a two stage approach***by*Elkhafif, M. A. & Kubursi, A. A.**467-476 Periodic integration in quarterly UK macroeconomic variables***by*Hans Franses, Philip & Romijn, Gerbert**477-485 Combining historical and preliminary information to obtain timely time series data***by*Guerrero, Victor M.**487-508 Rounding errors in autoregressive processes***by*Stam, Antonie & Cogger, Kenneth O.**509-515 Seasonal exponential smoothing with damped trends : An application for production planning***by*Miller, Tan & Liberatore, Matthew**517-526 Using group seasonal indices in multi-item short-term forecasting***by*Bunn, Derek W. & Vassilopoulos, A. I.**527-529 Accuracy measures: theoretical and practical concerns***by*Makridakis, Spyros**531-575 Microcomputer software of interest to forecasters in comparative review: An update***by*Rycroft, Robert S.**577-578 Introduction to multiple time series : H. Lutkepohl, 1991, (Springer, New York), 552 pp., paperback US$59.00, ISBN 0-387-53194-7***by*Karlsson, Sune**578-579 Konjunkturprognoser och konjunkturpolitikk--Ekonomiska radets arsbok 1992 (Business cycle forecasting and stabilization policies--Economic council yearbook 1992 : (Allmanna Forlaget, Stockholm, 1993), pp. 116, ISBN 91-3812586-X, ISSN 1100-3413***by*Cappelen, A.**579-580 Market research using forecasting in business : Peter Clifton, Hai Nguyen and Susan Nutt, 1991, (Butterworth and Heinemann, Stoneham, MA), 294 pp., paperback, US$29.95, ISBN 0-7506-0153-1***by*Lawrence, Kenneth D.**580-582 Modelling seasonality : Svend Hylleberg, Ed., (Oxford University Press, New York), 476 pp., US$75.00 hard cover (ISBN 0-19-877317-X), US$35.00 paperback (ISBN 0-19-8773188)***by*Rose, Elizabeth**582-583 Time series models, second edition : Andrew C. Harvey, 1993, (Harvester-Wheatsheaf, New York) xviii + 308 pp., [UK pound]14.99 (paperback), ISBN 0-7450-1200-0***by*Ray, W. D.**583-583 Total contingency planning for disasters : Kenneth N. Myers, 1993, (Wiley, New York) xvi + 270 pp., [UK pound]45.50, ISBN 0-471-574418-X***by*Ray, W. D.**585-586 Management science : George Duncan, Wilpen Gorr and Janusz Szczypula, 1993, "Bayesian forecasting for seemingly unrelated time series: an application to local government forecasting"39, 275-293***by*Fildes, Robert**586-587 Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (B) : Gary K. Grunwald, Adrian E. Raftery and Peter Guttorp, 1993, "Time series of continuous proportions", 55, 103-116***by*Fildes, Robert

### November 1993, Volume 9, Issue 3

**295-320 Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research***by*Brown, Lawrence D.**321-323 Commentary on: Lawrence D. Brown "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"***by*O'Hanlon, J.**325-330 Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research', by L. Brown***by*Thomas, Jacob K.**331-335 Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown***by*Brown, Philip**337-342 Comments on 'earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown***by*Zmijewski, Mark E.**343-344 Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"***by*Brown, Lawrence D.**345-353 Accuracy improvements from a consensus of updated individual analyst earnings forecasts***by*Stickel, Scott E.**355-371 Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return***by*De Bondt, Werner P. M.**373-386 Forecasting the return and risk on a portfolio of assets***by*Meade, Nigel**387-397 Economic evaluation of commodity price forecasting models***by*Gerlow, Mary E. & Irwin, Scott H. & Liu, Te-Ru**399-405 Forecasting the number of competing products in high-technology markets***by*Bridges, Eileen & Ensor, Katherine B. & Norton, John A.**407-421 Developing a Bayesian vector autoregression forecasting model***by*Spencer, David E.**423-428 Software review***by*Tashman, Leonardo J. & Brody, Michael E.**429-430 Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison : R. Nada Sanders, Omega, 20 (1992) 353-364***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**430-430 Calculating interval forecasts : C. Chatfield, Journal of business and economic statistics, 11 (1993), 121-144 (with discussion and response by author)***by*Ord, Keith**431-431 A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts : Phillip A. Braun and Ilan Yaniv, Journal of behavioral decision making, 5 (1992), 217-231***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**431-432 The uses and abuses of consensus forecasts : Stephen K. McNees,Journal of forecasting, 11 (1992) 703-710***by*Armstrong, J. Scoot

