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Bayesian predictions of low count time series

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  • McCabe, B.P.M.
  • Martin, G.M.

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  • McCabe, B.P.M. & Martin, G.M., 2005. "Bayesian predictions of low count time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 315-330.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:21:y:2005:i:2:p:315-330
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kurt Brannas & Jorgen Hellstrom, 2001. "Generalized Integer-Valued Autoregression," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 425-443.
    2. J. Durbin & S. J. Koopman, 2000. "Time series analysis of non-Gaussian observations based on state space models from both classical and Bayesian perspectives," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 3-56.
    3. Keith Freeland & Brendan McCabe & Gael Martin, 2004. "Testing for Dependence in Non-Gaussian Time Series Data," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 313, Econometric Society.
    4. Freeland, R. K. & McCabe, B. P. M., 2004. "Forecasting discrete valued low count time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 427-434.
    5. R. K. Freeland & B. P. M. McCabe, 2004. "Analysis of low count time series data by poisson autoregression," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 701-722, September.
    6. Robert C. Jung & A. R. Tremayne, 2003. "Testing for serial dependence in time series models of counts," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 65-84, January.
    7. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward & Winkelmann, Rainer, 1998. "Posterior simulation and Bayes factors in panel count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-54, June.
    8. Kleibergen, Frank, 2004. "Invariant Bayesian inference in regression models that is robust against the Jeffreys-Lindley's paradox," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 227-258, December.
    9. Chib, Siddhartha & Winkelmann, Rainer, 2001. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis of Correlated Count Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 428-435, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ng, Jason & Forbes, Catherine S. & Martin, Gael M. & McCabe, Brendan P.M., 2013. "Non-parametric estimation of forecast distributions in non-Gaussian, non-linear state space models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 411-430.
    2. Claudia Czado & Tilmann Gneiting & Leonhard Held, 2009. "Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 1254-1261, December.
    3. Snyder, Ralph D. & Ord, J. Keith & Beaumont, Adrian, 2012. "Forecasting the intermittent demand for slow-moving inventories: A modelling approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 485-496.
    4. Yelland, Phillip M., 2009. "Bayesian forecasting for low-count time series using state-space models: An empirical evaluation for inventory management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 95-103, March.
    5. Francesco Bravo, 2011. "Comment on: Subsampling weakly dependent time series and application to extremes," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 20(3), pages 483-486, November.
    6. Feike C. Drost & Ramon van den Akker & Bas J. M. Werker, 2009. "Efficient estimation of auto-regression parameters and innovation distributions for semiparametric integer-valued AR("p") models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 467-485.
    7. Yelland, Phillip M., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting of parts demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 374-396, April.
    8. Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009. "It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
    9. Jan G. De Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    10. Jung, Robert C. & Tremayne, A.R., 2006. "Coherent forecasting in integer time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-238.
    11. Feigin, Paul D. & Gould, Phillip & Martin, Gael M. & Snyder, Ralph D., 2008. "Feasible parameter regions for alternative discrete state space models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(17), pages 2963-2970, December.
    12. Bisaglia, Luisa & Canale, Antonio, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric forecasting for INAR models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 70-78.
    13. Víctor Enciso-Mora & Peter Neal & T. Subba Rao, 2009. "Efficient order selection algorithms for integer-valued ARMA processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, January.
    14. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    15. Bu, Ruijun & McCabe, Brendan, 2008. "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in INAR(p) models: A likelihood-based Markov Chain approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 151-162.
    16. Jonas Andersson & Dimitris Karlis, 2010. "Treating missing values in INAR(1) models: An application to syndromic surveillance data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 12-19, January.
    17. Vance L. Martin & Andrew R. Tremayne & Robert C. Jung, 2014. "Efficient Method Of Moments Estimators For Integer Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 491-516, November.
    18. Brajendra C. Sutradhar, 2008. "On forecasting counts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 109-129.
    19. Ralph D. Snyder & Gael M. Martin & Phillip Gould & Paul D. Feigin, 2007. "An Assessment of Alternative State Space Models for Count Time Series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    20. T M Christensen & A. S. Hurn & K A Lindsay, 2008. "Discrete time-series models when counts are unobservable," NCER Working Paper Series 35, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    21. Wei Wei & Leonhard Held, 2014. "Calibration tests for count data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(4), pages 787-805, December.
    22. Andersson, Jonas & Karlis, Dimitris, 2008. "Treating missing values in INAR(1) models," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.

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