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The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results

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  • Koning, Alex J.
  • Franses, Philip Hans
  • Hibon, Michele
  • Stekler, H.O.

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  • Koning, Alex J. & Franses, Philip Hans & Hibon, Michele & Stekler, H.O., 2005. "The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 397-409.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:21:y:2005:i:3:p:397-409
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
    2. Stekler, H. O., 1991. "Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 375-384, November.
    3. Soong, W. C., 2001. "Exact simultaneous confidence intervals for multiple comparisons with the mean," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 33-47, July.
    4. Flores, Benito E. & Pearce, Stephen L., 2000. "The use of an expert system in the M3 competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 485-496.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting," MPRA Paper 81664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gorr, Wilpen L. & Schneider, Matthew J., 2013. "Large-change forecast accuracy: Reanalysis of M3-Competition data using receiver operating characteristic analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 274-281.
    3. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Trapero, Juan R., 2014. "Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 291-302.
    4. repec:eee:touman:v:31:y:2010:i:6:p:891-897 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bergmeir, Christoph & Hyndman, Rob J. & Benítez, José M., 2016. "Bagging exponential smoothing methods using STL decomposition and Box–Cox transformation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 303-312.
    6. Crone, Sven F. & Hibon, Michèle & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2011. "Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 635-660, July.
    7. Ord, Keith, 2007. "Comments on "significance tests harm progress in forecasting"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 331-332.
    8. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817707.
    9. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2009. "Forecasting Sales," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    10. Fiorucci, Jose A. & Pellegrini, Tiago R. & Louzada, Francisco & Petropoulos, Fotios & Koehler, Anne B., 2016. "Models for optimising the theta method and their relationship to state space models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1161.
    11. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    12. Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2014. "On intermittent demand model optimisation and selection," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 180-190.
    13. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Significance tests harm progress in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 321-327.
    14. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "Significance tests harm progress in forecasting: Comment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 329-330.
    15. Yelland, Phillip M., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting of parts demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 374-396, April.
    16. Robert R. Andrawis & Amir F. Atiya, 2009. "A new Bayesian formulation for Holt's exponential smoothing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 218-234.

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