### August 1993, Volume 9, Issue 2

**147-161 Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research***by*Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George**163-172 Judgemental forecasting in times of change***by*O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Ken**173-185 Forecasting replacement demand by occupation and education***by*Willems, E. J. T. A. & de Grip, A.**187-202 Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level***by*Lee, Ronald D.**203-210 Energy forecasting models, simulations and price sensitivity: New formulation***by*Elkhafif, Mahmoud A. T.**211-225 Constructing leading indicators from non-balanced sectoral business survey series***by*Entorf, Horst**227-243 On the estimation of time-series quantiles using smoothed order statistics***by*Gelinas, Rene & Lefrancois, Pierre**245-253 Forecasting the failure of component parts in computer systems: A case study***by*Gardner, Everette Jr**255-269 Long-range forecasting of IBM product revenues using a seasonal fractionally differenced ARMA model***by*Ray, Bonnie K.**271-272 Leading economic indicators: New approaches and forecasting records : Kajal Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore, eds. 1992 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 464 pp., paperback [UK pound]15.95, US$22.95, ISBN 0-521-43858-6***by*Holden, Kenneth**272-272 Dynamical systems. An introduction with applications in economics and biology : Pierre N.M. Tu, 1992 (Springer, Berlin-Heidelberg), xi + 252 pp., DM 49.80, ISBN 3-540-55780-6***by*Ray, W. D.**273-274 Nonlinear modeling and forecasting : Martin Casdagli and Stephen Eubank (eds.), 1992, (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA), 533 pp., paper-back $34.50, ISBN 0-201-58788-2***by*Chen, Rong**274-275 Forecasting elections : Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 1992, (CQ Press, Washington, DC), 163 pp., paperback $18.95, ISBN 0-8718 7-600-0***by*Stekler, H. O.**275-277 Business cycles: Theory, history, indicators, and forecasting : Victor Zarnowitz, 1992, (University of Chicago Press, Chicago), xvii + 593 pp., $70.00, ISBN 0-226-97890-7***by*Boehm, Ernst A.**277-278 Guide to forecasts and projections : Don Pallais and Stephen D. Holton, 1992, (Practitioners Publishing, Fort Worth, TX), 2 vols., $120.00***by*Forsyth, Jay D.**278-279 Selling the story: The layman's guide to collecting and communicating demographic information : William Dunn, 1992, (American Demographic Books, Ithaca, NY), 245 pp., paperback $27.50, hardback $39.95, ISBN 0-936889-14-4***by*Hamrick, Karen S.**281-283 A critique of recent papers on "Trends, random walks, and break points in macroeconomic time series"***by*Fildes, Robert**284-285 "Rule-based forecasting: Development and validation of an expert systems approach to combining time series extrapolations": Fred Collopy and J. Scott Armstrong, Management science, 38 (1992) 1394-1414***by*Chatfield, Chris**285-285 "A simple nonparameteric test of predictive performance": M. Hashem Pesaran and Allan Timmerman, Journal of business and economic statistics, 10 (1992) 461-465***by*Fildes, Robert

