On forecasting counts
Forecasting for a time series of low counts, such as forecasting the number of patents to be awarded to an industry, is an important research topic in socio-economic sectors. Recently (2004), Freeland and McCabe introduced a Gaussian type stationary correlation model-based forecasting which appears to work well for the stationary time series of low counts. In practice, however, it may happen that the time series of counts will be non-stationary and also the series may contain over-dispersed counts. To develop the forecasting functions for this type of non-stationary over-dispersed data, the paper provides an extension of the stationary correlation models for Poisson counts to the non-stationary correlation models for negative binomial counts. The forecasting methodology appears to work well, for example, for a US time series of polio counts, whereas the existing Bayesian methods of forecasting appear to encounter serious convergence problems. Further, a simulation study is conducted to examine the performance of the proposed forecasting functions, which appear to work well irrespective of whether the time series contains small or large counts. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Harvey, Andrew C & Fernandes, C, 1989. "Time Series Models for Count or Qualitative Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(4), pages 407-417, October.
- Freeland, R. K. & McCabe, B. P. M., 2004. "Forecasting discrete valued low count time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 427-434.
- R. K. Freeland & B. P. M. McCabe, 2004. "Analysis of low count time series data by poisson autoregression," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 701-722, 09.
- Harvey, Andrew C & Fernandes, C, 1989. "Time Series Models for Count or Qualitative Observations: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(4), pages 422-422, October.
- McCabe, B.P.M. & Martin, G.M., 2005. "Bayesian predictions of low count time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 315-330.
- Vandna Jowaheer, 2002. "Analysing longitudinal count data with overdispersion," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 389-399, June.
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