### April 1993, Volume 9, Issue 1

**1-3 Neural networks: Forecasting breakthrough or passing fad?***by*Chatfield, Chris**5-22 The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study***by*Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F.**23-24 A personal view of the M2-competition***by*Chatfield, Chris**24-25 Computational aspects and a personal view of the M2-competition***by*Hibon, Michele**25-26 The M2-competition: Some personal views***by*Lawrence, Michael**26-26 The M2-competition: Some personal reflections***by*Mills, Terence C.**26-28 Personal views of the M2-competition***by*Ord, J. Keith & Geriner, Pamela A. & Reilly, David & Winkel, Robert**28-29 The value of empirical work: A personal view***by*Makridakis, Spyros**31-37 Geoffrey H. Moore and dynamic statistical methods***by*Klein, Philip A.**39-48 Monitoring business conditions at the CIBCR***by*Cullity, John P.**49-60 Forecasting criminal sentencing decisions***by*Simester, Duncan I. & Brodie, Roderick J.**61-76 Forecasting the Swedish unemployment rate VAR vs. transfer function modelling***by*Edlund, Per-Olov & Karlsson, Sune**77-83 Evaluation of alternative leading indicators of British Columbia industrial employment***by*Holmes, Richard A. & Shamsuddin, Abul F. M.**85-93 The effect of additive outliers on the estimates from aggregated and disaggregated ARIMA models***by*Hotta, Luiz Koodi**95-108 Constrained forecasting in autoregressive time series models: A Bayesian analysis***by*de Alba, Enrique**109-115 The ambiguous nature of forecasts in project evaluation: Diagnosing the over-optimism of rate-of-return analysis***by*Ascher, William**117-120 Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test***by*Kolb, R. A. & Stekler, H. O.**121-129 Software reviews***by*Tashman, Leonard J. & Tashman, Peter A.**131-133 A manager's guide to technology forecasting and strategy analysis methods : Stephen M. Millett and Edward J. Honton, 1991, (Battelle Press, Columbus, OH), 99 pp. $19.95. ISBN 0 935470 63 8***by*Young, Peg**133-134 Scanning the future: A long term scenario study of the world economy 1990-2015 : Central Planning Bureau, 1992, (Sdu Publishers, The Hague), 246 pp., ISBN 9039902046***by*Hallett, Andrew Hughes**134-135 Nonlinear dynamics, chaos, and instability : William A. Brock, David A. Hsieh and Blake LeBaron, 1991, (MIT Press, Cambridge) 328, pp. [UK pound]29.25. ISBN 0-262-02329-6***by*de Gooijer, Jan G.**135-136 Forecasting for technologists and engineers : Brian C. Twiss, 1992, IEE Management of Technology Series 15 (Peter Peregrinus, London) pp. xv + 221, [UK pound]19.00 paperback. ISBN 0 86341 285 8***by*Ray, W. D.**137-137 Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives" : Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**137-138 Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources : Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**138-138 The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting : D.S. Turner, Journal of Forecasting, 9 (1990), 315-345***by*McNees, Stephen**138-139 On predictive least squares principles : C.Z. Wei, The Annals of Statistics 20 (1992), 1-42***by*De Gooijer, Jan G.

### December 1992, Volume 8, Issue 4

**543-544 Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings***by*Armstrong, J. Scott**545-557 Business planning under uncertainty: Will we attain our goal?***by*Wu, Lilian Shiao-Yen & Hosking, J. R. M. & Doll, Jeanne M.**559-573 The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters***by*Benson, P. George & Onkal, Dilek**575-582 Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities***by*Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott**583-593 An estimation model for country risk rating***by*Oral, Muhittin & Kettani, Ossama & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Daouas, Mohamed**595-611 Combining vector forecasts to predict thoroughbred horse race outcomes***by*White, Edna M. & Dattero, Ronald & Flores, Benito**613-626 Predictive accuracy of simple versus complex econometric market share models: Theoretical and empirical results***by*Danaher, Peter J. & Brodie, Roderick J.**627-633 An extended review of the X11ARIMA seasonal adjustment package***by*Scott, Stuart**635-635 Forecasting structural time series models and the kalman filter: Andrew Harvey, 1989, (Cambridge University Press), 554 pp., ISBN 0-521-32196-4***by*Fildes, Robert**635-637 Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models: Mike West and Jeff Harrison, 1989,(Springer), 704 pp., ISBN 0-387-97025-8***by*Fildes, Robert**637-637 Into the 21st century: A handbook for a sustainable future: Brian Burroughs, Alan Mayne and Paul Newbury, 1992, (Adamantine Press, London), pp. 442, softback [UK pound]15.95, hardback[UK pound]32.50***by*Miles, Ian**637-639 The next three futures: Paradigms of things to come: W. Warren Wagar, 1992,(Adamantine Press, London), pp.xxi + 165, [UK pound]13.95***by*Miles, Ian**639-641 Encyclopedia of world problems and human potential: Union of international associations, 1991, (K.G. Saur, Munich), Vol. 1, 950 pp; Vol. 2, 1188 pp., hardcover, ISBN 3-598-10842-7, US$400.00***by*Halal, William E.**641-643 Taming the future: Kenneth E.F. Watt, 1991, (Contextured Web Press, Davis, CA), pp. 163, ISBN 1-880014-01-7, US$40.00***by*Porter, Alan L.**643-644 Modeling and forecasting demand in tourism: Stephen F. Witt and Christine A. Witt, 1992, (Academic Press, London), pp. 195, ISBN 0-127-60740-4, [UK pound]35.00***by*Mahmoud, Essam**644-646 Forecasting systems for operations management: Stephen A. Delurgio and Carl D. Bhame, 1991, (Business One Irwin, Homewood, IL), pp. 648, hardback, US$49.95***by*Fields, Paul J.**646-646 The art of modeling dynamic systems: Forecasting for chaos, randomness, and determinism: F. Morrison, 1991, (Wiley-Interscience, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York), pp. 387, ISBN 0-471-52004-7, $54.95***by*Priesmeyer, H. Richard**647-648 Forecasting with dynamic regression models: Alan Pankratz, 1991, (John Wiley and Sons, New York), ISBN 0-471-61528-5, [UK pound]47.50***by*Kennedy, Peter**649-649 Journal of business research : "Analysis and comparison of financial analysts', time series, and combined forecast of annual earnings", 24 (1992) 269-280***by*Lobo, Gerald J.**649-650 Leading economic indicators: "A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates"***by*Lahiri, Kajal**650-651 Journal of the American statistics association: "Likelihood and bayesian prediction of chaotic systems", 86 (1991) 938-952***by*Berliner, L. Mark**651-652 Journal of behavioral decision making: "The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting", 5 (1992) 39-52***by*Sanders, Nada R. & Ritzman, Larry P.

### November 1992, Volume 8, Issue 3

**289-299 Population forecasting: Guest editors' introduction***by*Ahlburg, Dennis A. & Land, Kenneth C.**301-314 The magnitude of error due to different vital processes in population forecasts***by*Alho, Juha M.**315-327 Stochastic demographic forecasting***by*Lee, Ronald D.**329-338 Forecasting US population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach***by*Pflaumer, Peter**339-365 Projecting the number of new AIDS cases in the United States***by*Bloom, David E. & Glied, Sherry**367-384 The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa : Short- and long-term projections***by*Bos, Eduard & Bulatao, Rodolfo A.**385-391 Stochastic population forecasts and their uses***by*Tuljapurkar, Shripad**393-411 Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality***by*Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D.**413-432 Forecasting cause-specific mortality using time series methods***by*McNown, Robert & Rogers, Andrei**433-458 Projecting the future size and health status of the US elderly population***by*Manton, Kenneth G. & Stallard, Eric & Singer, Burt**459-476 Immigration and immigrant generations in population projections***by*Edmonston, Barry & Passel, Jeffrey S.**477-493 Predicting childlessness for recent cohorts of American women***by*Morgan, S. Philip & Chen, Renbao**495-508 Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states***by*Smith, Stanley K. & Sincich, Terry**509-527 A comparison of four methods for projecting households***by*Mason, Andrew & Racelis, Rachel**529-539 Into the twenty-first century with British households***by*Spicer, Keith & Diamond, Ian & Ni Bhrolchain, Marie

### October 1992, Volume 8, Issue 2

**135-156 Some recent developments in non-linear time series modelling, testing, and forecasting***by*De Gooijer, Jan G. & Kumar, Kuldeep**157-173 On continuous-time threshold autoregression***by*Brockwell, P. J. & Hyndman, R. J.**175-185 An object oriented approach to forecasting***by*Assimakopoulos, Vassilis & Konida, Alexandra**187-199 Non-cointegration and causality: Implications for VAR modeling***by*Shoesmith, Gary L.**201-217 Forecasting economic activity rates***by*Briscoe, G. & Wilson, R.